11/29/22
Good Tuesday morning,
One day closer to the rain, as we try to tighten up the forecast.
We have 2 different systems that will affect us this week, likely Thursday through Sunday. The first is a warm front coming off the pacific with some subtropical moisture attached. The second is colder with less rain potential, but some downpours are possible. So let’s start with today.
Today will be the warmest day of the week with a mild offshore wind and an overall nice day.
Tonight and Wednesday colder air was going to bring us a chilly night, but models are backing off a little on the cold. It will still be chilly.
Wednesday the change starts. The exact timing of the rain is not 100%, because there might be some rain ahead of the front that can affect LA to Santa Barbara late Wednesday into Wednesday night. 20 to 30% chance.
Thursday is the day of the heaviest rain. Again the exact timing is Thursday morning into the later afternoon. When it does start it will produce good rain totals. 1 to 2 inches coastal, 4 inches in the mountains, and 5 inches on south-facing hills like Santa Barbara. This will also come with some south winds to enhance the rainfall and blow it from the southeast. Snow levels will be higher and above 6000 feet
Friday showers then a break into Saturday. The timing again with the second system from the Pacific Northwest is Saturday night into Sunday. This is a colder system with not as much rain. Snow levels will drop with this system. Rain totals are not clear at this point.
That’s the Latest update, Rick you might be saved for Saturday’s rain but don’t give up the tent.
Enjoy the rain, it is time to turn off the sprinklers again
Jack Martin
11/8/22
Good Tuesday morning,
Last night after the rain stopped, the clouds parted for a great sunset from the freeway.
Rain!! What a wonderful word for California. We saw light to moderate rain Monday and last night.
Rain totals are a good start for the storm, but the real rain will come later in the day. So far mountain areas have seen around an inch of rain and local areas ½ inch.
Montecito is approaching an inch so far. https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/lox/scripts/getlocal.php?prod=LAXRRMSBA
Earlier this morning rain was falling locally, but the bulk of the rain is over LA and San Francisco right now.
Zoom Earth shows it well https://zoom.earth/Â Today we are expecting lots of additional rain and extremely heavy later in the day.
Rain will resume in our area around 7 am hour and it will pick up throughout the day. This afternoon we will see the heaviest rain with rates in a few locations later this afternoon can see 1 to 1.5 inches per hour and .50 to .75 in 20 minutes, yes that is a downpour.
Rain will continue through tonight then taper off Wednesday morning. All in all, we will have great totals for November.
1 to 3 inches coastal, 2 to 5 in foothills and mountains, and up to 6 inches on south-facing mountains “yes thats SB mountains“.
Enjoy the fun, we will have totals for you on Wednesday morning.
Be careful on the road, there were lots of accidents yesterday.
Jack Martin
11/3/22
Good Thursday morning,
Chilly and windy out there. Did you feel the winds last night? It was rocking my outside TV with the wind at 40 miles an hour last night.
There is a brush fire in Goleta near Ward Dr. burning some of the eucalyptus trees fueled by the winds.
Today we will see the Northwest winds start to shift to the Northeast and bring us a cold Santa Ana wind even into the weekend
Tonight will be the coldest night with Santa Ynez falling to 32 degrees, here in SB we will see a chilly low 40s.
Highs will get into the mid to upper 60s which will keep it sweater weather through the weekend.
All eyes are now on the mid-range forecast with a weather system coming in early next week.
All 5 models are calling for rain at this point, with good results of 2 to 3 inches in the mountains and ½ to 1 ½ along the coast. The only question at this point is which day or days the system will arrive. It is looking like Sunday night to Wednesday.
This next system will tap into some tropical moisture, so results for a good rain are looking better.
We need the rain to bring it on, even if it is messing with my schedule.
As always stay tuned here is a nice sunrise photo from Ed yesterday
Jack Martin
11/1/22
Good Tuesday morning,
November first has arrived and so will our first rain for the season. https://zoom.earth/#view=45.8,-98.9,4z/map=live
This storm will hit late in the day and will move through quickly and it will be over by Wednesday morning.
It looks like a 2-to-3-hour period of rain tonight, and over by 11 pm. We will see a typical 1/10 to ¼ of an inch. This is very typical for the first system that comes right around every Halloween.
The next event will be the wind and cold air. This is a cold system so temps today will be 8 to 15 degrees below normal.
Wednesday will be 15 to 20 degrees below normal; some mountain areas will even see some snow, with snow levels at 3500 feet.
Wednesday night through Thursday night will be quite windy with winds blowing 20 to 40 miles an hour with gusts of 60 in the mountains.
Friday through the weekend is dry with seasonable weather, nothing exciting.
Models are not clear, there could be a weak system Sunday into Monday that could bring a little more rain, but confidence is low at this point, stay tuned !!!
Enjoy the first real rain of the season, just enough to turn off your sprinklers for the rest of the week ☹
Jack Martin