11/26/24
Good Tuesday morning,
The rain here really has not materialized to this point, but it is extremely interesting how much rain has fallen just to the north.
Pismo beach has seen 2.5 inches. Paseo 2 inches and normally drier Santa Maria has seen an inch. Here just a little over ΒΌ of an inch and only 1/10 of an inch yesterday.
The reason for this is the low has not pushed the moisture stream over us, as it has stayed to the north. The parent lows circulation is not even noticeable any more
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/ Current radar shows rain continuing to the North over Santa Maria https://radar.weather.gov/station/KVBX/standard
Today a warm start to the day 57 degrees in SB and in Santa Ynez. I do think we will finally see rain, but lighter amounts as a southerly moisture will reach us mid-morning today. Today we should see around ΒΌ of an inch locally.
Rainfall will remain lighter more Seattle like, with light rain and drizzle. Rain chances will end tonight and Wednesday we will see the sun again, just in time for the holiday. Wednesday should be in the upper 60s to 70 degrees and Thanksgiving day a light Santa Ana event will begin to warm us up through the rest of the week, with highs into the low 70s. It will be one of the Holidays that we can go to the beach and send photos and videos to family in the Midwest and on the East coast.
Dry weather is expected through the week, and it will be a great holiday weekend to be in Santa Barbara.
All in all we will call this a fire drill for rain chances since we have talked about it, and it really has been extremely light.
The Thanksgiving holiday is fast approaching so letβs gear up for sunshine and great weather
Enjoy, we will talk about warmer and sun on Wednesday
Light rain is falling at my Goleta yard https://ring.com/share/fca74d52-d130-43a6-b0bf-4c9ec47cfd7d
Jack Martin
11/22/24
Good Friday morning,
This morning in Santa Barbara changes are in the air with dampness and fog to start the day. Santa Barbara is warmer this morning because of the marine layer, but Santa Ynez is a chilly 36 degrees.
Today will be the last day of dryness for the extended forecast. Models appear to be aligned with wet weather through the period.
Rain will start up over night and totals have increased slightly for the first system. SLO and SB are looking at 1/3 to 3/4 tonight and Saturday.
Saturday night and Sunday we will see a break, before the next wave arrives Sunday night through Tuesday now. Trends are increasing the rain totals through the period to last longer and increase the total to 1.5 inches and some areas in the hills could see up to 3 inches.
It looks like rain will persist through Tuesday then only a slight chance Wednesday and on thanksgiving day. For the most part it will be dry.
It does appear we will see lots of Action and the first larger rainfall Sunday night into Tuesday.
Action will have teams in place in case we you need help during the upcoming rains.
Stay dry, enjoy the rain and turn off the sprinklers, you will not need them for awhile.
Jack Martin
11/21/24
Good Thursday morning,
One week from today is Thanksgiving, crazy that the holiday season is upon us.
With the holiday season each year the rainy season begins, it is hard to believe it has been 6 months since we have seen rain.
Northern California has been getting hammered with rain, but the low pressure is staying to the north and will not move much, which will make the totals and intensity less for us for this first system of the season. https://zoom.earth/
We are very spoiled in southern California thinking we can go this long without real rain. Sure we have had drizzle and some light stuff, but this will be the first real rain.
The good news is the rain intensity and total are getting clearer, and we will now see minimal amounts of rain to start the first real system.
It looks like we will see rain start up overnight Friday, and into Saturday. How much, well here in SB 1/2 an inch to 1 inch of rain during the Friday and Saturday period.
Ventura to LA ΒΌ to ΒΎ Saturday. Rain rates will be minimal with 1/10 to ΒΌ of an inch per hour. This will be helpful in the burn areas in Camarillo.
Sunday is a little more in doubt, but it looks like a mostly dry day until Sunday night. Then the low should begin to move towards us bringing more rain Sunday night into Monday. Looks like another ΒΌ to Β½ inch. All in all SB should see 1 inch or less over the entire period.
Monday it is possible to see rain to start the day, depending on how the low moves.
Tuesday and Wednesday are still not clear, but it looks like somewhat dry weather into early December.
Ok time to get ready for the first rain, but the next 2 days will be dry until Friday night. today will be warm and sunny.
