Friday Forecast
Good Friday morning,
What a wild Thursday it was. The last storm system is gone now, but it brought us everything Mother Nature has.
We had almost 2 inches along the coast, 3 inches in Montecito, and 5 inches on the pass.
There was also thunder, lighting, and down pours with crazy winds.
The good news is the down pours lasted for 15 minutes or less, so the creeks could handel it.
This is good news for Montecito, as you might be able to sleep better in rain storms. This was a good test.
Skies have cleared and today will be dry.
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
Another system will bring light rain on Saturday. This will be very weak with north flow, so there is no moisture to tap into. Rain totals will be less than 1/4 inch.
Sunday through Tuesday will remain dry, with a weak ridge in place.
Wednesday into Thursday, the next rain event arrives.
It is too early to call, but this might be a decent soaker. Models and timing vary at this point.
One has rain Wednesday and heavier rain, the other has it Thursday and lighter.
All the facts will come into play by Monday.
In the meantime, have a good weekend.
We will update Sunday.
Rain …. Rain and More Rain
Good Thursday morning,
You know you got up too early when you have to wait for the 3 am forecast to come online. But here it is.
Winner, winner is Santa Barbara and the mountains. Over 3 inches have fallen so far on San Marcus pass. The city has received more than 1.18 as of 3 am. These totals will just keep climbing as the day goes on.
https://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/images/countyPrecipMaps/santabarbara_24HRprecip.png
The good news is the rain has not been too much too fast. No reason for flooding at this point.
The loser is Ventura County. The rain has not hit them hard at this point.
The good news is the jet is aimed right at them, so the rain is going to pick up there shortly.
So what is going to happen today?
The wind will come up from the south. It is getting windy right now at 3:30 am. Rain will continue till around 11 am this morning.
Then it will turn to showers this afternoon and tonight. Looks like we will have some thunder showers later in the day.
Where they do occur, rain will be heavy. The good news is they will be short lived, so will end quickly.
Wind is going to be around all day, these will be from the south, enhancing the rain over the mountains.
Rain ends tonight.
Friday will be dry and breezy.
Saturday, more rain. This will be lighter with only 1/4 of an inch.
Sunday through Tuesday will be dry and cooler.
Wednesday and Thursday next week is looking wet, this will be the next system to knock on our door.
All eyes are on the current weather. Rain total are only going to climb more as sunrise approaches. Stay off the San Marcus pass this morning.
I am betting there are plenty of mud and rock slides. Use the 101 instead.
Enjoy the rain; it will be part of our lives for the next 4 months. We are off to a good start for the rainy season.
Good Wednesday Morning
Are you ready for rain? Ready or not here it comes.
The first of 2 systems will arrive today, with the heaviest rain over night.
The first system is moving into SLO this morning. They should start to see rain around 9 am.
Rain will sag south and light rain could start up as easily as early afternoon.
This first system will only drop lighter rain.
The second system that is right on the heels of the first will see heavy rain between midnight and 4am.
This will bring a few hours of heavy rain.
Thursday will also be a wet day. We are expecting showers into the evening.
Rain on Thursday will be mixed with subtropical moisture; this will provide more moisture and the heavier rain.
Yes, this is a component of El Niño . Maybe the beginning of a very wet season as far as totals go.
1 to 2 inches coastal and valleys, 3 to 4 inches in the mountains. Especially south facing.
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
Thursday night we clear out. Friday will be dry, but another system for Saturday.
This next system looks to be much weaker with totals of 1/4 inch.
Rain rates will be .25 to .50 per hour, so creeks should be able to handle this fine.
Enjoy the rain….
We will talk about how much rain we received on Thursday morning, it will be wet.
Rain Update – Tuesday Morning
Good morning,
We are looking at a carbon copy of last week’s storm, as far as timing goes. Rain will start up Wednesday afternoon.
The only difference is we will see greater rain totals out of this next system.
Here is the sky view
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
Now with the details
Today, dry and warm. Off shore flow turns onshore and changes begin. Nice day overall.
Wednesday is transition day. Low pressure drops from the north. Rain will begin over SLO in the morning and arrive in the later afternoon to SB.
