3/31/23
Good Friday morning,
It has been a rough March with so much more rain, but today March ends and we welcome April on Saturday.
Happy birthday to Terri and Andrea. March has been an amazing month after an amazing January. With all the rain and snow in our local mountains,
It has been the coldest winter in 50 years.
We will talk about this picture for decades to come, March the 30th 2023. The Santa Barbara Mission with the hills behind yesterday (great photo Mike)
Today we start with sunshine and warmer weather. The best news is rain is not in the extended forecast. The weekend will be full of sunshine, even if it is cooler than normal.
Just look at these crazy numbers for the season to date with the rain. Santa Barbara is 35 inches, San Marcos pass 75 inches. We have almost doubled rainfall for the entire year to date.
We are 214% of normal, The pass is 222% of normal to date. This is absolutely amazing https://files.countyofsb.org/pwd/hydrology/Rainfall%20Reports/rainfallreport.pdf
and of course, all our lakes are full.
High pressure will build in today with just some high clouds at times and highs in the mid-60s, still 10 degrees below normal https://zoom.earth/
Saturday will be a great day with highs in the upper 60s and lots of sunshine.
Sunday is a nice day, but maybe some marine layer then wind in the evening from the northwest.
next week, a few inside sliders which means some wind, and no rain. April always seems to be quite windy with sundowners from the Northwest.
This will likely be part of our forecast all month. In the meantime let’s begin to look forward to putting this rainy season behind us, and beginning to enjoy the spring and summer months.
Can you imagine that we might have to turn the heater off and switch to AC in the months to come? It has been a long time.
Have a great weekend, and don’t be fooled on Saturday, April 1st
Jack Martin
3/30/23
Good Thursday morning,
Last night the rain came down hard in spirits as the low dropped south. Results we better than expected and totals for last night and the entire storm were greater than originally predicted.
San Marcos pass added another 3 inches to the season’s totals SB 1.5 inches. last night everyone was .70 to 1.5 inches of additional rainfall https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/lox/scripts/getlocal.php?prod=LAXRRMSBA The low is dropping south then moving east this afternoon. Rain will be showery this morning then stops this afternoon. Currently just off the Santa Barbara coast.
https://zoom.earth/ . Here is the current radar https://radar.weather.gov/station/KVBX/standard
The good news is we will see dry weather after today. There should be no substantial storms through mid-April. “Yes, that’s what I said “ amen
This does not mean any rain, maybe a few weak systems, but no substantial ones. let spring arrive and start to dry us out and warm us up.
Today, is chilly, with showers and snow levels at 3500 feet. highs will be in the upper 50s to low 60s . 10 to 15 degrees below normal .
Friday zonal flow which means no rain and more sun, with a few degrees of warming
Saturday and Sunday are more of the same. warming each day, but temps will still be below normal.
Next week a weak system will bring showers to the interior but should keep us dry. cooler, but what’s new?
As I said we are then looking at an extended dry period. April brings spring flowers and warmer temps. I am hoping this holds true. it has been a long wet rainy season.
Have a great day, 2 days left in March.
Jack Martin
3/29/23
On another rainy day,
Good Wednesday morning, for more rain …. Where the rain has been on the lighter side, it is adding up quickly. In general, the forecast has been right on track, but some higher totals so far.
Basically ranging from .50 to 1.5 inches so far, but climbing. The pass has seen over 1.5 inches. Goleta 0.70, surprisingly Montecito is at 0.47 but climbing now. The big winner so far has been at Rocky Butte with 2.5 inches.
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/lox/scripts/getlocal.php?prod=LAXRRMSBA You can see on the satellite that we are just seeing the leading edge of the front which will move past us in the next few hours before we will get a break before the heart of the storm arrives https://zoom.earth/
The main low is in Nor Cal and will move south quickly this afternoon, however, we will get a break this morning into mid-afternoon. Where the first part of the storm has been steady with overall light to moderate rainfall. The second wave will be Interesting, with heavier rain likely at times due to cold air, thunderstorms, and south winds. This will arrive later in the afternoon and last into Thursday Morning. The rain will be heavy at times, the total might not be as great as the first wave. We are likely looking at another ½ of an inch, coastal, and another 1 inch in the hills, higher amounts during thunderstorms.
All in all, this storm will over-perform than originally thought. “ That’s the story of this rainy season”.
Snow levels will drop today and bring snow down to 3000 feet tonight. Expect some snow in the local mountains Thursday morning. The system clears out Thursday afternoon and we are looking for a nice weekend, warming each day.
Saturday and Sunday we will warm into the upper 60s with lots of sunshine, and the second dry weekend in a row.
