3/30/18 Weekend Weather
Good Friday morning,
Oh another week come and gone. Also, another month. We will close our March and welcome April, however, it looks like May out there. Low clouds and fog will continue to keep coastal areas cooler. Fog will burn off in the late morning and clear to sunshine in the afternoon, unless you are in Santa Ynez. There you will find more sunshine and 10 degrees warmer. Yesterday I was in the valley and it was so much warmer then SB.
High pressure will move east on Saturday, and this will cool everywhere down.
Fog will start out the morning, then clearing as it burns off.
Highs in the upper 60s and low 70s.
This pattern will continue through mid-week, then long range forecast has a possibility of rain late next week. At this point they think we might get lighter rain, and areas north to get heavier rain.
They are calling this a mini atmospheric river. Aimed more at nor cal.
This is way out there in the extended forecast, so we will watch and focus on the weekend. Enjoy your holiday weekend. Easter is here…
Have a great weekend.
3/28/18 Wednesday Forecast
Ok, this will be a quick one.
Sunny and warm through Friday.
Marine layer along the coast for Saturday and Sunday, with clearing in the late morning or afternoon.
Valley areas will be warmer and sunnier.
The start of the next season will set up for the weekend. This is when the valleys stay sunny and warm. The coastal areas see some fog… then sun…
That’s it for today, sunny high pressure through Friday. Highs in the 70s.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
3/27/18 Tuesday Morning Forecast
Good morning,
Well, we made it thought the wind in Santa Barbara. Now it is time for it to shift to Ventura and south.
Off shore flow is in high gear, with winds in all Santa Ana locations blowing away. Wind today will be 20 to 30 miles an hour in coastal areas.
Up to 50 miles an hour in the mountains. Expect these winds through Wednesday.
Everyone will enjoy a nice warm up through Friday. Highs in the low to upper 70s for the next 4 days.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
Friday, we change back to onshore winds. This will cool us a few degrees each day through the weekend. It will still be a nice holiday weekend, just not as warm.
There is no rain in sight. The 10 day forecast calls for continued dry weather.
Have a great day, it is warming up to the mid 70s today.
3/26/18 Love Spring
Spring is in the air. With spring, it usually brings us some wind. This is a typical event as pressures change. Wind has been with us for the past few days, and we have one more day of wind.
As of yesterday, the winds will calm some during the day, then come back in the evening. We have one more day of winds in Santa Barbara and the Santa Ynez valley before it shifts to Ventura south on Tuesday. This will set up a Santa Ana event. Ventura and points south will feel the wind for 2 days. Everyone SB north will warm up into the 70s. This will continue through the week and the 10 day forecast has no rain in it.
This is going to make a great Easter in our area. Easter egg hunts will be in perfect spring like conditions. As we all can see, the rains of the last 2 weeks are making our hillside a pretty green. So nice to see, way better than the brown and black.
High pressure is taking over, for at least the next 10 days.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
Enjoy the great week of some wind and a lot of sunshine.
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3/23/18 Blue Skies Return
Good Friday morning,
How sweet it is to return to blue skies and no rain. It has been long rough days for me the past 3 days.
Great news is Montecito creeks did well after reviewing 4.12 inches of rain this week.
Like I said earlier in the week, this rain would be the test. Well we got high marks.
Here are the totals everywhere. Santa Barbara wrapped up with 3.97. Mountains with 5 plus inches.
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/lox/scripts/getlocal.php?prod=LAXRRMSBA
Now time to march forward. There is one more system that will brush us this weekend, but rain chances are low. Rain will only be Santa Barbara county and north.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
Starting next week, we are looking for dry sunny weather all week, with off shore flow.
This will create sunshine to green up our brown and black hillside.
Now that will be a pretty sight. Paradise has had a rough go of it the past 3 months. Let’s return to what we love about this area.
Hope everyone enjoys the weekend. I know I will…it has been a long week.
3/22/18 Thursday Morning Excitement
Are you ready!!
We will compare this storm like the 4th of July fireworks. Yesterday was the fireworks and today will be the grand finale.
All the cards are now line up. The rain backed off, or went to the north last night. It is back with a vengeance today.
We have seen 2 to 2 1/2 inches of rain so far. It is going to be crazy today. South facing areas “like Montecito” can see double the rain from yesterday.
Yesterday, the mountains received about the same amount of rain as the coastal areas.
Today they can see up to 4 times more.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
Today as a weather system, everything lines up for quite an event. As I type, it is raining hard out there.