Areas south will see it a few hours later and Santa Ynez likely in the earlier afternoon.
Wednesday night will bring us heavier rain. Subtropical moisture will pull in from the west and combine with the low.
There will also be wind with this system, from the south.
This will increase the rain totals along the SLO and Santa Barbara hills.
Rain totals.
Still sticking with 1/2 to 2 inches coastal and up to 3 inches in the mountains.
Thursday the rain turns to showers, it will also be windy at times. Rain ends Thursday afternoon.
Friday, more wind as the system clears out.
Saturday another system rolls in. This system has less moisture to work with, so expect 1/2 of the amount from Wednesday and Thursday.
Regarding Wednesday and Thursday’s system.
I think we will see in excess of 1 inch in Santa Barbara. Rain rates per hour are still to be under the 1/2 inch.
So burn areas in Montecito should be fine.
The most important area to watch is the Santa Monica mountains.
One model shows the greatest amount of rain there. With the freshly burned areas, this could cause trouble.
We will just need to watch this as the clock ticks closer.
In the meantime, get ready for rain. 36 hours and counting.
Have a great day.
Work Week Forecast
Good Monday morning,
It is time to pick up where we left off last week. I hope everyone had a nice holiday and break.
Now it’s Monday morning and everyone will be back in Action.
We are looking at 2 days of good weather before rain moves in later on Wednesday.
For today and Tuesday, we will see 70s and a few areas with low 80s.
Off shore winds today, with some gusts or 40 miles an hour in Ventura and south.
Tuesday, some high clouds will start to roll in as the off shore event goes away.
Wednesday, the next storm system will roll down the coast. This is looking pretty impressive for this time of year.
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
Rain will arrive sometime Wednesday. At this point it looks like late in the day. We will need to watch how it develops.
This system should tap into some sub-tropical moisture, creating a good rain maker.
At this point they are still pointing at 1/2 to 2 inches, however, with Santa Barbara’s south facing mountains, I think we will easily see more than an inch.
Rain will end sometime Thursday. Then Friday will be cool and windy.
For the weekend, it now looks like we will have another system roll though.
Rain in northern areas for sure, we will watch and see how far south it drops.
Have a good work week, and get ready for more rain.
Rain Update
Good Wednesday morning,
Here is our next weather system, spinning down the coast in the pacific.
This system has some counter clockwise rotation and will tap into the subtropical jet.
You can see the clouds being pulled up from the south.
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
The low however, is still too far north to cause heavy rain now. As the day progresses the low will move closer to our area and create heavier rain. For this morning we might see some light rain from Ventura to SLO. This is mainly a northern event with up to 2/10 in SLO. For us, a few hundredths of an inch. Very light drizzle…
Late this afternoon the rain arrives. This will hit hardest in SLO, but our area will still see good rain totals. Looks like rain will start up in Santa Barbara late in the afternoon. Rain will fall steady for a 3 to 5 hour period and end overnight. Expect 1/2 to 3/4 for Santa Barbara and up to 1 1/2 in SLO. Ventura around 1/2 inch and the same for points south. Santa Barbara hills may see upwards of an inch, due to south winds and the mountains catching the clouds.
This will be a mild event in the freshly burned areas, so that’s good news.
Thursday, dry and cool. Rain is over until through at least next Tuesday. At this point it looks like Friday’s system will stay to the north, and not affect our area. Maybe SLO but not down here.
The weekend will be dry and sunny; off shore flow may develop late in the weekend into next week.
Nor Cal is going to get some much needed rain. The fires to the north has made air quality in the Bay Area like ours was last year.
Rain and wind will improve the air. This will be a nice thanksgiving for them. It has been bad for more than a week.
Ok that’s it for today. I am off to Palm Springs this afternoon, with my kids and 2 new grand babies.
Hope everyone has a great Thanksgiving. We will catch up Thursday with rain totals.
Enjoy the rain and Happy Thanksgiving.
Tuesday 20th of November Forecast
Good Tuesday morning,
The low pressure system that brought us high clouds yesterday is now over the Baja and moving into Arizona.
This will create a little southern flow, before the rain arrives on Wednesday.