Next week, when the models are still not in agreement. There will be a weak system moving through early next week, but it is looking to be dry or at least weaker.
The good news is Saturday welcomes April, and we are hoping for spring weather and a warmer, drier month.
Enjoy the rain, it is adding up…
Jack Martin
3/28/23
Good Tuesday morning,
Today should be a nice day before more rain arrives tonight. Last night it was a great sunset, it is nice to see later sunsets once again.
Today you can see the spinning low over the Pacific Northwest which will start its move south today https://zoom.earth/ The only effect this will have today is some high clouds will start to roll in. Rain will start up later tonight from 5 pm to 8 pm ahead of the front.
This will bring rain overnight with light rain only. Rain totals overnight will b around 1/2 inch for most. Wednesday morning the first wave will be through, and there will be some clearing into the afternoon before the stronger, colder part of the storm arrives. This will bring unstable air, and heavier rain at times into Thursday morning. This will bring us some south winds, with the hills in Montecito can see some enhanced rain. Nothing crazy will this system. another 1/2 inch for coastal areas with a total of around 1 inch. mountains and foothills 1 to 2 inches. Nothing crazy, but another wet 36 hours.
Thursday we still can see some showers, but the system will move out by the afternoon. It does not look like the daytime hours Wednesday or Thursday will be a washout. We will see some sun breaks during the day. Most of the construction world will still be able to work both days.
Looking into the weekend we will be cool with a warmup Saturday and dry through at least Sunday. Next week the jury is still out with a few weak systems moving through to the north.
It Is more likely these will stay to the north of the forecast area, but time will tell.
April is near, and hopefully, drier weather will start to prevail.
Jack Martin
3/27/23
Good Monday morning,
Another chilly start to the day with 32 in Santa Ynez, 39 in Camarillo, and 41 in Santa Barbara.
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-120.0698547363281&lat=34.61796626893967
Highs today will vary due to the winds. Camarillo will see the warmest weather with 73 degrees due to the Santa Ana winds. SB 65 and Santa Ynez 68, overall a nice day after the cold this morning.
Tuesday now looks to be dry during the day, before the next cold system arrives Tuesday evening. Right now you can see the low-pressure system spinning in the Pacific Northwest.
https://zoom.earth/ This will drop South Tuesday and bring us more rain, cold temps, and Mountain snow. Snow levels will start off higher Tuesday night at 5000 to 6000 feet then drop on Wednesday to 2500 to 3000 feet by Wednesday night. Rain will start up Tuesday night and last through Wednesday night, and possibly into Thursday morning. We are expecting ½ to 1 inch coastal and 1 to 2 inches in the foothills and mountains. Thursday night the Spring Northwest winds will come up as the system clears out. As we work our way through another week and into the weekend, we will start a slight warm-up and dry weather.
We are looking for an extended period of dry weather. let’s hope that April will bring us dry weather and warming.
Enjoy 2 days of dry, before we get a storm with 1 inch or so of rain.
Have a great week, March is almost over …
Jack Martin
3/23/23
Good Thursday morning,
Finally a break from the rain, Amen. Today will not be cloudless but it will be dry. More sun on Friday and no rain until Tuesday.
First, let’s start with rain totals for the year to date.
This chart goes back to march 1st, so you will need to look at the graph and chart it yourself. As of yesterday, 8 am Santa Barbara is at over 33 inches for the year ( this does not include rain from yesterday). With yesterday’s rain, we are over 34 inches. Normal rainfall is 18.24 inches. We are almost double for the year we are way over double for the season. I really think it will be hard to beat the record year of 1998, of 46.97 inches.
likely we will get to #2 for this year that goes until October 1st, 2023. Personally, there is no way I want to break a record;” I have had enough of this rain”.
https://files.countyofsb.org/pwd/hydrology/Historic%20Data/Rainfall/historical%20graphs/100yr%20Rainfall.pdf
Here is where we are at as of Wednesday at 8 am: https://files.countyofsb.org/pwd/hydrology/Rainfall%20Reports/rainfallreport.pdf
As you can see we are getting really high on the chart. With this last system, we have received 1.5 inches to 5.25 inches of rain in our local area. San Marcos pass is getting close to 30 inches, in the past 30 days https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/lox/scripts/getlocal.php?prod=LAXRRMSBA
Now the forecast for today and into the next week. You can see the North flow and the system moving out of our area. https://zoom.earth/
Today there will be some clouds and even some build-ups over the mountains. There is even a very slight chance for 1/10 of an inch of rain over the hills.
Tonight, north winds take over and we will see 20 to 25-mile-an-hour winds to the north with gusts of 35 miles an hour. We will see how the trees hold up.
