5/31/19
Good Friday morning,
It is the time of the year where day light starts so early. Amazing how early day light arrives this time of year.
The last day of a very interesting month of May.
Today there is a low pressure system that is rolling down the interior from Northern California. This will move over SLO, Santa Barbara, and Ventura county later today.
With the warming of the day time hours, this can trigger thunder showers over the inland mountains. Last night the skies were quite active in northern Ca areas. This will drop into our area today. Thunder showers really are looking to stay to the East of our area.
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/weus/h5-loop-wv.html
Looking at the local forecast it does not even show any percentage chance of rain over our area.
For inland mountains, Thunderstorms are likely 60%, But this is east of us.
We will likely see some white puffy clouds over our mountains.
This system is moving slowly. It will affect the mountain areas through Sunday from SLO to LA county.
Where it does rain, it will likely be a downpour, with flooding.
The cells will move slowly and focus on that location for some time.
Areas west of the mountains will see fog with later clearing. Highs will be in the low to mid 70s through the weekend.
Enjoy the weekend, June arrives Saturday.
5/30/19
Good Thursday morning,
This week has got me all screwed up on the day. I have to pause and think about what day it is.
The month is coming to the end and May looks to provide some fireworks in the mountains to close out the month.
Fireworks in the form of thunder and lightning is possible.
“check out this movie of a thunder storm forming“
Thanks Mike!
This is all due to cold air and a low pressure system dropping down out of the north.
The low pressure system will drop south and remain in the area through Sunday.
For us it really should not affect the coastal areas. This will be at peaks or mountains where the cold air sits.
With heat of the day rising, the pretty white clouds can form and if they get enough moisture, it all drops to the ground.
Bottom line, the best chances are 30% and this is not in our area. It is all to the east.
Here is the low pressure dropping south. You can see it on satellite.
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/weus/h5-loop-wv.html
For our areas, fog in the morning. Warming in the afternoons is what to expect.
High in the mid 70s in the afternoons and 50s at night.
June arrives on Saturday. We will see what that brings us. In the meantime, enjoy the end of May.
5/29/19
Good Wednesday morning,
Not a lot of excitement with the weather.
Low pressure and colder air to the east will give us a slight chance for mountain showers in the afternoon.
We will also see a nice warm up in the afternoon due to sunshine.
Basically night and some morning low clouds are likely through Friday morning.
Friday afternoon, another low pressure system drops from the north and will give a better chance for some mountain showers.
We will have to see how the day time heating and the low pressure system comes into play Thursday.
The weekend keeps low clouds along the coast and nice but cooler temps throughout the area.
Where chances for thunderstorms are there, they are less likely than Friday .
Here is the view from the pacific, with not as much Action out there.
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?prod=XXXAFDLOX&wfo=LOX
5/28/19
Tuesday morning,
It is starting out quite chilly out there. Cold air with clear skies is making our morning chilly.
If you look at the satellite you can see a low pressure system to the east spinning around.
This will do nothing more than give us some pretty puffy clouds over our mountains this afternoon.
The sun heating the air will allow clouds to build. Slight chance of thunder storms, mainly to the East of us.
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/weus/h5-loop-wv.html
Cold air sticks around Wednesday, but some warming each day. Marine layer likely returns in the mornings and burns off by mid day.
Thursday, another weak low arrives. This will do nothing more than create a marine layer.
Friday and through the weekend all looks to be the same. June gloom arrives along the coast, but Santa Ynez should be clear and nice through Sunday.
As the month comes to an end, I think the rain will finally do the same.
It has been an incredible season for rainfall and snow. Some reports are planning on staying open until August.
Ok it’s back to work and I hope everyone had a great holiday.
I was at the Boathouse with lots of others, enjoying a great Monday lunch.
Have a great short week.
The weekend will come fast. Especially for flex schedules. Friday is an off day for City of SB and Action Roofing.
Holiday Weekend Forecast
Uggs, and you might want to pack those Uggs boots if you plan on a lake trip this weekend.
The good news is, if people are reading the forecast, the lake will see 1/2 the normal turn out.
This weekend is usually celebrated as the start of summer. This year will not be that at all. Highs at the lake will be in the 60s.
Here is your lake weather:
Since we are talking about lakes, Cachuma is at 80.8%. Naciemiento is at 81% with chilly air and water.
From the sky today:
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-119.69673156738281&lat=34.42390334071669#.XOffnoplCfC
For today, this will be the best of the weekend.
For us, we are starting out with Blue skies. Other areas are starting out with low clouds, but it will clear to sun this afternoon.
Saturday will be fair, but the next low pressure system moves in from the north in the afternoon.
We will begin to see the puffy white clouds build over the mountains.