TURN OFF YOUR SPRINKERS for at least the next week π
Jack Martin
11/20/24
ο»ΏGood Wednesday morning,
Wow, just look at this monster of a low pressure system to the north
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=38.1,-142,3.84z
This will be affecting NorCal for the next few days , it will arrive in SOcal late Friday.
We are expecting 3 different impulses of rain between Friday night into Monday.
For now we have 3 days before the rain starts, but it is game on in Northern California.
They are going to get hammered with rain the next 2 to 3 days and lots of snow above 6500 feet.
For us, no Action till Friday night. Just colder weather as we have had all week.
We will skip the next few days forecast, because there is nothing really to talk about.
Friday will be transition day, no rain during the day, but rain likeliness starts up Friday night and goes through the weekend.
Looks like 3 different impulses, as the low pressure system pumps in the moisture.
Where the rain totals are not clear at this point, trends have been rising upwards for more totals. Right now we are looking at 3/4 to 1.5 inches in our area.
This will be more defined over the next few days, but we will see out first real system this weekend.
As always stay tuned more to come Thursday morning β¦
Jack Martin
11/19/24
ο»ΏAnother very chilly start to the day, especially in the valleys where it is 35 degrees.
Some warming today as the sun rises and heats the surface, but highs will remain in the 60s. The next 3 days overall will be nice and dry conditions through Thursday. However we will see our first rains of the season this weekend. We are looking at 100% chance for rain.
Take a look at the Pacific Northwest with lots of snow and heavy rain due to the atmospheric river over them right now https://search.app/skaWEGHwXp5jyaUu9
βThanks Steven β
Looking at zoom earth you can see the huge system in the Pacific Northwest that will sag over the next few days and hammer nor cal. Zoom Earth | Live Weather Map &
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=38.1,-142,3.84z
This will bring days of rain to NorCal before reaching us late Friday into Saturday.
Where this low pressure system combines with sub tropical moisture to the north, we will only see the tail end of this system. Expect rain to start up on the central coast Friday morning. They will see the majority of the rain with approximately 1.25 inches in a 12 hour period. As it drops towards up we will see rain chance increase to 100% but rain totals we drop to 1/2 to 3/4 of an inch over our area. Santa Ynez will see the higher amounts and SB a little less.
There will also be another chance for a system early thanksgiving week.
Bottom line stay tuned, lots of updates to follow.
Enjoy the sun while it lasts
Jack Martin
11/18/24
Good Monday morning,
Chilly out there this morning, 37 in Santa Ynez and 48 in Santa Barbara.
A cold system in the Pacific northwest will do nothing more for us then bring on more winds here https://zoom.earth/
North winds will pick up today 25 to 35 miles and hour. As we get into our week, we will see the winds shift to the Northeast creating another Santa Ana event.
It will be a weak Santa ana event, so nothing crazy. This will be quite a cool week, with freezing temps for valleys over night and highs only in the 60s. 3 to 6 degrees below normal
The good news is the mountain fire is now out.
It looks like not much excitement this week, Thursday a weak ridge builds in, but it breaks down on Friday.
Now the excitement begins over the weekend. Our first rain is looking likely sometime this weekend.
A cold low will drop over the area likely Saturday or Sunday. this will bring heavy rain to the north, but as it drops south the punch goes away.
It looks like SLO mountains will see 1 to 2 inches. SLO ΒΎ of an inch and Santa Barbara ΒΌ to Β½ inch.
Rain chances will also be going into the Thanksgiving week. The exact timing is still under review, but it does look like we will finally see our first system of this season.
Stay tuned, more Action updates to come.
Jack Martin
11/14/24
ο»ΏGood Thursday morning,
Lots of Action in the forecast, but no rain.
Another chilly start to the day, with 49 degrees in Santa Barbara and 36 in Santa Ynez.
I was in Santa Ynez at my grand daughter’s soccer scrimmage yesterday, and wow, as soon as the sun went down, it got cold.
Low pressure will drop south today with an inland track. What this really means is winds starting later today from the northwest 30 to 50 miles an hour in the mountains. Rain chance on the central coast, but really none here.
Friday a very chilly day with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s and frost at night in the valleys.
