1/30/23
Good Monday morning,
As we all wake up, we have some scattered rain showers out there. These are going to continue till about 11 o’clock this morning. Then we should begin to clear up. You can see the rain currently moving to the south it’s just a little wraparound over.
https://radar.weather.gov/station/KVBX/standard
Rain totals of varied anywhere from 1/10 to a quarter of an inch. Montecito has been the big winner with .26 so far . The snow level is at 3000 feet and snow is falling on the grapevine and interstate 5 with traffic being escorted through the snow area. local Mountain will see 1 to 2 inches of snow and higher mountains 2 the 4 inches this morning.
Today will see the rain chances decrease as the day goes on then Tuesday through Thursday will have dry cold weather with sunshine.
Friday another system rolls in this week we’re only affect northern Santa Barbara County and SLO county .
Saturday dry then Sunday another system rolls and this looks to be a little bit stronger and will affect our area. All rain later this week will be on the lighter side with no atmospheric river connection. I hope everybody has a great week and enjoy the cold weather because it just seems to continue week after week. Next week is set up for another cool week.
Have a great day
Jack Martin
1/29/23
Good Sunday morning,
Chilly, cool and cloudy are the words of the day. As the day progresses we have a chance of some light rain mainly in the afternoon and evening then overnight. We will see some additional rain with approximately 1/4 inch or less along the coast and up to 3/4 of an inch in the mountains. Today will be quite chilly with temperatures 5° to 10° below normal. Most areas will stay in the 50s to low 60s. The snow level be quite low with snow in the local mountains. The snow level will drop to 2000′ to 2500′.
Naybe some morning showers on Monday but not a lot of rain and it really won’t disturb the workday. Monday night everything clears out.
Tuesday we return to sunny but cooler temperatures. And that’s really the forecast for the week. There’s a weak system that will come in Thursday night and into Friday. It really shouldn’t affect our weather here but there may be a slight chance of some rain in northern SLO county. Saturday into Sunday it looks like another system will work its way towards us. No word on what that will do to us at this point.
As far as Lake Cachuma water level, we are at 98.4% and still continuing to rise very slightly. Lake Nacimiento is still at 86%. Just an incredible rise in Lake levels in a period of a month; amazing! Enjoy your cool Sunday. It’s a great day to watch football starting at noon. The Niners are playing the Eagles and I’m sure George’s house will be people yelling for every play the Niners do well. George I wish I could be there with you. Coming home soon.
Have a great day
Jack Martin
1/28/23
Good Saturday morning,
It will be a quick report today because I have a busy morning. Today will be 5° to 10° cooler than yesterday as offshore winds turn to onshore flow as a low pressure system begins to move towards us. The only real effect for today is that it will be cooler than yesterday; sunshine and some clouds drifting in this afternoon… by tonight, there should be some winds from the northwest nothing over the top.
Sunday morning some areas will wake up to some light rain or drizzle. For the most part a dry day, cloudy and much colder. Temps will drop another 5° to 7° from Saturday. Snow level will be at about 4000 feet by Sunday night. Sunday night into Monday morning the rain chances begin. This will not be a big storm. Looks like anywhere from 1/10 to 1/3 of an inch depending on where you’re at and it will be quite chilly. Snow levels Monday night will drop to 3000 feet or below.
Tuesday things clear up and we should have a dry three days. Then on Friday a chance for another weak system coming through, but it appears that it will stay in northern areas of Santa Barbara and southern areas will stay dry. More to come on Sunday.
Jack Martin
1/27/23
Good Friday morning,
The weekend is almost upon us. Another work week is coming to a close and a few days off for all. Today the winds have calmed to the south and we are slated to have a chamber of commerce day. Temps will be in the upper 60s with lots of sun and mild offshore flow. Just a great Friday for any January.
Saturday offshore turns to onshore with cooler days. Saturday night low clouds return.
Sunday morning maybe even be some drizzle in the foothills with a cool day. It will be a great day to watch championship football. Did you know the 4 starting quarterbacks are 23 to 27? The next generation is taking over. I want KC and the 49ers in the Super Bowl.