There is a chance for thunder showers in the afternoon Saturday in Ventura and Santa Barbara county.
Saturday night, the low rolls over head. Rain for all areas will begin over night.
Rain will continue into Sunday. Rain will be on the lighters side, with totals of around 1/4 of an inch is predicted.
“That being said, it seems we have doubled the predicted totals in the last 2 systems all I can tell you is rain is a sure thing on Sunday.“
Rain ends late Sunday morning and we begin to dry out again.
Monday and Tuesday look for warmer and nice weather.
Wednesday starts out like Tuesday, then another low drops over us late in the day Wednesday.
Wednesday night into Thursday, another chance of showers.
This is still evolving, so we have no real details other then it appears to be weaker with less rain.
The best news I can give you is next week is the last week in May, which has proven to be the wettest May I have ever seen in SB area.
We will hope that June brings us more normal temps and Summer begins.
Until then, enjoy the wintery forecast.
Look at this, it is amazing to see these snow totals for the season at mammoth.
https://www.mammothmountain.com/winter/mountain-information/mountain-information
Great snow to the north with fresh powder in MAY !!!!
Have a great weekend!
5/27/19
Good morning,
Holiday Monday for most. It should be a nice sunny day, but temps will remain 10 to 15 degrees below normal.
The good new is temps will climb each day through Wednesday.
Better yet, no rain this week….. I think this is the first week in over a month that I can make that statement.
Here are the rain totals for the last 5 days. Not a lot of rain fell with the past 2 systems.
San Marcos Pass was one of the winners.
The weekend actually was not as bad as once advertised, but the temps were not warm enough for bathing suits.
Today, lots of sunshine. Cool day still. You will want to pack a sweat shirt for beach or park trips.
Pearl and I will be heading to one of the 2.
The rest of the week will be nice, and cooler spring like weather.
Wednesday into Thursday a weak front moves in, and does nothing more then deepen the marine layer.
Friday into the weekend looks to be sunny and pleasant. Temps will remain cool with highs in the 70s.
Enjoy your extra day off, we will be back at it on Tuesday with 🌞 sunshine over head.
Go Gauchos!
Brian and I need to break out the Under Cover Special Bureau “inside Joke” UCSB
5/26/19 Weather Change
Good Sunday morning,
Saturday actually turned out to be nice after the low clouds burned off. The thunder showers stayed to the south over Ventura.
We saw only some of the puffy clouds over the mountains.
A little twist in our forecast today. As you can see out there, no rain yet. Rain is falling in the central coast and will be here in the next hour.
The low stayed a little more to the west then predicted yesterday. It will be over King City this afternoon and will throw showers at us soon.
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/weus/h5-loop-wv.html
It looks like we will see the chance of showers through the afternoon today. Rainfall will be ¼ inch or less, with a showery pattern.
This is a cold system. Today will be the coldest in the next 10 days. 10 to 20 degrees below normal.
Later in the afternoon we have a chance of thunder storms. After the front passes, the wind will increase to 25 miles an hour.
Monday looks like we will turn to dry. It looks like we will be rain free throughout the week. Temps will climb 5 degrees both Monday and Tuesday.
This will still be below normal, because the air is so cold today.
Check this out. Amazing snow in mammoth this year, record breaking May. Most snow ever:
Saturday will be 75 degrees for Katie’s and Erick wedding “just perfect weather, with lots of sunshine “
Lastly, how about those Gaucho’s.
The baseball team won the big west for the first time since 1986. They will go onto the NCAA tournament in Vegas.
Congrats to all the Gaucho’s and supporters.
Great season and it is just beginning. If you did not know, they are ranked #4 in the nation.
Enjoy your Sunday.
June arrives next Saturday, hopefully summer comes with June.
5/25/19 Memorial Weekend Forecast
Good Saturday morning,
Early rise for the day, perfect to get an early forecast out to all.
Not a lot of changes in the forecast, but let’s update to make it easy….
A cool damp weekend on tap for Southern California. This is more like a Seattle, Wa forecast.
Actually Seattle will be nicer Sunday and Monday.
If you want the warmth and heat. Just jump on a plane and go to Florida. They are going to be in the 90s.
Today, cloudy is the best way to describe the weather. Clearing will be limited.
This afternoon, instability rolls in. With any sunshine that breaks out, we can develop thunder showers over the mountains.
This can cause brief downpours and even some hail.
Tonight the low pressure system over Nor Cal drops into Bakersfield and dampens the air over Southern California.
We are expecting rain over night and into the first half of the day.
We are not expecting much rain at all. 1/4 of an inch at best.
Sunday afternoon, still a chance for a few showers, but the sun will peak out.