We have the cold front moving on with good south flow. This will bring us rain rates of 1/2 to 3/4 an inch per hour.
There is also a chance for thunder storms. As a matter of fact, I heard thunder 15 minutes ago. Where these occur, rates of 1 inch per hour can be expected.
The weather service was right on when they put out a statement yesterday the said 5am to 11am would be the heaviest rains.
It is not even 5 am and the rain is coming down hard.
Expect rain heavy though noon, then turn to showers later this afternoon.
Coastal areas of SB should wrap up with over 4 inches from this system, and mountains 6 to 10.
Today is the test for Montecito…..
Friday, the sun returns, but who cares at this point. It is about today….
We will find out what Mother Nature brings us.
I tried to get this forecast out faster than my normal study time, more to come today.
3/21/18 Are You Ready for the Action?
Ok, game is on….
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-ft.html
The system was going to start out slow yesterday, with only light rain to start. It did remain quieter than expected, with most areas getting 1/4 to 1/3 of an inch before 4 am.
At 4:30 am, the heavier rain started, and this will only get heavier. The atmosphere is saturated to the ground, so anything that falls from the sky, lands on you.
Today and tonight is going to get wild. Heavy rain will fall over the next 36 hours.
Rain is picking up in the Santa Maria area and Santa Ynez, with moderate rain here.
The heavy rain will reach Santa Barbara late this morning and Ventura early this afternoon. Rain is going to be heavy throughout the day and night.
Tonight, we have a chance of thunder showers. Where these occur, rain rates will climb to 1 to 1 1/4 inch per hour. That will be the true test… If you stayed in your house in Montecito last night, well the event is today and tonight…
I suggest getting out of there and watch from a friend’s living room or hotel.
Don’t be lulled to think this storm will not meet the hype, because it will….
Looks like we will have steady rain through Thursday, then begin to taper to showers.
Looks like the sun will begin to return on Friday. The weekend should be dry.
This system has good south flow. That means the mountains of Santa Barbara and Montecito will get the most rain…
Have a good rainy day, try to stay dry… I wish I could say the same….
Here is what we are expecting over the next 18 hours.
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?new&wfo=lox&afos=laxqpslox
3/20/18 Tuesday and 72 Hours of Rain
Good Tuesday morning,
Jack could not sleep, so I was up before 3 am…Thinking about the weather of course…..
It is going to start a busy week of rain. This day has arrived. Regardless of what you call this. Pineapple Express, atmospheric river, we are going to see the start of a prolong rain event. 72 hours long.
Do you remember Feb of 2017 when Lake Cachuma went up 35% in one day, and Montecito got 10 inches of rain? Well I am sure you all do… this is going to be one of those events.
Take a look at the satellite. It shows the system spinning and pumping the moisture right at us.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-ft.html
Last year, we did get through a storm like this, but we did not have the fire and the hills stripped. This will really test our creeks and hillside.
The AR is aimed right at us, regardless of where it takes a direct hit. 60 miles in either direction, will see the heavy rain. Basically, there is no avoiding this system for SLO to Ventura . If this takes a direct hit on SB, the totals will climb.
I had numerous calls yesterday from friends in Montecito, asking if they should leave.
For me, if I lived there I would!!! The rain will not come as fast as the Jan 9th storm, but we will receive 3 times the rain over a 72 hour period. If a rock blocks a creek, the long period of rain will mess with the normal flow, and there will be no way to stop it.
Ok, that’s enough of that. You know what I would do….
Rain will start out today on the lighter side. Rain can show up as soon as noon. It will feel like a typical storm, but it will pick up in intensity and rain for days all the way through Thursday. The heaviest rain will come Wednesday night into Thursday. That will be the biggest test time.
How much rain? They are still talking 2 to 5 inches coastal and 5 to 10 mountains.
Santa Barbara will get hit the hardest, because of our mountains. Expect Montecito will receive the most, just like last year…
Ok, you are out of time to prepare. It’s show time… we will just need to watch it now.
For the record, this is setting up to be the biggest March storm in 30 years …
We will let you know what’s up as the hours and days roll on…
3/16/18 Friday Morning and Weekend Forecast
Good Friday morning,
There goes another week. Looks like another cool day today, with average temps 8 to12 degrees below normal. It is amazing to me looking back. For the past few weeks, temps have been well below normal. Looking back to Jan and February, temps were the opposite and well above normal. The weather cycle has taken an about face in the month of March.