Sunday night it looks like everyone will see a little rain starting, but not more than 1/4 of an inch. Rain will be very showery and fall into Monday ending mid-day. Rain will not be more than what lawn sprinklers would drop. (I hope everyone’s sprinklers are still off, you don’t need them for a while)
This will be a chilly system with snow levels dropping to 3000 feet.
Tuesday through Thursday looks like we will have dry weather with warming each day.
Thursday should be fantastic with warmer temps.
Jack Martin
1/26/23
A quick update from last night.
Today all the wind is to the south as a Santa Ana event is beginning today.
Winds have been slow to start, but they will build as the day goes on. It looks like Montecito will be spared from this event, only Ventura and the south.
In SB just a cool start to the day with really no wind, it will warm to about 64 degrees.
Friday will be a great day for all this no wind south and warmer temps. It will be as good as it gets for this time of year.
Saturday a reversal of offshore to onshore winds. And a much cooler day.
Sunday looks to be ok, but clouds will increase as the day goes on.
Sunday night the rain chances begin, but in Santa Barbara, it looks more like Monday morning is the best chance for rain. Rain will be light with no more than 1/2 inch in total. Most areas will see less.
Tuesday we are back to sunshine and dry weather for at least a few days.
Have a great day, for me, every day that passes is getting a little better.
Jack Martin
1/23/23
Good Monday morning,
This week is all about the wind. Last night the winds in the Montecito hills blew to 90 miles an hour. Everywhere else also felt the winds but more moderate Level from the northeast. We will still feel some wind this morning, but they will be less and the brunt of the winds are now in Ventura and LA. Their world will rock today.
After the winds pass today we are left with sunny skies with only a few high clouds
https://zoom.earth/maps/daily/#view=30.4,-128.8,4.06z/date=2023-01-23,pm
Tonight it will be chilly but no wind. Valleys will see freezing temps and a lot of frosts on roofs Tuesday morning. Highs during the day will just be in the 60s.
Wednesday same as Tuesday but a few degrees of warming.
Thursday another wind event from the northeast, and the Montecito hills will rock again.
Friday we warm up through Saturday, with little to no wind.
Sunday the jury is still out with models differing. We will see how that plays out as the week progresses. One model is calling for some rain the other for some more wind.
We will see how it plays out.
Enjoy your day!
Jack Martin
1/22/23
Good Sunday morning,
Dry weather is the forecast for the week, but the wind will be an issue in Montecito this afternoon and tonight. Expect 30 to 40 miles an hour northeast winds with gusts to 55 miles an hour. https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-119.60242509841919&lat=34.46071114125401#.Y81Rli-IafA
Later tonight winds move into the LA mountains with 70 to 80 miles an-hour gusts.
The good news is high pressure has built-in and we will see a ridge keeping all weather to the north. https://zoom.earth/maps/daily/#view=42.2,-107.3,4z/date=2023-01-21,pm
Dry cooler conditions for all with freezing temps Monday night in the valleys and 40s in Santa Barbara. Highs will be in the 60s and climb to the mid to upper 60s as the week goes on. Next weekend the models are not in agreement but it looks like dry weather through Saturday. Then a chance of rain may come back, but it is way to early to call for rain.
Look at all the lake levels at 96%. Rainfall to date is 255% of normal to date. Total rain is now 112% of total rainfall for the year with still 8 months left in our season. Lake Naciemento at almost 88% https://www.co.monterey.ca.us/home/showdocument?id=22189 this is all great news for water supplies and summer fun on the water.
Have a great Sunday, we will talk soon, maybe not every day because the weather is pretty stable this week.
Jack Martin
1/19/23
Good Thursday morning,
Sorry about not reporting Wednesday morning, circumstances kept me from writing one.
Today we are looking at a very slight chance of rain likely 1/10 of an inch or less.
This system will only brush us and I do not think it will make it over the mountains. A little rain in Santa Ynez late morning. SLO earlier this morning. If the rain makes it to Santa Barbara it will not be until this afternoon.
https://zoom.earth/maps/daily/#view=35.2,-105.9,4z/date=2023-01-18,pm
Friday we are looking at a weak Santa Ana event, this will be cold with light winds.
Some freezing temps Friday night in the valleys.