Monday and Tuesday, look to be nice days. Even Wednesday. Highs will climb into the 70s and close to 80 in some locations.
Wednesday night into Thursday looks like low pressure drops south once again.
This will bring on fog and cooler, but looks like rain chances stay to the north.
Friday and into the weekend look to be nice, but cooler. Highs might be in the low 70s with mostly sunny skies.
Ok that’s your holiday forecast. To me, the best holiday weekends are watching others drive in traffic. I will remain home.
For those holiday travelers, Friday and Monday will be the best driving days. Weather will not be a factor.
The in between days however, not the best….
Have a great weekend.
5/23/19 Feels Like 2/23/19
Good cool February morning,
Ok well, it is really May, but you would never know it from the weather.
Our pattern of cool – cold weather, wind and rain will continues into early next week.
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
We have another series of systems rolling though, bringing us a mix of everything.
Today, it will be relatively nice, but another weak system is rolling into Northern California.
This will begin to affect us tonight with a chance of showers Thursday night into Friday morning.
Friday afternoon through most of Saturday will be fair, but way colder then we would expect this time of year.
I suggest going to the snow instead of the lake for swimming, boating, skiing etc.
Saturday night into Sunday, another weather system. This is stronger and colder. Snow level will drop to 5000 to 6000 feet.
All resorts will see snow in May. This is dropping out of the gulf of Alaska again.
We will likely see some rain showers during Saturday night through Sunday.
Monday, the wind is back as we try to leave the funky weather pattern. High pressure builds in Tuesday and Wednesday.
Models are also beginning to trend towards a drier pattern beginning later next week. We will see what happens as it gets closer.
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-119.69673156738281&lat=34.42390334071669#.XOabEIplCfB
I hope everyone enjoys the long holiday weekend. It will be very different from most we have seen in the past…..
”Is this a result of global warming? I don’t think anyone will be talking about that on the news this weekend “😁
We, of course, will make the best of it.
Enjoy the lake if you are heading that way, just bring your Ski parka 😂
5/22/19
My goodness,
The weather just will not cut us a break. The wind has been crazy for the past 2 days, especially last night.
Today another system rolls down the coast. This will arrive in SB late this morning, bringing us another decent chance of rain.
This system is north to south again. Rain is out there to the north right now, very showery but there…
Thursday and Friday will be better days, but the chance of showers over the mountains continue.
It will be cold out there also. You would think we were talking about a February weather pattern not May.
Saturday another low drops our way, and gives us yet another chance of rain. It looks like our memorial day holiday will be cool and unsettled.
Lake goers will need to bring a sweatshirt and rain gear …. Not going to be a lake weekend that you are used to for this holiday.
Enjoy our crazy weather, at least the winds are calmer.
Jack Martin
5/21/19 Weather
Our interesting weather pattern in May continues. Another low pressure system is dropping out of Oregon today.
This will bring wind and a chance for some showers over night.
This system is dropping north to south, with that, a chance of rain is possible in the northern SB and SLO.
Santa Barbara should be spared, because of the mountains.
That being said, there is still a 20% chance for rain tonight. Everyone will feel the wind through Wednesday morning.
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
Wednesday and Thursday should be calm and dry.
Moving beyond, another system on Friday appears to be on the weaker side.
Saturday into the holiday, more unsettled weather.
They are talking about another storm system Saturday night into Monday.
This one does seem to have a rain impact on us Sunday into Monday. We will need to watch and see how it tracks.
The funky weather does continue through the week and into early next week.
Stay tuned.
5/20/19
Good Monday morning,
Sunday’s rain was pretty incredible with Montecito picking up 1.58 inches of rain.
Thanks to afternoon showers. Overall it has been an incredible May, for rain.
In just the past week, some locations have picked up 2.5 inches and the creeks are flowing again in Montecito.
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
Today we start out with wind and the wind will continue into tonight.
Tuesday has finally come into a forecast. It does look like the low pressure system will set up over Nevada – California, near Vegas and spin for 2 days. It will then move northeast and could cause some rain inland. It now, however, looks like the coastal areas.
Our forecast area will stay dry, with partly to mostly cloudy skies at times, with only a slight chance of rain.
Looking into the weekend, another low moves south from the northwest. This will bring a chance of rain Sunday.
Temps all week will be well below normal.
Rainy Sunday Morning 5/19/19
Absolutely amazing. Close to another inch of rain in the area.
That’s over 2 inches for the week in some locations, and it is May……
Amazing….
Rain will fade away this morning and turn to partly cloudy. Sure there will be a chance for showers, but not likely after 12 noon.
To the south in LA, showers are more likely.
