Good Wednesday morning,
Rain is coming our way and is expected from Thursday through Saturday, with a chance it could continue into Sunday. Reading the forecast discussions, there are many uncertainties in the forecast, as model runs are not in good agreement.
So, what do we know?
We do know it will rain Thursday into Friday. This is a cut off low that might stall over the coastal waters and hang over us into Saturday.
As always, cutoff lows are not very predictable. If this doesn’t stall over the coastal waters then we will see rain through Saturday, with a possible break into Friday morning.
It looks like the rain may start a bit later than originally forecast, with Santa Barbara likely not seeing rainfall until mid-morning on Thursday.
As mentioned, short-term models are not in agreement on the forecast. This means we don’t know how long the rain will last.
All the previous rain totals are on track for 1 to 2 inches coastal and 2 to 5 inches on south-facing mountains (our hills).
Rain will be heavy at times ¼ to ½ inch per hour and ¾ to 1 inch in the mountains. Thunderstorms are possible with heavy rain.
https://zoom.earth/maps/precipitation
Today we’ll have some time to prepare for the rain, with only high clouds this morning and cooler temperatures. Highs will be in the 60s.
It looks like the rain will begin Thursday morning, and by then we should have a clearer idea of how long it will last.
It does look like winds will be part of the forecast with 10 to 15 miles an hour on Thursday and Thursday night, 15 to 20 miles an hour from the south.
Shut off your sprinklers and put down those outdoor umbrellas!
Jack Martin