Saturday and beyond not a lot of excitement. A few systems will brush the area but no rain is in the forecast just some wind at times, with cooler weather.
Enjoy the first weekend with no rain since Christmas!
Jack Martin
1/17/23
Amen,
It looks like mostly dry weather for the next 2 weeks. That is music to my ears.
Let’s start with the results of all this rain we have had over the past 4 weeks. Nacimiento is at 87% , Cachuma 90%. Rainfall for the year to date is 275% of normal.
San Marcos pass 48.26 inches for the year to date, 30.71 inches this month alone. Rainfall for the year countywide 111% which goes through October of 2023.
Just crazy numbers!
https://nrwmac.org/lake-levels/ , https://files.countyofsb.org/pwd/hydrology/Rainfall%20Reports/rainfallreport.pdf
What’s to come for the rest of this week, we all felt the winds blow hard last night. The skies are going to be so clear today. High-definition views
Today, a chilly start with some wind at 40 degrees in Santa Barbara and 39 degrees in Santa Ynez. It will be a chilly day with highs only in the 50s. Otherwise a nice sunny day.
Wednesday will be a great cooler day, sunny but chilly. Wednesday night an inside slider comes down the coast bringing a chance for rain.
This is moisture-starved, but there is still a 30% chance for ¼ of an inch or less of rain. Mainly over the mountains.
Thursday the chance of rain continues, but this will not be much of a storm, If any.
Friday, is sunny and clear after the winds of the inside slider. Still temps below normal, but warming each day.
Saturday, A Santa Ana event is back, with offshore winds. It will be warming into the low 60s, but not beach weather.
Sunday is more of the same.
Monday into next week, models can’t decide yet, but it will be dry. There will be an inside slider or high-pressure building.
It does look like we will have an extended period of dry weather allowing all our yards to dry out. They are like a sponge right now; you just sink as you walk on them.
As the sun returns just watch those mountains turn green, it is going to be a perfect photo opportunity.
Enjoy the dryer weather, but remember still something Wednesday night into Thursday.
Jack Martin
1/16/23
Good Monday morning,
The end of our rainy historical 4-week period is almost over, Just look at these results from lake Cachuma. There are tons of logs everywhere near the dam, but it is 89% full right now.
I don’t think anyone is fishing in that mucky water, but it is a beautiful site. It has been 12 years since it was full. That was a long time ago.
The storm yesterday rolled in a little faster than thought originally but has been a calm storm with only minimal rain. Results to this point are 1/2 to 2 inches.
Here are the rain totals for the past 48 hours, with another great result.
The Pass is over 4 inches, Montecito 3 inches.
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/lox/scripts/getlocal.php?prod=LAXRRMSBA
Today the core of the Low is in the bay area, with them getting Hammered again. This will move south and give some heavier showers later in the day. mainly in SLO
It has been an incredible run for all of California in the past 4 weeks https://zoom.earth/#view=35.22,-118.95,6z/map=live
We will see showers today, with some on-and-off rain. However, the 4-week rain event is at the end with sunny skies starting Tuesday morning.
Rain today will be light with showers into the evening.
Tonight the snow levels drop to 3500 feet and rain comes to an end.
Overnight we will get some North winds and cool temps.
Tuesday sunny skies and cooler. Temps all weeks will remain below normal but begin to warm.
Wednesday is an inside slider, which means some winds and a chance of north showers. We will remain dry.
Friday high pressure and offshore winds will make for the first sunny and dry weekend since Christmas, almost a month in normally sunny California.
As of yesterday look at these rain totals for the year. 273% of normal and 109% of rainfall county-wide and it is still mid-January https://files.countyofsb.org/pwd/hydrology/Rainfall%20Reports/rainfallreport
Mike what is the wettest season in history, and how close are we? I will assume this has been the wettest first half of January.
One more day of wet, then we get to enjoy the sunshine again.
I know every parent of small kids will be celebrating the dry weather so they can get some of that energy out of their systems outdoors.
It was amazing to see how many people were walking in the rain yesterday.
Jack Martin
1/15/23
Wow,
January 15th, 2023, and we are already at around 120% of average rainfall for the year, yes, I said the year. The more amazing part Is February is normally our wettest month and January is only half over. I have not counted the number of inches of rain that we have received in the first half of January, but I am willing to bet the farm it is an all-time record.