Friday winds switch to the Northeast. Temps will only warm slightly, with frost in some valleys Friday night.
The weekend will be in the upper 50s to mid-60s. Sunny and dry through Monday day.
Monday night into Tuesday the next system shows up. another cold system with .75 inches of rain to 1.5 inches. Also cold with 4000-foot snow levels.
We are hoping this will be the last system for a while, enjoy the dry days for the next 5 days.
ok, that’s my weather for the day, now off to my day Job.
Enjoy the dry weather.
Jack Martin
3/22/23
Good Wednesday morning,
It seems I always start the weather report with a good morning. Today as I thought about this being the 12th atmospheric river of this season. I almost put otherwise in the heading.
Today we will see another very colorful map from the national weather service with warnings and watches for all, and high surf, coastal flooding, and winter storm warnings and watches. We have it All.
Last night did everyone get the warning on the TV, cell phone, and radio of a tornado watch in Ventura? Here is a short video from yesterday from Ventura where a tornado did land.
https://photos.app.goo.gl/HWcTAtvm9rhobnUR9 (thanks Peter)
Besides this, I don’t know how many trees tumbled for the day, but I knew of at least three by 10 am. Regarding rain Tuesday the main front went through a little faster than originally thought, so the skies started to clear around 11 am then turned to showers.
Then crazy rains, thunder showers, and hail in the afternoon, and last night made the afternoon exciting. Rains have resulted in 2 inches in Montecito, 3 inches on the Pass, and 1.5 in most other locations.
This is not over yet. We will still see another 1/2 to 3/4 and possibly more in the mountains today. The low-pressure system fueling all this cold air and activity is still spinning over the Bay Area.
This is throwing some minimal shower activity over us, but as the day progresses the front will open and move south. https://radar.weather.gov/station/KVBX/standard
This will create more rain for all. The more frequent showers look to be in the afternoon before it all moves East tonight.
Snow levels are dropping to 3500 to 4000 today, snow is likely in the higher elevations and the Grapevine today.
Thursday through Monday looks to be rainless, still some clouds at Times and very cool weather. Thursday will be the coldest day of the week with temps 15 degrees below normal.
Thursday night strong north winds will come up and likely topple more trees 🌲 No I don’t own a tree company, but keep those trees trimmed.
Friday and into the weekend some minimal warming, but at least no rain.
Monday also looks to be dry at this point, but another system will arrive Tuesday into Wednesday. At this point, the strength does not look as strong as this one, but the way this season has gone it might pick up strength over the next few days. Right now that’s in the future, we need to get through the rains for today.
For Thursday’s report, the excitement will be the rain total for the season to date.
Jack Martin
3/21/23
Here we go again, but today we will see a little of everything with strong south winds, heavy rain followed by cold temps tonight, and lots of snow in the mountains.
The low-pressure system started to bring rain last night and will pick up steam as the day progresses. The parent low is further South than typical, so due to pressure, gradience winds will be strong from the south. https://zoom.earth/
Winds today will be 15 to 30 miles an hour coastal, 30 to 60 in the foothills, and 60 to 75 miles in the mountains. This will lead to numerous trees dropping throughout the area. If you are listening to the news, you know that a tree dropped on the southbound Carrillo st south on the ramp that is now closed.
It is likely many of those fast-growing eucalyptus trees will fall today. The tree trimmer will be quite busy today, along with roofing contractors …..
It seems this has been an endless rainy season, with the heavy rain just starting up now. This will continue until noon then tapper off some. We have seen around ½ to 1 inch so far, but the real rain will fall in the next 6 hours. Coastal we will see 1.5 inches of rain and double that in the mountains. We are expecting 2 to 3 inches coastal, 3 to 6 in the mountains, and possibly more on south-facing mountains.
As far as snow goes snow level will start out at 5000 feet and then drop to 3500 feet tonight. Mountains will see high winds, multiple feet of snow above 5000 feet, and 2 to 10 inches at 3500 feet above tonight. needless to say, being outside in the mountains is not the place to be.
It does look to be a wild day with all the tarps on roofs whipping around. Rain will fall on Wednesday but be more showery on Wednesday.
The bulk of the rain will fall today through noon, afternoon the rain will tapper some.
The good news is after the rain stops on Wednesday; We will see dry weather through Monday. Chilly with only highs in the low 60s. Then Tuesday is another chance of rain. Will this ever stop, well it does not look like the rain will stop in March, The good thing April is right around the corner.
Have a great day in the rain, we will be getting wet on roofs again, please let this stop…soon ….