“Jimmy put on your sportscoat and have a good open house…. “
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
The low is currently moving South and East now. This will allow the sun to come out and begin the drying process.
This afternoon and tonight, the northwest winds kick in. This will give 10 to 25 mile an hour winds.
Monday, a nice day overall
Tuesday starts out fine ,then clouds begin to roll in bringing a chance of rain.
The models are slowly beginning to figure out our weather for Tuesday on through the week, but it is still evolving.
For now, it appears a low will drop over land and bring us a chance of rain.
This low spins over Bakersfield and sits there. Later in the week the same low will move back to the west and give us another chance of rain.
I know, that’s crazy, but this did happened a few weeks ago. I will wait and see wait they are saying on Monday.
For the record, May of 1977 we had 3.5 inches of rain.
While we are getting close to that, the record is not broken yet.
“ Adam thanks for the facts. “
Lake Cachuma is at 80.7 up 1/100.
Enjoy your damp Sunday
April 2019 El Nino Update
Ok, so here is the latest El Niño forecast. You can read all the details and learn lots of stuff, or you can just look at this map.
You see all the blue colors in the Pacific.
That tells you the water temps are higher then normal and the likelihood for another El Niño is good for 2020.
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/april-2019-el-niño-update-you-are-here
It is looking like another weak el nino year. This will actually make it 3 years in a row. Than is quite unusual.
Two years in a row are common, but not 3.
https://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/environment/next-two-years-may-see-long-and-strong-el-ni-o-62527
Look we get to start talking about hurricane season now, of course with warmer waters it should be another active season.
The first possible hurricane is brewing up just below Mexico:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=5
Lots to report for sometime to come….
Saturday 5/18/19
Did you see the full moon out there? Pretty bright in the west this morning, if you were up with me.
Today will start out nice with clouds moving in this afternoon as the low pressure system moves closer.
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-119.66102600097652&lat=34.44542371620851#.XN_6gIplCfC
Tonight, the rain is back. It will start up in SLO around sunset and move towards us.
Expect rain to begin around 11pm in Santa Barbara. This is a fairly quick moving system and the rain will pretty much be over by sunrise.
How much?
1/4 to 1/2 inch coastal and double in the mountains. Not as much as Wednesday night – Thursday’s storm, but still quite a bit for this time of year.
I believe it will be a record rainfall for May….
Sunday afternoon, of course the northwest winds return. It will give us another windy evening…
Monday, a weak ridge takes over. It will be dry and a nice day.
Tuesday I think starts out nice, then rain chances increase at the end of the day.
Models are still struggling with the details, but for the first time they seem to start to agree.
This will be a weaker system with not a lot of moisture, but will create showers Tuesday later into possible Wednesday.
Ok, that’s your update. Expect rain tonight and the El Niño – Hurricane season update will come out in the next hour….
That will be a block buster ….. 😄
Enjoy your Saturday.
Windy 5/15/19
Good Friday morning,
Pretty impressive rain totals, especially in the Santa Barbara and Santa Ynez Area.
These areas saw close to 1 inch coastal to 1 .5 in the mountains.
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/lox/scripts/getlocal.php?prod=LAXRRMSBA
Today we will continue with northwest winds today and again tonight.
There is lots of Action flowing across the skies, with clouds moving though the jet stream quickly.
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
Saturday, a quick ridge builds in, making for a nice day. Saturday night, the next low approaches the central coast.
This low is further north then yesterday’s, so there will not be as much rain, however it is likely.
Overnight Saturday and into Sunday morning, the rain arrives.
This will pretty much be a repeat of Wednesday night, but rain totals will be much lighter. 1/10 to 1/4 of an inch is likely.
Sunday late morning, the sun and wind returns.
Monday will be a nice sunny day with off shore winds and high pressure building in.
The forecast stops there.
We really only have a 4 day window on what will happen Tuesday and on.
Models vary completely with their forecast. We will see rain or sunshine….we will figure this out by Sunday.
In the meantime, enjoy a few nice days of sun, but windy still.
Saturday, we will have fun with the possibility of 2020 El Nino and the hurricane season arriving.
Stay tuned.
Have a great weekend.
5/16/19 Impressive Rain Totals
Good Thursday morning,
While we were sleeping, we had a good steady rain. For Santa Barbara county it was very impressive. The low pressure system is currently over point conception and beginning to move East. This will allow steady rain to back off and turn to showers.
Chance of showers will persist into the afternoon, then the rain turns to wind.
Northwest winds through the afternoon into tonight’s. 20 to 30 miles an hour.
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
Friday, a weak ridge builds in and temps rebound slightly. Saturday will start out the same.
Then late Saturday the next system rolls in. This is now tracking a little further south, so rain total might be a little higher than previously thought.