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
Today will start out with clouds, and then we will clear to sunny skies.
Tonight the low pressure system moves closer. The rain will really start up later in the afternoon on Wednesday now.
There could be a few pre-frontal showers in SLO and northern Santa Barbara County in the morning.
The real rain will start around 4 pm. We will see a 4 to 8 hour period of rain.
The jet stream is aimed at SLO and Santa Barbara counties; this means they will have the highest rain total.
LA and the fire areas, now look to see a little less.
The totals have backed off slightly. Now calling for 1/2 to 3/4 coastal and 1 to 1 1/2 in the mountains. LA around 1/3 to 2/3 of an inch.
Rain will all be over by Thanksgiving morning. It will be cool and damp, however dry Thursday and most of Friday.
Slight chance of rain in SLO and northern Santa Barbara county Friday night. This will not produce much rain at all.
Beyond that we are looking dry through Tuesday of next week.
This appears to be a 1 and done rain event, for this week at least.
It will give us all a chance to enjoy family and the holiday without rain.
Especially for myself. I will not need to be on roofs Thursday patching because the rain will be over.
If you are heading to Mammoth mountain for Thanksgiving, I have good news for you.
You will have a white Thanksgiving.
You will want to leave early Wednesday or you will be driving in snow and rain. There will be 9 to 15 inches of snow, mainly Wednesday afternoon and night.
Thursday will be nice then, very windy Friday and a little more snow.
Your best days to get outdoors will be Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday.
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-119.0309197485682&lat=37.628989532560425#.W_QM1oqIafA
Ok that’s it for today, 1 more update Wednesday morning.
Rain is in the Forecast
Good Monday morning,
There it is, low pressure spinning off the coast.
This is going to provide us plenty of high and mid-level clouds today, but because of the off shore winds, no rain will occur until Wednesday.
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
Today and Tuesday will remain dry, with only a few sprinkles to the south.
Then Tuesday night the front starts to move closer.
Wednesday morning should bring rain to SLO county and northern SB county.
Rain in Santa Barbara should start up around the early afternoon. Rain will fall for a 4 to 8 hour period and heavy at times.
It now looks like the jet is going to push over SLO to Ventura. This means these areas, including Santa Barbara, will see the most rain.
They are still calling for 1/2 to 1 inch. Another thing that will help rain totals is the counter clockwise rotation.
This will enhance the rainfall in the south facing or Santa Barbara Mountains. 2 inches is possible.
Rain ends Wednesday night and Thanksgiving Day will be cool, but dry.
Your Thanksgiving Day will be dry, but you may need a sweatshirt when FaceTiming family from the beach.
Friday a system drops from the north. This will affect Nor Cal and drop south.
Rain is likely in SLO and northern Santa Barbara County.
We will need to see if it gets this far south. If it does, it will be on the lighter side.
Saturday and Sunday will be dry. Sunday night into next week is too far out to call.
So no comment, because there is no agreement in the computer models.
We will wait and see what happens.
Ok, are you ready for rain????
It is coming …..
Good Thursday Morning
The work week is coming towards an end, and thanksgiving is a week away.
Of course we all want to know about thanksgiving weather. Well, the models are getting closer to understanding what we should expect.
Let’s start with what we know, and what is coming up in the short term.
Weak off shore flow continues on and off the rest of the week.
The winds have calmed in the fire areas, so maybe we can get a good handle on them.
The atmosphere will even start to moisten some with coastal fog starting Friday into the weekend.
This will keep temps in the upper 60s and low 70s. Just perfect in my book.
It should be a nice weekend. Maybe some damp mornings again.
Now the next weeks forecast.
Monday looks to be dry with light off shore winds.
Tuesday looks to bring back fog and low clouds, but again dry.
Wednesday more of the same, but we will transition with a system approaching.
Thursday on is still a big ? for right now….
Thanksgiving day, one model is calling for light rain and the other is dry.
Friday and into the weekend is when we should get some rain.
How much and which day is still not clear.
Ok you’re up to date… make your outdoor plans.
Good Wednesday Morning
Dry and warm weather continues through the week, but the good news is the winds in the fire areas are going to calm some.
