Good Wednesday morning,
It’s the last day of 2025. Television shows are busy recapping the year—sorry, not here. There’s barely time to sleep these days. Instead, let’s talk about the weather and the rain shaping the transition from late 2025 into 2026.
Who would have thought that going into a La Niña year, which started on September 1st, 2025, and ended on August 30th, 2026, we would be talking about 100% of rainfall for the year in just 3 months? Yes, that is where we are sitting in most of Santa Barbara County, and there are lots more to come today through Tuesday of next week.
Let’s talk about what’s to come.
Today, we have a subtropical system drifting up out of Mexico, and it feels tropical. If you’re up at 3 am with me, you would know what I am talking about.
You can see it drifting up https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=35,-126.6,4z
As we all felt yesterday with the warmer temperatures, subtropical feel, sprinkles, and showers, it was Hawaii-like. The rain was interesting but did not amount to much. That all changes today. Rain this morning will start light and pick up as the day gets into late afternoon, then we will see heavy rain from midnight to Noon on New Year’s Day.
Here is what it looks like from now through New Year’s Day
https://zoom.earth/maps/precipitation/#view=35,-126.6,4z/model=icon
Rain rates will start off light, at a quarter inch per hour or less. By late afternoon, rates increase to around a half inch per hour. Overnight and into early New Year’s Day, periods of heavy rain are expected. The heaviest rainfall will impact Los Angeles and south-facing mountain slopes. Pasadena is likely to see the worst of it, making for a very wet parade and a likely soggy Rose Bowl game.
Rain might lighten up in the afternoon for the game, but it will still rain. Here in SB, north of the area, we should see drier weather in the afternoon into Friday morning. Showers will continue for all, but the next system does not arrive until Saturday. Rain will move from north to south with the second system. Additional rain is expected Sunday, drier conditions Monday, and more rain returning Tuesday.
The first system is a southerly system with the central coast seeing less rain, and LA and south-facing mountains (us) more rain. System #2 Saturday will be the opposite. Higher rain totals North, and LA will experience less rain. Bottom line: rain for the next 5 days on and off with a few breaks. This will all add up to inches of rain.
Through Saturday, 1 to 3 inches along the coast, 3 to 5 inches in the Mountains. On top of that, the Christmas rains have saturated the ground, so a flood watch is in place from noon today through Thursday at noon. Sunday, we start the rain count again …. Just nuts ….
Enjoy the New Year’s Eve Day and night. Tonight, if you’re ringing in the New Year in California, plan on getting wet if you’re heading outside.
Happy New Year’s 2026!
Jack Martin