1/4 plus could fall overnight Saturday into Sunday morning. This timing will really be a repeat of this storm.
Most of the rain falling overnight and tapering at day light.
Monday and Tuesday remain dry.
Wednesday and Thursday is still evolving.
The latest models are now calling for the system to stay further north, with a chance of rain in SLO and northern SB county.
Everyone SB and south should remain dry. Take this part of the forecast with no merit.
We will see how it all plays out as the week turns into Monday.
In the mean time, the bulk of the rain will end with showers, then wind.
More rain Saturday night into Sunday.
Dry weather between. We might even see a little of the forgotten sunshine. ☀️
Enjoy the day.
Wow take a look at these . 1.3 for the pass . .89 in Santa Barbara
https://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/images/countyPrecipMaps/santabarbara_24HRprecip.png
5/15/19 Rain Forecast
Good Wednesday morning,
Another cloudy day for all. Today will be dry for the most part with some morning dampness.
Tonight the Action begins. Rain will start from north to south.
SLO will see rain begin around 9 pm and move south. SB should see the rain about midnight. LA by dawn.
This is a late season storm that will give us more than spotty rain totals.
Rain along coastal areas will total around 1/2 inch and mountains can see 1 to 2 inches.
“ that’s pretty crazy for this time of year”
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
Rain will taper to showers Thursday by noon.
Friday and half of Saturday, a weak ridge builds in. This will keep us dry, but winds pick up on Friday morning.
Looks like another weaker system rolls in late Saturday and will give us a little more rain.
This is a more northernly system, so total will be less and lighter.
Monday should be dry, then Tuesday and Wednesday is really not clear at all.
Two long range models call for rain on different days.
No real consistency at this point, so we will call for a chance until they get more in line.
All in all, this season has been a real success for rain and lake cachuma, but a pain for a roofing contractor…
Enjoy what Mother Nature hands us, you’re ready now.
Good Tuesday Morning 5/14/19
Good damp morning,
Fog at my house is pretty thick. Quite damp outside with moisture in the driveway.
This trend will continue today and Wednesday. Clearing will occur slowly as the day turns to the afternoon.
Some beach areas will likely see no sun again.
Wednesday afternoon, low pressure arrives.
This will create a chance for rain in the central coast Wednesday night and spread south over night.
Thursday will bring rain for everyone.
This is more like a February storm, with colder air support and will bring rain instead of showers.
Rain will be 1/4 to 1/2 coastal and 1 inch possible in the mountains. Snow at some resort levels ….
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
Friday we clear up for a few days, but Saturday late afternoon, another low drops over us.
We are looking for another chance of rain over night and into Sunday.
This will be a weaker system with minimal rain at this point. More of a north impact.
Monday is dry, but believe it or not…the forecast models are talking about another system on Tuesday of next week….
Yes that’s nuts….
Ok looks like we are turning back Mother time to February.
If this was February, it would be Valentine’s day……
5/13/19 Monday Morning
Good Monday morning,
What a great Sunday. Mother’s Day outside was fantastic. We traveled to Santa Ynez and enjoyed a great afternoon at Sunstone winery.
What a great spot with kids running everywhere, sunshine and of course wine for moms. “I was the DD so water was my main course.”
Today and Tuesday should be just like Sunday. Temps will creep into the low to mid 70s coastal after fog burns off.
Santa Ynez will have another great few days with highs around 80.
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
Wednesday, it all changes….. Low pressure rolls in and will deepen the marine layer. Expect more fog and low clouds with late clearing.
Wednesday night the rain chances begin. It is amazing that we keep talking about rain for this time of year in Southern California.
Rain will begin over night into Thursday. We are talking about a good rain also 1/2 to 1 inch.
That’s incredible for this time of year. Depending on which model you believe, rain could end Thursday or continue with showers through Thursday.
Friday and Saturday should be nice days, but again, another rain maker comes in Saturday night and Sunday.
Details are not clear at his point, but more rain is likely.
That’s 2 storm systems this week. Amazing!!!
Enjoy a few nice days, then chances bring rain back.
I guess we have nothing to complain about looking at the weather in Alabama and those parts. They have a big mess on there hands.
Enjoy your day, and a special shout out to Birthday Dan 👍 ( no last names. Lots of you will likely know who this is )
5/12/19 Mother’s Day Forecast
Happy Mother’s Day.
It will be a nice day after the fog and low clouds burn off.
Today we should see some low 70s coastal and upper 70s in Santa Ynez.
Overall great day with high pressure building in through Tuesday.
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
It has been interesting to follow our weather this month. It is quite unusual to see as much rain chance as we have had.