It looks like the winds will begin to calm this afternoon. They will not stop, but will at least be more manageable.
Friday, we will have onshore flow and start to mop up the mess to the south.
The weekend will give us fog and some clouds in the morning Friday through Sunday.
Next week, we were talking about rain and it is still possible, but the models are struggling with this. The national weather service used 3 different computer models.
When they start to agree, the rain becomes more likely. The problem is they keep flip flopping on the rain.
One says rain Tuesday, and then flops to dry. The other says dry, then flops to rain.
It is likely we will get some rain next week sometime. We will just need to see how it develops in the next 3 days.
At this point, the best possibilities are Wednesday to Friday.
Not a 3 day event, but that’s when it is possible.
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
All I can say at this point is stay tuned!!!
Tuesday Weather Update
Good Tuesday morning,
High clouds will start the day.
The real story is the wind to the south in the fire area. It will take one more day before they begin to back off.
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
Winds will blow 30 to 40 miles an hour in the valleys and 50 to 60 in the mountains, pretty much a repeat of Monday.
Off shore will continue into Thursday, but winds will back down starting Wednesday. This is good news for those in the fire area, one more day of Hell.
Friday, look for a big cool down. Onshore flow returns for the weekend.
Next week, the chance for rain begins. Models do not agree when this will occur, but as the week progresses we will get a better Handel on this.
It’s cold out there this morning. You can feel the change of seasons in the morning now.
Must start with a jacket or sweatshirt every morning.
Have a good day.
Happy Veteran’s Day
Yes, it is a holiday for some, but not for most… Action and firefighters will be working today.
It is going to be a busy start to the week in the fire areas.
The winds have backed off a little, but will pick up and get stronger today through at least Tuesday.
Winds will gust in the mountains to 60 miles an hour. Along the foothills and coastal, winds will be in the 40s.
It is going to be a difficult time over the next 48 hours for those fighting the fires.
Wednesday and Thursday, the winds drop off and things return to normal.
Friday and into the weekend, the marine layer returns with cooler temps, fog and low clouds.
The biggest news is the chance of rain for thanksgiving week.
This has now made the forecast. It looks like the potential for 2 systems Thanksgiving week.
One to start the week, and the second to arrive right around thanksgiving.
This will dampen the holiday, but rain is welcomed, just not too much at one time in the burn areas.
It is going to be a tough rainy season for a 150 stretch of Southern California from Goleta to LA.
Where the rain is still 7 days out, we are not talking about how much, only that the models are agreeing that 2 systems can affect the area.
Stay tuned.
Take a look at the satellite, it shows all the clouds to the north and south. Look over eastern Oregon; you can see the cold air flow coming at us.
This is what is going to produce the wind.
Southern CA has nothing but wind over it.
Cold air is moving in today and the winds are going to pick up shortly and last for up to 48 hours.
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
Friday and Weekend Forecast
Good Friday morning,
Interesting weather out there in some areas.
Check out Santa Ynez, it is 37 degrees right now.
Further to the south, the wind is howling in Santa Ana wind prone areas.
It is amazing to me how 40 miles away changes to winds at 50 miles an hour, especially when it is perfectly calm in Santa Barbara.
Crazy ness……
All of this has to do with the off shore Santa Ana winds. If you are in a wind protected area, it is bitter cold.
Then going into Ventura County the winds are driving the fire in Newbury Park, pushing the fire towards the coast.
This has closed the 101 in areas. Winds will strengthen this morning, then begin to back off around noon.
Santa Barbara is right in the middle. Our ocean and mountains keep the wind out and the surface temps warmer.
I think it is called Heaven….
Saturday will be a nice day for all. Bitter cold in Santa Ynez tonight, but warming into the upper 70s Saturday.
Later Saturday, off shore winds turn on shore, for 1 day.
Then a Santa Ana wind event is back again to start the week. This time the winds appear to be weaker.
Bottom line, no rain in sight…. at least through next week… then it is Thanksgiving.
Wow!!
One last thing I have to mention. Did you see that Sears on La Cumbre is closing in February of 2019?
Incredible that a staple name like that has melted away…
Have a great weekend.