Here is our next storm system approaching. It is raining in Paso and SLO now. This should arrive here around 8 to 10 am.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
This system will be a little colder than the last two, but rain will be about the same. Rain will be light to moderate for around a 6 to 8 hour period, with periods of off and on.
Total will be on the lighter side, 1/4 to 1/2 coastal and up to an inch in the mountains.
This will all clear out tonight.
Saturday you will wake to sunshine, however, as the day progresses you will find clouds building up over the mountains. This is a result of the core of the low passing us. Rain will be showery and brief. We expect to have some periods of rain, mainly over the mountains.
Sunday throught Tuesday looks to be a dry period, with no rain. Temps climb into the upper 60s and low 70s Monday and Tuesday.
After a week of rain, this will be a nice break.
Wednesday through Friday, the models all agree we will see rain. We just do not know how much or when?
As discussed yesterday, we need to watch this. The mid-range models have been anything but good over the past few weeks.
We will see what they are saying by Monday, but they are hinting at a strong system possibly. I will believe this when the models are consistent 72 hours out.
In the meantime, enjoy the rain today. Saint Patrick’s day is Saturday. All you Irish and want to be Irish for a day.
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Of course, enjoy the dry weekend, except for Saturday evening.
3/15/18 Thursday Forecast
Good Thursday morning,
We waited until 8PM for last night’s rain, but we had good totals for the short period of rain.
Everyone saw 1/2 to 1 1/4 inches from yesterday’s system.
https://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/images/countyPrecipMaps/santabarbara_24HRprecip.png
Today, we start out with the wind. “Blowing hard at my house”, however, sunshine will prevail today.
More rain is on the way. The next system will arrive Friday. We are looking at light to moderate rain most of the day Friday, with rain totals around the same as last night.
Every little bit adds up, and for Montecito, little at a time is better.
Http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-WV.HTML
Looks like we will have a dry weekend. Rain clears out early Saturday morning, so you will wake to sunshine.
Sunday will also be a nice day with a little pop up ridge forming. Great for Jack Johnson at the Bowl (see you there!)
Monday and Tuesday are now looking good, where they were talking at one point about rain Tuesday night. It looks like Wednesday night is the start of this next event.
This is still a ways away, models suggest we could see a 36 hour period of moderate to heavy rain. We will need to watch this one closely as it approaches.
A few things to think about with the forecast models over the past 2 weeks…they have been anything but perfect. Where they did call for rain, the timing and intensity was not very good.
With that being said, next week’s system could fizzle to a lesser event. I don’t want anyone to assume or panic at this point.
We will just need more time to know what will happen.
For all my Montecito friends, I appreciate you trusting my forecast. I know how hard it must be on you all, not knowing whether you will need to leave.
I feel sorry for you all. A home is a place you can take shelter normally. With the conditions after Jan 9th, this has all changed. I will do my best to keep you informed…a special Thank you to Bill for the kind words.
I do work hard to study and write this forecast each morning.
Have a great day, sunshine will prevail today.
3/14/18 Wednesday Rain Update
Good morning,
Rain, Rain, and more Rain…We have been waiting for this all year, and it is coming in March. The good news is the rain has been coming with less than hourly rates of 1/2 inch per hour.
The nice easy soaking is going to green up the hills and get some growth going on the Montecito hills.
More rain is on the way today. It is raining in SLO now, and will be here around 1 pm.
Looks like today’s rain will start up north to south and arrive from noon in Santa Ynez and SB 1-ish. Then Ventura and south later in the afternoon.
Thursday, the system will pass, but more rain for later Thursday and Friday. All the rain should be light with rates under 1/3 an inch per hour.
The once big storm for Thursday is now a light system, because the low will stay over Oregon. This will keep the rain rates down, in Southern California.
Friday, another wet day, but it looks like a nice weekend now.
Saturday and Sunday should be dry. Monday will be the nicest day of the week, however, look out for Tuesday and Wednesday. Where this is still 6 days out, models are advertising a strong system with potential for heavy rain.
Now let’s not panic yet, because the models have really had a hard time figuring out how much rain we will have with these recent storms, so we will need to watch this as we get closer.
Rain yesterday ranged for 3/4 to an inch in most areas. All of the totals are beginning to add up. More rain will add to these totals over the next few days.
Enjoy more rain…. stay tuned…
Sorry for the late report… it is Jim’s fault. He kept me up later then normal last night.