Saturday we begin a warm up with light off shore winds and a warning trend into into early next week. Highs will rise back into the 70s.
Tuesday into Wednesday trends are for another moderate to strong Santa Ana wind event. This means high fire danger again.
It is that time of year when this occurs every year in the fall to early winter months, creating our wild fire danger.
I think it was Johnny Carson that said we have 4 seasons in California. Fire, wind, rain, and earthquake.
This week is a full moon, look outside and check it out it would be Crystal clear for viewing. The fireball moon https://search.app/9DGpUHkLh4eJMeaz8 π
Jack Martin
11/13/24
ο»ΏGood Wednesday morning,
Tuesday was just a beautiful day after the winds Monday night. Views from some of the roofs we are working on were fantastic
Another week is flying by. Today it is very chilly in Santa Ynez at 36 degrees, and Santa Barbara 50 degrees, 14 degrees warmer. Today with the sun warming us up everyone will see low to mid 70s. Santa Ynez will be 76 degrees today thatβs a 40 degrees temperature change, Santa Barbara, 74. This will be the warmest and nicest day of the week.
Thursday a low pressure system starts to track south https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/
It has been wet in the Pacific Northwest of late, but all systems have been dying out as they move south. This will be the case with the next system arriving Thursday into Friday morning. Moisture starved and the tail end of the system spells little to no rain for us. Just like the last system, some in SLO and very little south. Maybe a slightly better chance for up to 1/10 of an inch in SB county.
The weekend looks like some wind and slight chance for showers over the mountains.
Cooler air will keep all temps in the 60s and chilly nights.
Next week, no real Action in site. Another Santa Ana wind event possible on Wednesday, but any chance of rain is not likely.
It is Looking like dry weather through most of next week β¦
The mountain fire is now 65% contained, so that is good news.
Happy hump day, chat soon
Jack Martin
11/12/24
Good Tuesday morning,
The weather system on Monday moved through and brought a little rain to SLo but none here. Only wind as predicted.
Today the winds shift south with a mild Santa Ana wind event 20 to 30 miles an hour an hour winds, affecting the fire areas, but it will be short lived.
Wednesday will be nice, warm and the warmest day of the week as a weak ridge builds in.
Thursday the next system approaches with a chance for light rain. This system is also moisture starved, so only a little bit of rain is possible. This appears to arrive Thursday night at best, but likely will bring showers possibilities into the weekend.
Not a lot of rain regardless but models will come together as the week progresses.
Looking at all the Action, rain has been staying in the Pacific Northwest through recent. This is a likely trend through the period and we will see when we see the shift.
In the meantime, we will see winds and some light rains as these systems only brush our area.
As far as temps go, chilly nights, especially in the valleys and warmer days as the sun warms the earth. 30s and 40s at night and upper 60s to low 70s by day.
Have a great Tuesday, talk soon
Jack Martin
11/11/24
Good Monday morning,
A new work week for some and a government holiday for others.
The weather is not taking the day off, as there is a weak weather system moving through later today. Not a lot of excitement with this one as rain dies out in SLO and only a low chance in SB county. 1/4 or less in SLO and maybe 1/10 in Santa Ynez, but I donβt think it will make it to Santaβs Barbara. What we will get is the wing tonight and Tuesday.
https://zoom.earth/
Expect the winds to pick up this evening from 20 to 35 miles an hour from the northwest as we see typically in sundowner events. Both tonight and Tuesday.
Chilly nights and cool days.
Wednesday and Thursday a weak ridge, then Friday through Sunday another chance of rain.
More to come on that, but gut to get rolling on my busy day
Jack Martin
11/7/24
Not a great Thursday morning for those to the south affected by the π₯ fire.
I was driving through last night on route 1 at 7pm and the hills were lite up with red from fire and firetrucks. The threat we had on Wednesday sadly comes to attrition with a spark and high Santa Ana winds. They have one more day before the winds start to back off and likely by later this afternoon.
Today it starting out quite chilly with 43 degrees at my house and it will warm to 74.
Winds continue to the south with 60 mile an hour gusts. Here fairly calm, but in wind sheltered areas like Santaβs Ynez it is cold at 35 degrees. No A/C needed this morning.
Weather after today gets better for the fire danger, but will remain chilly at night and cooler days in the upper 60s.