Yesterday even saw thunder showers just about everywhere for a short time. Today any build up should stay over LA mountains.
Also, in the long term forecast, models are starting to agree that more rain is possible Wednesday to Friday.
The exact timing is not clear, as the long range models do not agree with the start.
Both now are calling for rain. It also might be a good late season storm. One model is talking about 1 inch of rain.
We will see where the days take up on this system.
In the meantime, enjoy a nice Mother’s Day and a nice start to the work week….
Happy Mother’s Day to all the moms out there.
5/13/19 Happy Saturday
Yesterday was an interesting day, with the low spinning all the rain around SB with really none, or very little here.
Actually, some mountain areas did get over an inch, Santa Ynez also saw a heavy shower but it is all over now.
Sunshine is back. It has been awhile since we have seen the sun.
The good news is the cut-off low is in northern Baja and has taken the rain chances to the south.
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/weus/h5-loop-wv.html
We should have a nice few days for the weekend now. Sunshine, but cooler temps.
We should still see highs in the low 70s, so not that cool.
Everyone should enjoy Mother’s Day outdoors. weather should be really nice.
Next week looks just fine until Wednesday night, then models are not sure on a low coming in Wednesday night.
One calls for rain, the other says it will fall apart. We will see what happens.
In the meantime, enjoy a great spring weekend.
5/10/19 Funky Weather
Good Friday morning,
Wow, this is an interesting weather day. Currently there is a low pressure system over Bakersfield and area around, causing rain inland. This area has seen ¼ to 1 inch so far.
Typically we see weather north to South, West to East, and even South to North sometimes. It is rare we see East to West, however today is one of those rare days. The San Marcos pass has even seen a little rain in the past hour .04. Sunlight will creep in around 5:30 so we will see what the skies look like.
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/weus/h5-loop-wv.html
The low pressure system is shifting from the interior to the coast and will be parked over Point Conception today this afternoon. As this occurs, we will see showers develop over the mountains, then spill into the coastal valleys this afternoon. Rain fall totals will vary today with coastal areas seeing 1/4 of an inch and mountains 1/2 of an inch.
There will also be a chance for thunder showers today through Saturday. Thunder storms are most likely Saturday over the mountains.
Rain chances continue into tonight and Saturday. Look for showers and thunder storms.
The low shifts to the south on Saturday, this will move the rain with it. Rain should taper off north to south on Saturday. LA, however, will see rain Saturday. Quite odd for May.
Rain totals for the event will be ¼ to ½ inch coastal and ½ to 2 inches in some mountain areas.
Looks like things clear out on Sunday with LA having a chance of mountain showers.
Mother’s day will be nice for the rest of us, cooler but a few degrees of warming.
Monday and Tuesday, warming some as high pressure takes over.
Wednesday, a low moves in. This will bring back the marine layer and cool us off. Does not look like any rain.
I had a request asking where Cachuma is at. Well 80.6% right now. We will see if this system today can make that go up ??
https://rain.cosbpw.net/site.php?site_id=105&site=70729dd9-97d4-430a-9271-7b6c195b49be
Take a look at our satellite and look to the southeast. You will see all the reds in the Houston, Texas area that is getting pounded with more rain. Rivers are already flooding and 4 to 5 more inches of rain is expected. This will be the news headline later today.
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
Ok lots of Action today. Never dull in Southern California.
Enjoy another late season rain…
5/9/19 More Rain Coming
By Jack Martin on May 09, 2019 at 03:00 PM
It is pretty amazing that we are talking about rain for the second time this week in May.
Besides that, this next system is going to drop a fair amount of rain, not the .15 or .25 of an inch we have seen from recent storms.
This is another cut-off low that is going to give us rain starting Thursday night into Saturday morning. This system will be very showery in nature, with rain totals varying. We can expect real rainfall however, with totals of 1/4 to 1/2 inch in coastal areas and up to a 1 inch in the foothills and mountains.
So when will this all happen ?
There is a slight chance of mountain rains this afternoon, but this will likely be ove Ventura and LA mountains.
Today will be another foggy day, with the cloud deck at 5000 feet. We will likely see no clearing today, like the past 2 days.
For our forecast area, the rain showers can begin after 11 pm tonight. However the best chance for rain is Friday afternoon, as the low moves over point conception. This will scoop up moisture and create rain over our area.
Showers possibility continues through Friday night into Saturday morning, bringing rain at times.
Saturday morning, the system begins to move south and east.
This will cause showers to stop by noon and the sun should peak out from north to south. SLO will see some sun first.
Sunday looks to be dry with some sun, but remain cooler.
Speaking of cooler temps, highs will remain 5 to 12 degrees below normal for this time of year. Today we will only see a high on 65 degrees.