3/13/18 Rain is Knocking on Your Door
Good morning,
Hope everyone slept well. The rain must have, because no rain to note so far. Don’t worry, it will arrive soon. The low is pulling the subtropical jet over us once again. This time we have better dynamics for heavier rains. Here’s this morning’s satellite video.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-ft.html
Rain will start up from 6 am to 8 am. Showers are showing up to the north right now in Santa Ynez. Rain will arrive in SB mid-morning, then travel south to LA this afternoon. Like the last storm, this is a warmer system. The difference is it is going to rain harder.
The heavier rain should arrive around 9 am and last till 2 pm. Rain rates are going to approach the 1/2 inch to 7/10 of an inch per hour. This will test the creeks in Montecito. I have to go to carp first thing this morning. I hope CHP does not decide to close the 101. That would make my day unfortunate; maybe I should pack a travel bag!!!!
Rainfall is going to be an inch to 1 1/2 in SB. The rain should taper off mid-afternoon and turn to showers. Rain over LA will linger into the later afternoon.
Tonight, only a slight chance of showers.
Wednesday a dry day, but rain returns over night into Thursday. Thursday’s rain is going to be lighter, 1/2 inch or less.
Friday and Saturday, the next system arrives. Models have really had a hard time on this one. They cannot decide if this will be a moderate rain or heavy. Now they have shifted back to moderate…what does that mean?
Well one inch maybe…We will wait and see. We should know what is happening by Thursday morning.
Looks like Sunday will be a dry day. The sun will shine for Jack Johnson at the bowl.
Looks like we have more rain for Monday, as another system is advertised to bring us more rain.
Bottom line, it will be a rainy period. Rain through at least early next week, with breaks on Wednesday and Sunday.
Enjoy, update early Wednesday.
3/12/18 Rainy week to Come
Good Monday morning,
Lots of Action for this week. We are setting up for the wettest week of the year, with rain every other day into Saturday.
Here is our next system, knocking on the door.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
Today we look to stay dry though the day, with the exception of North County. Tonight, the rain will begin to move in. Rain will start up north to south tonight and early Tuesday after midnight.
Tuesday will be a wet day for all. LA will see rain move in for the commute. This storm system has a good circular motion and will create south flow and some wind.
Santa Barbara and the hills will get a nice soaking, however rainfall rates should stay under 1/4 inch per hour. Rain will taper to showers Tuesday afternoon.
Wednesday looks to be mostly dry, with only a slight chance of showers.
Thursday, another system. Forecast models do not have good agreement at this point. We will need to see how things develop with this system. Rain is likely, but how much is still in the Air!! (pun on the word air.)
Friday and Saturday, there are more uncertainties. Models are doing different things with this storm. Rain is likely, just how much is the question. Models the past day have dropped off on the intensity of the rain.
We will need to watch this as the week progresses. This did and does still have a chance for heavier rain.
Looks like rain turns to showers Saturday afternoon.
Then Sunday looks to be a nice day for Jack Johnson at the bowl. This should be a great show with lots of friends there.
Also on a side note, I will be on Mark Snideman’s Radio real estate show today at 11:20 if you want to listen. It is on 1290 AM radio.
In the meantime, enjoy a wet week. Looks like I will have to pump water out of my pool this week.
3/9/18 Friday Weather Update
Good Friday morning,
Subtropical moisture is heading our way. Low pressure is steering it right over us. You can easily see it on the satellite.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
This is going to affect our weekend weather. The good news is rain will be steady, but light to moderate rain. We will see a nice 6 to 12 hours of rain with 1/4 inch per hour.
As I mentioned in the Thursday forecast. The model guidance would be crisper today. We are right on track.
This system is out of the south west and is going to be more tropical like. Snow levels are going to be 8,000 feet. Rain totals are 1 to 3 inches in south facing mountains. South flow will make Santa Barbara and Montecito see greater rain totals. We are looking at about an inch in coastal area. Other locations, 1/2 to an inch.
Rain will start up Saturday morning, with the more consistent rain Saturday afternoon and night. Rain will taper to showers on Sunday, with cool temps and with some sunshine.
Now for next week…….
We are looking to have quite an interesting week. We are looking for periods of rain next week. 2 systems will affect us. First, late Monday into Tuesday is another subtropical one. Timing is not perfect right now, but rain should be similar.
The system Wednesday night and Thursday is the one to watch!!!!!!
The will be a cold core system out of the gulf of Alaska. This is going to drop into the forecast areas and tap into subtropical moisture. If this all comes together as models show it, we will get heavy rain. Cold air will squeeze all the rain out of the clouds.
Everyone will be watching that system closely.
In the meantime, get ready for a wet period over the next week.
March is starting out to be our wettest month of an extremely dry year.