Yesterday another 2 to 3 inches of rain fell for all. It was dumping once again, but at least only a 6-hour period. I remember the days when a 1-to-2-inch rain was a big deal, but not this year. It is a mild event. We must weather one more system tonight and Monday morning then we all get a break from the rain.
I remember way back in the day when I moved to California in the early 80s and people told me they traveled to the Pacific Northwest to see rain. Well, that’s not the case this year, it came to us. I don’t know about you, but I am sick of it, and I need a break.
Today we will have a cloudy day with some sun peaks, don’t forget your sweatshirt because highs will only be in the 50s. A few showers on north-facing mountains, but dry for us. The next system is hot on the heels of yesterday’s. As a matter of fact, it is moving in quicker than thought. It looks like rain will start up in SLO later this afternoon and arrive here in SB tonight.
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/lox/scripts/getlocal.php?prod=LAXRRMSBA
This is a colder system with less rain. Snow levels will still be high at 5500 feet till Monday night. Then lower to 3500 to 4000 feet. The storm system will have passed by us before the level really drop.
Tonight rain starts up. Look for another 1-inch coastal and 1 to 2 inches in the mountains. As of late south-facing mountains like Montecito and Santa Barbara will see the most rain. Showers Monday with rain ending Monday afternoon.
Tuesday, amen we start a dry period with no rain for a week or so. This is great news because we all need a break. It will be quite cold however with temps remaining below normal for the week. We will creep up the Mercury a few degrees each day, but Tuesday will be quite cold with only low 50s for highs. Tuesday night is chilly with frost in lots of areas. We will not detail day by day next week at this point because I have typed too much of late.
We will call it dry, chilly, but rain free. More to come later.
Lake Cachuma is at 86.5 % still, because they have been releasing water since Saturday. When they do stop it will fill, but not until we are in the clear of rain. It has been 12 years since Cachuma has topped, and in 2023 the lake filled from its lowest level at 30%
That’s just amazing, enjoy your somewhat dry Sunday. More rain tonight.
Jack Martin
1/14/23
Good Saturday morning,
Not a lot of changes to our weather from the pattern we have been in in the past 4 weeks. I thought I would start the forecast today with an interesting fact.
As most of us are aware Santa Barbara has flooded this week, and it was pretty much through the lowest areas in Santa Barbara from the ocean and up Salsipuedes.
Do you know the Spanish meaning of this name in English? It is “Leave if you can”
translated from Spanish as “leave if you can.” Salsipuedes: Name was given to a marginal neighborhood, located on the outskirts of the municipality of Soledad, Department of Atlántico, Colombia. Do you know any other Meaning of salsipuedes?
www.wordmeaning.org/spanish/salsipuedes.htm
SALSIPUEDES – Spanish open dictionary
If you draw a line from the ocean up Salsipuedes that’s where all the flooding was this week.
Back to the weather today and for the next 3 days, it is all about on and off rain. With 2 systems that will roll through us and give good rain totals.
The good news is the rain will be moderate, but not crazy like we saw Monday. The best part of the rains is most lakes and reservoirs will top this weekend.
The rain right now is off to the north in the bay area https://zoom.earth/ the core of the low will drop south during the day today and rain will start up again.
Rain in SLO this morning and dropping into Santa Barbara late morning. Rain rates will be ½ per hour later in the day. (this is half of what Monday’s storm was)
Rain totals today will be .75 to 1.5 inches coastal and 1.5 to 3 inches in the mountains. The rain tonight will end overnight, and we will be mostly dry on Sunday.
Sunday night the next storm rolls in. This is much colder and some local mountains in Santa Ynez will see snow.
Rain totals with Monday’s system will be lighter with another .5 to .75 inch coastal and .75 to 1.5 in the mountains.
The rain right now is moving into Paseo robles https://radar.weather.gov/station/KVBX/standard
Now the good news, it now looks like we see light at the end of the tunnel. Starting Tuesday and through the rest of the week we will see dry weather.
An inside slider Thursday, with just some wind, then Friday high pressure, and offshore winds Friday then a dry weekend. The first dry weekend since Christmas.