As we get further into the weekend there will be a series of weak systems that should bring cooler weather and north winds. Rain chances are possible early next week, but at this point it does not seem like much. As always we will follow the weather and have more update.
You will need a jacket or sweatshirt to start the day
Jack Martin
11/6/24
Today is all about Santa Ana winds blowing from Ventura, south into LA.
High wind warnings are on from now into Thursday with the highest wind rates through the day. This also brings high fire danger for all areas where Santaβs ana winds occur.
https://www.weather.gov/lox/
Here in SB really no affect here. It will be warm through Saturday with no wind here.
Highs in the low to mid 70s and lows in the 50s.
Just over the hill in Santa Ynez cold nights, in the mid 30s, then warm days in the mid 70s. Quite a change in temps day tonight.
Looking into the weekend and early next week, there will be a series of weak systems that will bring us a chance for rain Monday into Tuesday. We will need to watch this closely and how much rain we will see.
In the meantime enjoy SB and hang onto your hats Ventura south.
Jack Martin
11/4/24
Good Monday morning,
Are you ready for winds?
https://www.weather.gov/lox/
It will not be crazy in Santa Barbara, but in Santa Ana wind areas it will.
Just to the south, Ventura south it is going to blow hard. 55 to 80 miles and hour in the mountains, and 35 to 50 miles an hour in the mountains.
This will bring on extremely high fire danger in those locations, and likely power outages.
These will arrive tonight with northeast winds, then another round of northeast winds Wednesday into Thursday.
Overall in Santa Barbara a nice week with highs in the low 70s and lows in the 50s. winds will NOT be a factor here.
To the south it is all about the winds, both tonight, and then again Wednesday and Thursday.
Santa Ynez, chilly nights with lows around 40 degrees and highs around 75.
Have a great week!
Jack Martin
11/1/24
Good Friday morning,
Wow November first! Halloween was last night and October ended, it is November 1st today and let the holiday season begin.
It is crazy to think that Thanksgiving is 27 days away and Christmas 54 days. So letβs have some fun for a Friday morning.
Who is the queen of Christmas these days, well watch this video for 2024 and you will know, this is fun and brings in the holiday season.
https://youtu.be/XpSdD63j7Y4?si=pwX3GAz0wKOO_u9h
Thank you Mariah Carey.
I hope everyone is ready for the weekend, so here is the forecast.
Today, a weak dying front is moving towards us. With all the talk of rain this week, rain is not looking good here in Santa Barbara any longer.
It does look like the central coast will see a little rain overnight Friday into Saturday morning. maybe 1/10 to max ΒΌ inch.
The Santa Ynez valley will also see some light rain, but 1/10 is about it. As the front rounds point conception it falls apart, with no southern wind support.
Just a quick explanation… βsouth winds will trigger some warmer subtropical moisture in a perfect condition, with our mountains facing south causes more rain. North winds will create a rain shadow for us which any rain that is in the air, drops north of our coastal mountainsβ
This means really no rain for Santa Barbara. There is still a 40% a Chance we will see some light stuff, but 1/10 or less, what this system will really do is bring on wind Saturday night. Expect North winds to come up Saturday late in the day and Saturday night. This will make Sunday a super day with clear skies and a great day for the Santa Barbara Β½ marathon. Temps this weekend and into next week will be cooler, but perfect running weather. Highs in Santa Barbara will be in the mid to upper 60s and lows in the 50s. In Santa Ynez, a little cooler and warmer by day. highs will be in the low 70s and lows in the 40s with some upper 30s.
We also must bring up early Sunday morning. 3 am, we turn the clocks back to 2am. This is good news for the 7am start to the Β½ marathon but bad for our late afternoons because day light end in the 5pm hour. Now letβs think about when we will see rain. In a nutshell not next week. We will see some winds only with a true Santa Ana wind event likely Monday and Tuesday (fire weather). If you really are looking forward to our first rain in sometime, it will likely be mid-November before that happens.
In the meantime, have a great weekend. and make sure you watch this video ; it will make you smile https://youtu.be/XpSdD63j7Y4?si=pwX3GAz0wKOO_u9h
Most of all have a great weekend!
Jack Martin