Have a great weekend, don’t forget to turn those clocks ahead before you go to bed Saturday night.
This mean Lynn and I might be waking up at 5am instead of 4am for a few days.
Enjoy the extra light we will all see……
3/8/18 Thursday Weather Update
Good Thursday morning,
The back side of our work week is closing in and so is the rain.
Everything seems to be on track for a wet weekend. The good news is the rain looks like it will not come all at once. Rain will be light to moderate over a 6 to 12 hour period. Totals are going to be 1 to 3 inches in the mountains and .50 to 1 inch coastal.
This is good news again for Montecito.
This system is out of the west and will move closer over the next 2 days. It is going to steer the subtropical clouds over us and produce rain. Snow levels will be high with this storm, because of the west track, around 8,000 feet.
Here is a picture.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
For today and Friday, we will see high clouds. No rain is likely. The only possibility of some rain is north county.
Friday night, the low gets into better position and rain will start up some time Saturday. The exact start of the rain is not clear yet, but likely Saturday afternoon.
Rain over night and into the first part of Sunday.
Looks like we might be getting into a wet period. More rain Tuesday into Wednesday and another shot on Friday of next week. This is all a good thing, just as long as it is a light steady rain.
We will see how next week shakes out, right now we will focus on Saturday’s rain.
Friday’s forecast will give us better timing.
Have a good day, and I will be checking in on Friday.
3/7/18 Good Wednesday Morning
Well another Wednesday, our forecast for the next system gets a little clearer each day. Here is the system we are watching.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
This was south west over the ocean a few days ago. It is moving into the Pacific Northwest. This will be the weather maker for our weekend.
Today, high clouds are streaming over us from the south. The only thing this will do is cool us a few degrees today. To the north there is a chance of some light rain or sprinkles.
Tonight, winds are going to be out of the south west and shift to the northeast. These will be light, but make it so no rain will fall.
Thursday will be a transition day. Chance of rain increases to the north of us. There is a chance of rain, but 20% at best here. Rain will likely stay north in Paso and above.
Thursday night and Friday, the same solution. Slight chances of rain, but should stay north…
Friday night, the rain chance starts to increase.
Saturday, rain. Right now it looks like the heavier rain will be later in the day.
Sunday, rain. This storm will cause rain. We are just not sure how much yet, and when.
If you see the satellite picture, you see the subtropical jet streaming over us. The low is just too far to the north to create rain for us.
The rain totals will all come together in the next 24 hours. Right now it looks like 1 to 3 inches are possible in the south facing mountains. (Santa Barbara hills) Coastal around 3/4 to an inch.
Rainfall rates 1/4 per hour and maybe as much as 1/2 at times.
Bottom line, we will have rain, we will get a better feel on this over the next day. Rain ends Sunday night or Monday.
Nice day Tuesday, then another chance of rain Wednesday.
Ok that’s the update today. Stay tuned. Things can change, because the models still do not have a good Handel on the start and rain totals.
3/5/18 March the 5th
Good Monday morning,
Here we go again. Another work week launching.
The week is going to start with dry, nice weather, with highs the first 3 days in the upper 60s and low 70s. Then it is looking like rain may be in the weekend forecast.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
So what is in store for us this week?
Monday through Wednesday, we will all experience nice weather sunshine and mild temps from north to south.
Santa Ynez, you have good weather through Wednesday. Light winds 5 to 10 miles an hour, then Thursday night you are looking at rain.
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=120.09022711070665&lat=34.63430219589317#.Wp1Q9ujwaUk
Santa Barbara, same forecast, but rain Friday. No wind for us.
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=119.68711069973651&lat=34.4282246010615#.Wp1RVujwaUk
Ventura, Oxnard, and Camarillo will feel some wind, along with warmer temps. There will be a mild Santa Ana event Monday and Tuesday. Winds will be 15 to 25 miles an hour . This will warm things up, but you will feel the wind.
HTTPS://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?Lon=119.23100133923052&lat=34.24399914882764#.Wp1RfejwaUk
The weekend will likely bring rain.
The extended forecast is shifting. There was always a system moving in on Thursday, but this was going to stay mostly to the north. Now it is looking like we will see rain everywhere for the weekend. Of course, the extended forecast is always hard, because these weather systems are coming off the pacific. This next one is spinning over the ocean right now. There is now chatter that it may mix with subtropical moisture. If this does happen, it can be a very good storm. There are still many variables so we will have to watch this as the week goes on.
Rain chances will start as soon as Wednesday night for the central coast, and Thursday night into Friday on points to the south.