Here is the radar right now https://radar.weather.gov/station/KVBX/standard
Jack Martin
3/20/23
Good Monday morning,
The National weather service was perfect with Sunday’s forecast. Most of the Santa Barbara area received 1/10 of an inch or less. With SLO in the 1/4-inch range.
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/lox/scripts/getlocal.php?prod=LAXRRMSBA
Today the calm before a much stronger storm arrives tonight. You can see the parent low spinning to the north and the subtropical clouds north of the forecast areas.
https://zoom.earth/#view=31.9,-135,4.72z/map=live
This will allow us to have a dry day here, but as the spinning low drops south, so does the AR (atmospheric river). Rain will start off lighter overnight then the real Action begins on Tuesday morning. The National weather service has now moved up the heavy rain to Tuesday morning now. This system is going to be different from the last but offers the same result with lots of rain heavy at times. The main difference is the good southerly flow and wind. It will become quite a wind from the south starting Tuesday morning with strong winds along with a period of 3 to 6 hours of heavier rain, likely mid-morning.
Rain rates will be .5 to as much as 1 inch per hour. This will result in 1.5 to 3 inches of rain coastal. 2 to 4 inches in the mountains and 5 inches on the south faces of Montecito. Just look at this colorful map, with lots of watches to come https://www.weather.gov/lox/
This is also a colder storm with snow levels varying from 3500 to 6000 feet. Snow levels will start at 4000 feet climb to 6000 Tuesday and drop to 3500 feet on Tuesday night. How much snow? above 6000 feet is looking at 2 to 4 feet of snow. above 5000 10 to 20 inches, and 4000 2 to 10 inches.
Wednesday we will see lots of showers due to the colder air. This Wednesday will be wet compared to the last Wednesday due to the cold air and showers.
Thursday, we dry out again. The good news is we are looking at the first dry weekend in the past 6. Don’t get too excited because chatter is about another storm possible early next week. Don’t count the chickens before they are hatched, the 7-day forecast is still a way out. We trust a 7-day forecast as much as a 2-year-old not getting into trouble. We will focus on the current rainy weather which will only boost our season’s rain totals getting us closer to the top of the wettest rain season on record. There is no way we will top the 1998 El Niño year, but #2 is still possible and we are likely to double the normal rainfall for the year.
Enjoy the rain, you don’t have a choice.
Have a good dry day Monday, lots more rain to start tonight.
Jack Martin
3/15/23
Good Wednesday morning,
Well, the rain is almost over for now. The Santa Barbara area was the target of this storm, with light rain still falling at 4 am. Yes, poor Pearl got wet again this morning. The storm totals were very impressive for our area as the south-facing area had the greatest rainfall. In Santa Barbara and Montecito, almost 4 inches of rain fell. The Pass had around 6 inches
Looking to the north and south the numbers dropped quite a bit to around 1.5 inches. It is quite the contrast from us. This was thanks to the south flow and our lovely mountains.
Here are the results: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/lox/scripts/getlocal.php?prod=LAXRRMSBA We just had another day of 24 hours of steady rain. Please let this STOP.
Now we are off to hump day, the good news is the rain is almost out of the picture as the last of the showers roll through this morning. Thank goodness we will see a break and sunshine. https://zoom.earth/#view=28.7,-112.7,4z/date=2023-03-15,03:00,-7/map=live
It looks like Thursday and Friday will be dry, but another weak system for the weekend, yes I think this will be 4 weekends in a row. This system is much weaker, and could actually miss us, but the models really can not make up their minds at this point. Rain in SLO for sure, then we will see how far south this goes.
Looking into early next week, Monday will be dry. Then Tuesday another storm and another atmospheric river. This will bring us another round of moderate to heavy rain, of which I don’t want.
We will see the predicted rain totals as they start to come into the picture over the next few days.
In the meantime enjoy cooler temps, sunshine, and dry weather for at least a few days.
Tomorrow, I will give you the season’s rain total for the year as we continue to climb toward one of the top 5 wettest years recorded.
Smile, the 🌞 is near us for a few days.
Jack Martin
3/14/23
Wet Tuesday morning,
Here we go, as we wake you will find rain outside. Pearl was not happy about working her way to the rain and wet grass this morning to do her business.
The rain right now is on the lighter side, but the intensity will really pick up around 10 am at the skies open with heavy rain throughout the rest of the day and tonight. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/TextProduct?product=laxqpslox
2 to 5 inches coastal, 4 to 8 inches in the foothills, and over 8 inches in the mountains. These are just some crazy numbers.
I just read the National weather service forecast discussions. the wording was Greek for most of you.
The biggest item that I got out of this is we will have a big storm with clouds topping at 34,000 feet.
The low-pressure system this morning is pushing south and combining with the sub-tropical moisture.