Friday will be the coolest day in the next 7 days, with highs only in the low 60s with rain showers through the day.
Temps will begin to rebound slightly Saturday and Sunday, but still remain in the 60s.
Monday, a weak ridge builds in. This should give us fair weather Monday and Tuesday.
Wednesday, another low pressure system approaches. This does not look to bring rain, but the lows just keep on coming.
Ok time to break out the rain Jackets again, hopefully the last time until October.
Enjoy a late season rain.
5/7/19 Weather Update
Good Tuesday morning,
Interesting weather yesterday. Our cut-off low brought Santa Barbara and Montecito rain at 8 am for a few hours.
This was interesting, because north Goleta saw only sprinkles. Rain in Santa Barbara and Montecito was real, with moderate showers.
Even with the morning showers, we still only saw around 1/10th of an inch.
Today, rain chances are gone. We will just have clouds and fog. This trend will continue through Thursday morning.
Temps will be well below normal for this time of year. Highs will be in the 60s each day, with limited sunshine.
Thursday afternoon, the next cut-off low drifts over us. Without saying, this may do the same as Monday’s system.
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
It just depends on the track. This will come clearer on Wednesday.
At this point, looks like rain chances begin over Ventura and LA mountains Thursday.
Then on Friday, it drifts back over the ocean and brings us a chance for more spring showers.
We will just need to see how it all plays out. As mentioned previously, the movement of cut-off lows are tough on the computer models.
Saturday and Sunday will be fair, maybe a slight warm up Sunday and Monday.
In the mean time, enjoy cooler temps with low clouds and fog.
5/6/19 Rain?
Good Monday, May 6, 2019. The cut off low is still drifting around. This thing has wobbled to the north over the Central coast and is now moving back over the ocean and will move south today:
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/weus/h5-loop-wv.html
This thing has a mind of it’s own and computer models always have problems figuring out what cut off lows will do.
It does now look like it is going to get caught up into the jet stream and it will move south and east today.
Rain chances for Santa Barbara will begin this morning. Rain is over Santa Maria now and will move into Santa Ynez and to SB.
The rain will be light, with a max of 1/4 of an inch. The rain moves east tonight and any showers will end.
Tuesday and Wednesday will be nice.
Thursday through Saturday, another wobbling cut-off low will drive computer models Batty with a chance of rain again.
Sunday, we look to have a nice warm up.
Speaking of Sunday, I was driving home yesterday and ran into a brief shower. Rain was coming down hitting the street and creating steam. It was interesting to watch. (see attached)
Have a good week, look for some rain at some point today.
Good Sunday Morning
Hope everyone had a great Saturday. The sun managed to peak out later in the afternoon.
I went to the new Rosewood Miramar to check it out. It was quite chilly at the outdoor beach lounge, but packed with people.
It is quite the property, if you have not been by. You should check it out.
It is amazing that the light of day is beginning at 5:30 Am now.
We are just slightly more then 6 weeks away from summer solstice and my favorite parade in Santa Barbara.
Today we are starting out with clouds. The cut-off low that we have been talking about for the past week is landing on the central coast.
It has been drifting all week, and finally is here.
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
This will affect our weather over the next 2 days. There is a chance for showers through Monday.
This will not produce much rain, but we could see a trace to 1/4 of an inch.
The cut-off low will slowly drift south and east. We should see the rain chances start up this afternoon.
This morning is all about the low clouds, still dry out there, but it may dampen up as the morning continues.
As previously discussed, Tuesday and Wednesday will be dry and slightly warmer. We could even see a few 70s here and there.
Thursday and Friday, the next cut of low drifts towards us which is now spinning near Hawaii.
Models really have no idea where this will go, but it will eventually reach the coast.
We will see another chance of rain when this happens, Thursday or Friday.
In the mean time, enjoy the long days and Happy Cinco De Mayo.
Go have a margarita, and enjoy your Sunday.
Good Foggy Saturday Morning
A blanket of fog is going to make clearing slow today.
Sun should prevail in the valleys this afternoon in the valley, but fog in the coastal areas might stick around later in the day.
Here is the weather story for the next week. It spells 2 different cut-off lows.
The second one that arrives Thursday into Friday and is in the picture now. Look well out to the west.
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
Let’s talk about the first cut-off low first. This is around 800 miles off the coast.
It is going to drift closer as the hours move on today.
Sunday morning, the low will be closer to the coast and we should expect a deeper marine layer with drizzle possible.
Late morning the rain chances begin. This storm does not pack much moisture, but everyone should see some rain.
Ranging from a trace to 1/4 of an inch through Monday afternoon.
Starting Sunday into Monday, we will see the pretty puffy white clouds over the mountains.