I might even get a day off after doing 30-plus days in a row. This will be a real treat for all. I don’t know about you, but I need a break from all this rain.
It is a Mission accomplished if we filled all the reservoirs and lakes.
For fun when do you think Lake Cachuma will top? it is at 87.4% right now. My guess is 2 am on Sunday.
Enjoy the last wet weekend, bring back the sun please.
Jack Martin
1/13/23
Happy Friday the 13th,
Did you know that Friday the 13th comes an average of every 212 days?
Did you know the myth of Friday the 13th goes back centuries https://www.cnn.com/style/article/why-friday-13-unlucky-explained/index.html
Now enough for trivia here is the forecast …
Today is transition day, rain will start to return later today. It does look like everyone will stay dry most of the day but light rain will fall late this afternoon into tonight ¼ of an inch.
Rain tonight will taper off and then Saturday we will see the second stronger impulse come in. It might even stay dry in the morning Saturday and then pick up as the day goes on.
Rain Saturday night into Sunday morning then a brief break. Rain rates will be ½ inch per hour, but it will move through much faster with 3 to 6 hours of rain.
Totals will be 1 to 1.5 coastal and around 3 inches in the mountains. This will not be like Monday’s system; it is a quick hitter.
Sunday will be dry most of the day, but chilly. Highs of only 60 degrees, Sunday night the next system comes in. This is a much colder system with lower snow levels.
Monday rain most of the day with snow levels around 3500 to 4500 feet. This will bring another inch of rain for most, and a bit higher in the hills.
Tuesday looks to be a fair day as the system exists, then we are looking at a dry period starting Wednesday, hopefully for an extended period
Some interesting facts about lakes in the Santa Barbara area
Lake Cachuma is currently at 86.2%. It will spill with the rains from the upcoming event.
Monday’s storm broke some incredible records. It was very impressive.
San Marcos Pass, 24hr Rainfall = 13.24 (previous record = 10.55 (WY2005) – also record rainfall for 6hr, 8hr, and 12hr periods.
Gibraltar Dam, 24hr Rainfall = 11.15 (previous record = 10.90 (WY2011)
The USGS Santa Ynez River gauge site measuring the main inflow to Cachuma (~50k cfs, @Los Laureles), has reported only two higher river flows in the 75-year history of the gauge site, Water-Years 1969 (~67k cfs) and 1998 (~56k cfs).
Reservoir capacities preceding the 1969 and 1998 peak inflows were at relatively high levels of 76% and 89%, respectively, versus the much lower ~36% capacity this year – resulting in a more significant reservoir volume increase..
Peak Cachuma Reservoir level rise was approximately 2ft per hour.
Happy Friday the 13th enjoy the fun day, no strikes today Maybe Monday.
Jack Martin
1/12/23
Good Thursday morning,
Today will be the warmest and driest day in the next 7, but not a chamber of commerce day. The only reason this will be the best day is that wet weather is returning through Tuesday of next week with 2 more storms affecting us.
This will top all lakes and reservoirs from all counties around us. Cachuma 84.2%, Nacimiento 73% with all climbing. https://nrwmac.org/lake-levels/ Just look at this graphic. Countywide we have received 102% of annual rainfall and it is just early January. and 270% of normal rainfall for the year to date, yes doing math that is almost 3 times normal rainfall. This does not even include the next 2 upcoming storms.
https://files.countyofsb.org/pwd/hydrology/Rainfall%20Reports/rainfallreport.pdf …… just crazy numbers………
So what’s happening today and the rest of the week?
Today we have a weak ridge that has pushed the storm track to the North, we will still see some high clouds and no rain. https://files.countyofsb.org/pwd/hydrology/Rainfall%20Reports/rainfallreport.pdf
Friday the storm track begins to shift towards us again. It looks like a dry Friday, but Friday night and Saturday the rain is back. We are looking at 1 to 1.5 inches coastal and 3 inches in the mountains. We will see heavy rain, but not as hard as Monday for 3 to 6 hours ½ inch per hour. This system even has a lot of lightning with it, so it needs to be watched.