With all the ground completely saturated and the heavy rains and winds. We are going to see the creeks turning to rapids with trees, power lines down, and slides in numerous areas.
I am still amazed at this rainy season’s weather, which just does not go away. The models have shifted to a wet pattern continuing for the next week.
Friday afternoon into the weekend, we will see a weaker system with ¼ to ½ inches of rain. Dry weather for the first 2 days next week then “OMG” another AR will bring us rain midweek.
This also looks to be a good rainmaker at this point, but time will tell. The only good news after almost 3 weeks of on-and-off rain in March is we will likely get into a dry pattern for the rest of March, then April arrives where we generally will have drier weather . “let’s put this rainy season behind us “ California has really been hammered with rain and snow this season.
Just look at lake Tahoe with the snowpack at the #3 year on record and after today they will be #2 which was in 1982, 41 years ago.
https://snowbrains.com/651-currently-3rd-snowiest-winter-ever-recorded-in-lake-tahoe-ca-and-theres-more-coming/ “(Thanks Adam for this info)
Here is the Zoom earth shot from the sky, you will see the big blob heading right at is https://zoom.earth/#view=45.3,-108.1,4z/map=live
That’s it for now, get ready for a wild day.
I will likely give some updates during the day as the strongest part of the storm arrives
Jack Martin
3/13/23
Good Monday morning,
It was great to see the Sun on Sunday, even if it was just for a short time. The best was the longer daylight into the evening.
I even found myself out on the deck with the heaters glowing, the extended daylight felt like spring would be coming soon.
Where we are all hoping for spring, the weather gods feel differently. Today we will see relatively dry weather through the day.
This will give us time to get ready for a significant storm that has a formula for heavy rain. This one has better dynamics than the system Friday.
We have off the coast the AR (atmospheric river), good south flow, and strong rotation with this next front. This means Santa Barbara mountains will get hammered.
Are you ready for the forecast !!! As the saying goes a picture tells 1000 words, just look at the satellite move the picture to the right and you will see the AR coming in from Hawaii.
This is the fuel. look to the North as the low starts to drop https://zoom.earth/#view=40.3,-127.9,4z/map=live with the 3 ingredients coming together look out.
Like I said earlier today is going to be dry, with only some fog or drizzle in a few locations. SLO will likely stay foggy most of the day. Highs will be in the low to mid-60s.
This morning we are starting out quite warm with most areas in the 50s, because of the marine layer, blanketing over us. We have today to get ready for the event.
As we get into tonight the low moves closer and the event will begin, It will start out with light rain overnight before the real event begins. Then from 7 am to late Tuesday night, the heavy rain arrives. It will be a wild day with rain rates of ½ inch to 1 inch per hour. With the saturated ground, the creeks will have a heavy flow. On top of that the south-facing mountains will see the greatest rain, with 7 inches possible. The coastal and foothills in Santa Barbara and Montecito will see 2 to 4 inches locally. The good news, if any is the rain will be shorter than the last system.
The bad news is rain totals will be greater. We will be in a flash flood watch ( this means flooding is possible) If it turns into a warning that means it will happen (we are not there now ) So don’t worry. It looks like the rain will taper Tuesday night and Wednesday we will begin to dry out with only some showers possible.
Thursday dry. Then Friday a weak system will come toward the central coast, hopefully, any rain will stay to the north. Time will tell us, then late in the weekend one more weak system. We are not even going to pay attention to them at this point.
If you believe the 30-day forecast we should start into a dryer period ( I do not ) Just look at what they say about tomorrow the 14th https://www.30dayweather.com/en/d/united-states/california/santa-barbara/ obviously this has not been updated. As always, the only forecast you can begin to believe is a 7 to 10-day forecast.
If it means anything, I am hoping for 70s 😊
Get ready for hopefully the last wild event of the year.
We will send out a new update Tuesday morning or later today if it warrants.
Jack Martin
3/10/23
Good Friday morning and another wet day,
So far, we have seen anywhere from ½ inch to 1 inch of rain. Rocke Butte In SLO has seen more than 5 inches so far.
As you can see the AR is in SLO now and will sag south slowly throughout the day.
https://zoom.earth/#view=30.1,-117.7,5z/map=live
This is going to bring heavy rain to our area today and tonight https://www.weather.gov/wrh/TextProduct?product=laxqpslox
Rain rates are going to be ½ to 1 inch per hour for us. In SLO there are values of 1.5 inches per hour. The heaviest rain for us is still to come later today.
Rain totals are in line with the original forecast of 2 to 4 inches here, 5 to 8 in SLO, and more than 10 inches in higher elevations in SLO.
Rain will start to break up Saturday, with some sun and showers.