Thursday Forecast
Sad morning waking up at 4am and turning on the news.
If you have not heard, another crazy person with guns killed 13 people in Thousand Oaks.
College night at a club in Thousand Oaks, sadly lots of young people were killed.
This time it is way too close to home…..
For the weather, we have on shore flow early this morning. Fog and clouds are typical along the coast, but as advertised all week, winds are going to change to off shore by noon. Of course this is another Santa Ana wind event for Ventura and south.
Winds are really going to kick up tonight. Some mountain areas will see 70 mile an hour winds.
Coastal will be tamer, but 20 to 40 miles an hour is likely. These winds will be strongest Thursday night into Friday afternoon.
They will drop off Friday evening. Of course this will be a fire hazard for Ventura Mountain.
Where typical Santa Ana winds heat us up and raise the temps, this one will come with very cold air. It will not get as hot as normal. Expect highs in the low 80s Friday and Saturday.
Sunday, a weak onshore returns, then Monday through Wednesday another Santa Ana event.
As I have mentioned in the past. Santa Ana events will take air and blow it to the coast.
In doing so, the air compresses in the mountains as it blows down the canyons.
Typically this causes temps to climb to the century mark. Since the air is so cold with this one, we will not feel the heat.
Also, in wind protected areas, it will be bitter cold. Some areas overnight, Thursday and Friday, will get into the 20s.
That’s the first really cold snap of the season.
As far as rain goes… none through at least mid-November.
Here is a look from the sky.
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
Have a good day.
Tuesday Update
Good Tuesday morning,
Last night leaving the office, it was so sad because it was dark.
I hate standard time. Vote yes, on 7 if you feel the same way.
This will be a quick one…
Today through Wednesday, onshore flow. Fog and low clouds until the afternoon, then clearing with highs in the 70s.
Thursday, off shore arrives. A warm up is in the forecast.
Friday, it is looking like a stronger Santa Ana wind event for Ventura and south. No wind in SB
Friday through the weekend. Sunny, hot and summer like…
No rain in sight yet. Next week is even looking dry now.
11/05/2018 Weeks Weather
Good Monday morning,
We all should be refreshed, and on time for work today. Since everyone had an extra hour to get ready for the new work week.
Weather this week is not really exciting. The onshore flow has returned, bringing back cooler temps for the short term…
Monday through Wednesday, night and morning low clouds and cool days. This is the perfect weather for all of us that work outdoors.
Thursday into the weekend, it all flips back to warm, Santa Ana winds. Yes it will be another Santa Ana wind event.
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-119.69082646630704&lat=34.42866088086127#.W-BL75NKhPY
The big difference this week is darkness sets in at 5:30 PM. If you want day light savings time year round, vote yes on Prop 7.
That’s all I will say about politics, except vote Tuesday.
Have a great week.
Weekend Forecast
Good Friday morning,
Last night was quite warm with the south winds, this morning is the same. I went to the Garage at 3am and I was surprised to see how warm it was outside.
This satellite pictures spells it out. You can see the rotation bringing the off shore flow.
This means sunny and warm temps.
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
It is going to be a great summer like weekend.
Today, expect quite a warm day. Highs will be in the upper 80s. I would not be surprised to find some 90s out there.
Saturday, still quite warm with just a few degrees cooler. Still in the 80s.
Sunday, more of the same. The off shore will switch back to onshore Sunday afternoon with a little cooling.
Monday and Tuesday, nothing exciting. Morning low clouds and then sun. Highs in the 70s.
Wednesday to Friday, switch back to off shore winds. Days will warm again.
No rain in the forecast at all at this point. We will need to see what the week of the 13th brings.
In the meantime, Sunday morning at 3 am it is clocks back. Darkness will come earlier.
Clocks back is the last thing Jack needs, considering my day starts at 3am or 4am.
I will be starting my day before the Bars close!!!!!
One last thing to brighten your day, about the possible El Nino this winter. Take a look at the southern Pacific. There are still 3 more tropical depressions out there.
2 are likely to get to hurricane status in November !!!. That tells you how warm the water is… This can make California a very wet state starting in January.
HTTPS://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=5
Have a great day and weekend.
Got to love California weather.