So what this all means is we will have 3 nice days, then transition into possible wet weather. How wet is yet to be determined, but STAY TUNED….
Enjoy the good weather to start the week.
As a side note to my friends in Santa Ynez and Ventura . Notice I did call you out !!!!
Don’t forget Saturday night we turn the clocks ahead and daylight saving returns…
That’s exciting !!! The return of longer days will be fantastic.
3/2/18 Rainy Friday
Good morning,
Rain has arrived, and it is a nice steady rain. Rain has been on the lighter side along the coast. Most areas have seen less than 1/2 an inch so far, but San Marcos pass has seen 3.25 inches.
https://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/precipMaps.php?group=sv&img=3
Take a look at the rain total on the central coast, over 7 inches in areas.
https://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/precipMaps.php?group=cc&img=3
So what’s up for the day? Steady light to moderate rain will continue through this afternoon. The low is parked over Oregon and pumping light rain into the area.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
This will turn to shower later today and continue through Saturday. This is because the system stalled and rain started later than first thought. The good news is the rain has been on the light side.
We will continue to see rain for the next 36 hours. This will be in the form of showers.
Sunday, it all clears out. High pressure builds in. And it warms up.
Monday, a Santa Ana event and we might even see some 80s.
Tuesday, we will continue warm and nice.
Wednesday is looking dry now. The model that had a weak system with rain, removed it. There may be onshore flow with fog.
This is still way out there, so all may change. In the meantime, we love the nice light rain. Let it come at this rate for a day, as far as I am concerned, we need it.
Have a great day.
Enjoy the rain.
3/2/18 Weather Update for Thursday Evening
Thought I would give everyone a quick update.
The system is inching closer. You can see the closed low spinning to the north of us.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
Heavier rain will spread south tonight and hit Santa Barbara around mid-night. Rain is still on track for us in the Santa Barbara area and Montecito.
Expect higher totals in the mountains, up to 3 inches with 1/2 inch per hour possible. Down along the coast, this will drop off quite a bit. SB and Montecito will still see good totals, because of the south facing.
Maybe 2 inches is about right, and less intensity in hourly rain fall. Less than the 1/2 inch.
Ventura and LA are going to see less rain now. Looks like 1/2 to 1 inch coastal in LA, and up to 2 inches in the mountains.
Snow levels will also drop to around 3500 to 4000 feet tonight.
There has been rain today in all the hills, but very spotty coastal. Rain has been steady all day in Paso and areas north.
Talk to all in the morning.
3/1/18 Ok, The Big Day, Rain is Coming!
As promised, the forecast is out early and Jack is up quite early today ready for the day.
Lynn and I for sure…
Good March the 1st. Yes it is a new month. February was a total bust for rain, but will March supply a March miracle? Well, we are looking at a good start, because this will be the first stronger system since Jan the 9th.
A day and date we will all remember for a long time. Now let’s not go into a panic!!!
This system does not have the same elements as the January storm, but we will get a good soaking.
Take a look at the satellite. The storm looks quite impressive.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
So when will the rain start? Well per frontal, stuff is moving south, some rain is over Monterey right now. This will continue to move south over the next 6 hours.
SLO could see rain by 9 or 10 and Santa Barbara 11 or 12. The rain, to start, will be on the light side.
Here it is now.
More likely the rain will start by 2pm in SB.
Later this afternoon, the southeast winds will kick up pretty strong. Expect 15 to 25 mile an hour winds ahead of the front.
Tonight’s rain, heavy at times. This is when the real storm arrives. We will have a 5 hour period of rain after midnight. Rain rates will be moderate, 1/4 to 1/3 of an inch per hour.
Mountains should see max rates or 1/4 to 1/2 inch per hour.
This is below thresholds set by the county flood control, so Montecito should be all right. Creeks are going to flow pretty strong, but they should stay within their banks.
Friday and both Saturday will bring us showers. This is thanks to the low parking over us and spinning around. This will bring us showers at times. These will be hit and miss, but everyone will experience them at times.
The system clears out Saturday morning by noon.
Sunday through Tuesday looks to be dry. Wednesday, maybe a weak system, but way too far out to call.
All the focus will be on today’s system. We will see what shakes out later in the day.
Earlier just lighter showers, overnight moderate rain. Totals look good as predicted.
1 to 3 inches of rain. South faces (SB) will see amounts to the higher end.
Ok you’re prepared now. Have a great day!
Day light saving is 10 days away. Our days are getting longer and daylight savings will make it better.