Sunday and Monday will be dry with some warming.
Tuesday through Thursday we are still looking at another strong storm with 1 to 3 more inches of rain.
Hopefully, we will start spring soon with dryer weather and 70s.
Stay tuned.
Turn those clocks ahead Saturday night before you go to be if you don’t have a smart clock.
1 hour of less sleep, but the sun stays up 1 hour longer in the evenings.
Jack Martin
3/9/23
Good Thursday morning,
Today you all have graduated from weather school 1.0. We will now call the Atmospheric river AR ( this is way easier for Jack to type)
It is a chilly start to the day with Santa Ynez at 37 degrees, SB at 44 degrees, and Ventura at 47 degrees. Highs today will low 60s.
Just look at zoom earth, the satellite is setting us up for the next storm and the atmospheric river that comes with it.
Look at that strong low-pressure system spinning over Oregon and pulling the AR up into the pathway, aimed at the central coast. https://zoom.earth/#view=37.7,-122.1,4z/map=live
The event will start later in the day over the central coast then as always move south.
Today we will see dry during the day, then rain chances increase for us to 30% after 4 pm. The rain will start out on the lighter side this evening, then pick up as we go overnight.
Rain will start up in Ventura tonight, then in LA around midnight.
Friday we will have Game On, as this will be the day that the AR mixes with the low and create the heavy rain. The central coast will be hit the hardest, as the AR is aimed right at SLO and Monterey counties. Rain totals in those locations are likely to be 5 to 8 inches. As the AR drops south Santa Barbara county is set up for a good rain also with 2 to 4 inches.
Rain will be heavy all day Friday then the AR will begin to break up Friday night.
Saturday is partly cloudy with light showers possible. Sunday dries, with the storm track switching to the north. The storm track should stay to the North through Monday when the next system drops over us. Confidence in how much more rain is still not clear, but 1 to 3 inches is predicted Tuesday into Wednesday.
The snow levels will be high for Friday’s system at 9000 to 10,000 feet. Snow melt and flooding is possible. Tuesday’s system the snow level drops to 7000 feet, still pretty warm.
Friday will be the day with the heaviest rain for all with 2 to 4 inches and rain rates of ½ inch to 1 inch per hour. Some flooding is possible, as the ground is still saturated.
Enjoy the dry Thursday then look out for a crazy Friday!
Jack Martin
3/8/23
Good Wednesday morning,
The calm before the storm, Today we will see dry weather with cooler temps. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. This is about 8 to 12 degrees below normal.
Did you know this has been the coldest winter in 50 years?
Thursday will be relatively dry with the rain chances not showing up here until Thursday night. Here is how it looks from the sky. https://zoom.earth/
On Thursday morning you will really start to see the development of this system. It will be crazy when the atmospheric river affects the areas.
This will be more to the north than to the south. Areas Morro Bay and north with see 4 to 8 inches of rain “yes that’s what the weather service is saying, coastal and foothills.”
Rain In SB will start up Thursday night lighter to moderate to start. Friday will be a washout in the words of the National weather service. Rain will be heavy in all locations point conception and to the north. Expect 2 to 4 inches in the Santa Barbara area, and possibly more in Santa Ynez. The AR river will move through Friday evening and then turn to showers.
It looks like a little rain Saturday, but the event will be over through Monday.
Tuesday the next system, models agree this will bring more rain and likely another 1 to 2 inches.
Wow, are we getting tired of the rain “ I am” . If you do believe the extended forecast, then we will see dry weather after the second system goes through.
Batten down the hatches once again, some flooding is possible. The snow level will be 10,000 feet, but the good news is the least rain will fall in the snow areas.
LA will see the least rain from the next system with ½ to 1 ½ inches. Enjoy the fun or whatever we call it …..
Jack Martin
3/7/23
Good Tuesday morning,
We will have another extremely interesting weather pattern late this week, however, for the short term we will see dry weather with maybe some marine layer Wednesday.
The short-term forecast is easy https://zoom.earth/ dry conditions for the next 3 days. Each day will warm slightly into Thursday day, with highs in the low to mid-60s.
Then the real excitement begins Thursday night into Friday. Low pressure to the north will work its way south and rain will start up.
It also looks like the rain will hook into the atmospheric river in the Pacific. Right now this is aimed at Northern California, and this will be a very warm system with snow levels at 10,000 feet.
This is not good, because the melting snow combined with heavy rain will create flooding in NorCal and the central valley. This system is looking to drop a lot of rain. 2 to 7 inches in NorCal.