These may build to produce over the mountains and coastal areas.
Tuesday the low moves east and Tuesday and Wednesday should be sunnier days with fair weather.
Thursday, the next cut-off low drifts in.
This will again give us a chance for rain Thursday and Friday.
Cut off lows are so difficult to predict the movement. We will need to see how it drifts across the ocean.
In the mean time, look for damp weather with fog and some rain Sunday and Monday.
Enjoy a cool weekend with little sunshine and cooler temps in the mid to upper 60s.
Sorry for the late forecast, I was watching “Despicable Me” with my Granddaughter, who spent the night.
Cartoons have come a long ways since I was a kid.
Have a nice weekend.
5/3/19 Weekend Weather
Good Friday morning,
Cinco de Mayo weekend. For Gringo’s. As mentioned last year, this is an American holiday. Mexico does not celebrate this day.
https://hellogiggles.com/news/cinco-de-mayo-holiday-mexico
As far as today and the weekend weather, we are looking at fog, drizzle and a chance of rain starting Sunday through Monday. This is all thanks to the cut-off low that has been spinning in the Pacific. It will be inching closer and should be over point conception on Sunday.
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
As mentioned yesterday, there is not a lot of moisture with this system. However, rain is possible Sunday and Monday.
Low pressure moves over Arizona on Tuesday, so rain chances will go away.
Forecast ….
Friday, fog and low clouds for most. Marine layer is drifting in as you sleep and I type.
Temps should remain around 70 degrees for a high today.
Saturday, another cool day with a deeper marine layer. This will cool us off some with highs in the upper 60s.
Sunday, the cut off low moves closer to us. This should be over point conception Sunday and spin. We should see some showers at times.
Mainly over the mountains, but likely to drift into the coastal areas and valleys.
Monday, more of the same. Chance of showers, then the system moves into Arizona.
Tuesday, should be dry with only a chance of rain south of the forecast area in San Diego areas and deserts.
Wednesday and Thursday, is a guess. Models can not decide if another low pressure system will give us a chance of rain.
We will not even discuss this at this point.
Enjoy a cooler weekend, and Happy Cinco De Mayo.
5/2/19 Weather Forecast
Good Thursday morning,
Another week rolling past. Today is even like Friday for businesses with a flex schedule.
Today and Friday will be nice spring days, with some fog in the morning, but clearing fairly early. We are starting out today with clear skies in SB.
Temps will actually be normal to a few degrees above normal. Expect highs in the lower 70s today and Friday.
Friday morning will be a repeat of today. Where Fog occurs, it will clear early in the day.
Friday night, the cut-off low will move a little closer and begin to affect the weather.
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
Saturday morning, we will start to see some high clouds approaching.
Sunday as the low gets closer, we could see some drizzle in the morning.
This next system is a cut-off low. Moving very slowly. It will be part of the forecast through Tuesday.
There is not a lot of moisture with this system. The satellite looks more impressive than what we will see.
Monday and Tuesday, there is a chance of showers, this will be mainly over the mountains.
As always, we will need to watch the movement of the low, however, there in no real moisture to tap into.
Enjoy your Thursday, it should be a few degrees warmer than Wednesday.
5/1/2019
Happy May Day,
Do you know the meaning of May Day the first of the month?
We have all heard happy may day, but this is what it is about.
Celebrated in many countries as a traditional springtime festival or as an international day honoring workers.
Welcome to a new month. My goodness, the days, weeks and months seem to fly by.
Last evening the northwest winds came up some and drove the low clouds and fog out of Santa Barbara. Leaving us clear skies this morning.
For others, the marine layer is 4,500 feet thick. This will bring us another cooler day. Actually it is starting out quite chilly today.
Overall, it will be a nice day with high pressure building in. SB May might even get to 70 degrees today.
Thursday, high pressure and some weak off shore winds arrive. This will warm up inland areas, but coastal, it will not be enough to keep the fog away.
Friday the high pressure moves East, but the fog and low clouds will likely continue for most, with late morning to afternoon clearing.
It is May, so this is a typical pattern for May. (As it is known as May Gray.)
There is also another cut-off low out in the pacific. This will begin to move towards us on Sunday. (Cut off lows, as discussed in the past have a mind of there own.) Like 2 year old. They do what they want to, so it is hard to predict where they will move to.
Just like earlier this week, when the low moved over us and brought us some rain.
Looks like Sunday should be a nice day, then Monday and possibly Tuesday the low will move onshore.
We will wait to make any calls on what will happen. The could be some mountain showers and rain possible. Time will tell us more.
Enjoy the new months of May’s spring weather. Cooler, but nice for the next 5 days.
Enjoy!