Good Thursday morning,
Welcome to Thursday, and our forecast continues to evolve.
As discussed, this low-pressure system has been moving more slowly over the past two days and appears to be holding off until later in the afternoon.
The interesting part of the forecast is we are now calling for rain into early next week and likely through Tuesday.
Just look at the graphic showing rain through Tuesday for next week.
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-119.685&lat=34.434
It looks to be cooler today, but dry most of the daylight hours. Rain chances start up around 5:00 PM and continue through Friday. There is a low-pressure system currently to the north that will drop into our area later today.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G17§or=wus&band=09&length=12
It looks like heavier rain tonight and through Friday, into Saturday. This system comes with its challenges because of its counterclockwise rotation. This is also tapping into a subtropical moisture field, which will enhance our rain on south faces. This means SB, Montecito and all the hills.
Rain totals haven’t changed much — expect rain tonight through Friday, with 1 to 2 inches along the coast and 2 to 4 inches in the hills.
The big question mark is what happens on Saturday as the low-pressure system cuts off and is going to retrograde back to the North. This will give rain on Saturday, maybe dry on Sunday. Then there will be more rain on Monday and Tuesday. Bottom line: this is a cut-off low with a mind of its own, so we’ll need to monitor it closely day by day.
All in all, we can expect 3 to 6 inches of rain in the local mountains and 2 to 4 inches along the coast. Periods of heavy rain are likely, with rainfall rates of ¼ to ½ inch per hour along the coast and up to ¾ inch per hour in the hills. South winds of 10 to 20 mph are expected, along with the possibility of a few thunderstorms.
We will likely see some flooding in areas. Get ready for the rain, it will be arriving later in the day.
Jack Martin