How will this system affect us? SLO will see lots of rain, if you want Nacimiento and San Antonio lake to be at 100%, this storm is for you. Here in Santa Barbara county, we are also looking at good rain of 2 to 4 inches. This will fall Friday early morning into Saturday. The AR (atmospheric river ) has a narrow ban so LA will only see ½ to 1 inch.
It looks like we will see clearing Saturday afternoon through Monday. Then long-range models are calling for another strong system on Tuesday.
My goodness, this has just been a crazy season that just does not want to end. If you believe the 30-day forecast we will start to see sunny weather and even 70s the rest of March with rain on April 2nd, Just before Dina’s Birthday https://www.30dayweather.com/en/d/united-states/california/santa-barbara/
Enjoy the dry weather for the next 3 days, then look out for Friday, it will get very interesting.
Stay tuned 😊
One last item that I want to bring up to anyone that thinks they are interested in adding solar to their homes or businesses.
On April 14th SCE and PGE will change to NEM3 ( Net metering ) what this means is we are currently in NEM2 until April 13th. You must file an application to qualify for NEM2 before April 13th and really you need to do this in the next 10 days, or you will miss out. NEM 3 WILL REDUCE BY 75% WHAT THE ELECTRIC COMPANY PAYS YOU FOR PRODUCING ELECTRICITY FROM SOLAR.
If you submit your application before April 13th you will get the NEM 2 rates and be grandfathered into NEM rates for 20 years. Also, the good news is you have 3 years to complete your solar system. If you are thinking of solar you better jump on this right now. Think of this as a 75% off sale which will end in early April. If you are interested email me and we will fill you in.
Your time is very limited because the application takes time, and you must have the paperwork done by the middle of March, and we are very busy on the solar side.
Just in case you did not know, one of my other companies is Action Energy.
Jack Martin
3/6/23
Good Monday morning,
Weather will calm this week with Mainly chilly temps, it is going to be another interesting week.
Today that low-pressure system that brought us rain Saturday night and Sunday morning is moving east with showers as far south as Santa Ynez. https://zoom.earth/ The rain total from our system over the weekend was 1/4 inch locally. The winner was lake Cachuma with .55 of an inch.
Today we get a break likely through Thursday. We will see dry cool weather in Santa Barbara with highs today in the upper 50s then warming through Thursday to the low 60s.
Now it brings us to Friday and into the weekend, sadly it looks like more rain will arrive Friday. The models are even talking about a chance that the next system could hook into an atmospheric river.
Now don’t get your blood pressure up yet, this is just the long-range models so we will need to watch this. It does look like more rain; The worst part of this next storm is the snow level will rise to 8000 feet.
If heavy rain comes this will melt snow and create flooding below the snow locations. We will see how this all plays out later in the week.
Hopefully, the rain will be lighter ” I am tired of the rain.”
and I never thought I would say that.
On the lighter side
This morning that a look to the west and look at the Moonset. (attached photos)
Also Pat sent some great photos from Truckee with all the snow yesterday, it is just crazy how much they received this weekend. (attached Photos)
(thanks Pat!!)
Enjoy the dry cool weather this week, and as always stay tuned for updates for the end of the week.
Jack Martin
3/5/23
Good Sunday morning,
I hope everyone got a good night’s sleep. I slept in till after 6 am today. Look out there as I fed Pearl this morning the deck is wet.
Most locations last night saw a little rain 1/10 or less, Cachuma was the big winner at .43 of an inch overnight.
Today light showers today and cool weather as a weak system moves through. the snow level is at 2500 to 3000 feet with 1 to 3 inches of snow possible in higher elevations.
We will not see much more rain today, as mentioned yesterday we are expecting a total of ¼ of an inch. Just light rain and drizzle is expected. https://zoom.earth/
The good news, one week from today we turn the clocks ahead and we will see one more hour of daylight in the evenings. Hopefully, that means Spring is near.
Monday through likely Friday we are looking at dry weather and a warmup to a whopping 60 degrees, but at least it will be dry.
The jury is still out on next weekend, as one long-range model calls for cool and wet, and the other says dry. They will figure it out.
I am ready for a dry weekend it has been 3 weeks now with rain.
Enjoy the damp Sunday, just cool and damp, with not a lot of rain highs today at 55 degrees, and lows at 42 degrees in Santa Barbara, 53 in Santa Ynez. and 36 tonight (chilly )
We will be back with good news on Monday with sunshine in the forecast.
It was a pretty Saturday with clouds and a little bit of sun. ( attached photo from my house )
Sorry for the late forecast, yes, I slept in 😊
Jack Martin
3/4/23
Good Saturday morning,
The sunny skies of the last few days will change to cloudy, and the marine layer moving in today. https://zoom.earth/
Looking out there you can see the clouds moving in as a weak cold front will affect us for the next 2 days.
Today is interesting to start the day, because Santa Barbara is 44 degrees to start the day, and Santa Ynez is 48 degrees. That is not typical.
Highs today will only increase slightly to 54 degrees. It will be a cool day with not much sunshine.
Tonight the rain chance starts to increase, then on Sunday the same. This is not a big storm, only 1/10th to ¼ of an inch.
The snow level will drop to 3000 feet with traces of snow in the hills and the grapevine with 1 to 3 inches of snow.
Next week we are looking at better weather through Thursday. Dry and warmer each day.
Friday is still not clear, and the models still don’t agree, but models are faring dryer.
Lastly, The weather we had earlier in the week has reached the East coast and is making the national news today. Snow is everywhere back there, and that’s the big story on the news.
Now let’s have some fun.
Yesterday there was a launch of a rocket at Vandenburg, Wes got some great pictures that I had to share.
With all the rain of the season, I was wondering how this season compares to other record years. I figured we were way up there in the wettest years, but this is not a fact. This year was very wet, but nowhere near the record years, we are around the 6th wettest year recorded. here’s the data.
https://files.countyofsb.org/pwd/hydrology/Rainfall%20Reports/rainfallreport.pdf
Jack Martin
3/3/23
Good Friday morning,
Another Friday after another wet week. It has just been incredible how many wet weeks we have had this year.
I can not remember any year since I moved here in 1982 with more rain, even the 1998 El Nino year.
Finally, the drought control folks have realized that we are not out of the drought in California.
https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/losangeles/news/california-drought-update-winter-storm-lifts-regions-out-of-drought/
The good news is we will see a few days of dry weather, through Saturday.
Saturday night into Sunday we will see a chance of rain, they are at 40% for us now, but it will be ¼ of an inch or less.
This will be a very cold storm again with snow levels around 3000 feet. https://zoom.earth/
Sunday it will be cloudy and cool.
Monday through Wednesday will be dry, with offshore winds and some warming. The warming that occurs will still be below normal temps in the low 60s.
Thursday the Jury is still out on the change in the weather. The models are not in agreement, one is wet and the other is not sure.
We will watch how it goes into next week.
At this point, it looks like Saturday night we can see a little rain-snow at 3000 feet, ¼ inch or less. Next week dry until Thursday then a big question Mark.
Stay tuned and enjoy a few days of good weather.
Jack Martin
3/2/23
Good Thursday morning,
Amen, we get a break from the rain. All the rain has created lots of problems, but the good is the outcome of all our lakes have water.
I know I keep going back to this report that is updated daily, but these numbers are just crazy. 206% of normal for this time of year countywide. 151 % of rainfall for the entire year from October first to October first and we still have 7 months to go for the season https://files.countyofsb.org/pwd/hydrology/Rainfall%20Reports/rainfallreport.pdf
Now for the forecast. Today is cool but sunny. Highs will make it to a whopping 61 degrees. Nights in the 40s. Winds will be a reasonable 5 to 10 miles an hour.
Dry weather will remain for likely the next week with no big systems out there. There will be a slight chance for rain Sunday night and Tuesday, but these systems look to stay to the north, not affecting our area with rain, maybe some clouds.
Highs will remain in the upper 50s to low 60s . with lows in the 40s in coastal areas and 30s in the valleys. All in all, we will get a chance to dry out and get a few more tarps off roofs.
Enjoy the dry period, check out the photos of June lake with a wall of snow. (thanks Peter)
Jack Martin
3/1/23
Good Wednesday morning,
Welcome to March. The cold front is really marching in with force this morning.
The winds are whipping this morning with 40-mile-an-hour gusts at my house.
Last night we said goodbye to February with some interesting rain, wind thunder lighting, and another .75 to 2 inches of rain, just crazy as the rain totals for the season keep adding up.
Today we will see chilly temps, wind, showers, and snow in the local mountain as the low pushes south out of our area.
It looks like the showers should last till around noon and the wind will hang around all day.
Tonight, is really cold weather, especially in the mountains and valleys. Expect freezing temps.
Thursday we will be dry and sunny through Saturday and part of Sunday. Temps will rise into the low 60s warming us up slightly.
Sunday and into next week the jury is still out on whether we will see more rain.
A weaker system will affect the central coast Sunday night into Monday, but the models still are not sure how far south the rain will go.
Midweek is another weaker system with the same question mark. We will have to decide how that plays out as we get into the weekend.
In the meantime, the core of the low is pushing through now and will be with us till noon, with showers, https://zoom.earth/
LA is getting the bulk of the rain now.
Enjoy the Fun, calmer days will prevail on Thursday.
Jack Martin