Sunday, we get a short break between the 2 storms with only some very light showers. Sunday night the next system rolls towards us. This is a cold system and snow levels will be much lower. This will likely give the Santa Ynez mountains some white caps, it will be a pretty view.
Tuesday will be cold, but the rain should be gone. Wednesday they are talking about a ridge building ….. this means the tap will be turned off and we will get back to some dry weather for a change. It has been an amazing (no historical) 4 weeks of rain. We will remember this year for a long time.
Let’s get ready for more rain and all lakes to top…. enjoy the ride, you can’t stop it…
Jack Martin
1/11/23
Good Wednesday morning,
Wow, I had to stop and think what day it is because I have worked so many days in a row, I forgot the day.
It has been absolutely amazing with all the rain the past 3 weeks, and we have 1 more week of weather to battle.
Good news for southern California, we will see 2 dry days before the rain comes back. high pressure and offshore flow have been built-in for 2 days.
This is pushing the storm track to the north, but northern California and Oregon are still getting hammered https://zoom.earth/#view=37.2,-127.6,4z/map=live
The only rain that may fall will be on the central coast, where they may still see some rain today and tonight. For us dry conditions, but high clouds.
Thursday mid to high clouds will continue to stream over us as the ridge begins to break down, however, we will remain dry.
Friday the storm track will begin to drop towards us again, rain will start up Friday morning to the north, then afternoon for all.
This system again has subtropical flow with the atmospheric river connection. Nothing like Monday’s rain, but 1 inch coastal to 3 more inches of rain in the hills.
If that’s not enough, there is another system from Sunday night through Tuesday. This one is not clear on timing or intensity but is wetter.
All of this wild weather has been fantastic for lake levels. It is absolutely amazing that lake Cachuma has gone from 30% at Christmas to over 80% today (and rising)
It is at 81% right now Dashboard (cosbpw.net) It is also expected to spill before the end of the next 2 storms.
ENJOY A FEW DRY DAYS, I KNOW I WILL.
Jack Martin
1/10/23
OMG, what a day yesterday. Just increasable rain totals, but look at this result Lake Cachuma is at 66.7% and filling fast Dashboard (cosbpw.net) which is just amazing!
Look at these amazing rain totals for 24 hours, yes, a 1-day period. Montecito 7.5 inches, Santa Barbara 6 inches, San Marcos pass 14.60. just crazy …..
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/lox/scripts/getlocal.php?prod=LAXRRMSBA SB crushed the totals in SLO but still amazing totals https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/lox/scripts/getlocal.php?prod=LAXRRMSLO
The rain stopped last night so we could all get a few hours of sleep. Today we will see round 2 starts up. round 2 is the core of the low.
This will bring heavy rain, wind, thunder, lightning, and waterspouts or small tornados. This does not have the subtropical atmospheric river, which has shifted to the south. There will still be plenty of Action today with a few more inches of rain to fall, and more on south-facing mountains. As I type the rain is starting again right now.
The rain will end by tonight. then we will have 3 dry days to attempt to recover. more rain Saturday, then another system on Monday of next week.
when will it stop, well at this point not until lake Cachuma is overflowing, yes overflowing !!!. how many years has it been since the lake was full?
Holy Moly this has been historical, even the 1998 El Nino year was not this crazy!
Hwy 154 will remain closed for some time. Be careful out there.
Action Trucks will be filling the streets soon, trying to stop leaky roofs, windows, walls, and decks.
It is dumping at my house again right now 5:10 am
Stay dry.
Jack Martin
1/9/23
Good, rainy Monday morning,
It seems like the rain just will not stop. It was a wet Sunday with only a short break before the rain returned Sunday night.
The rain will continue to fall at a steady rate of 1/4 inch per hour until late afternoon when the skies really open up.
Most areas have already seen 2 inches of rain in the past 24 hours and there is a lot more to follow.
The heaviest rain will show up in 2 waves, for us at 4 pm today and Tuesday morning when rates will be 1/2 inch to 1 inch per hour.
yes, I said per hour ….. there will be a lull overnight then heavy rain returns Tuesday morning. Looking at the satellite you can see the atmospheric river stretched across the Pacific Ocean. This will be the supply and the low to the north will join then boom the heavy rain arrives later today,
https://zoom.earth/#view=33.8,-143.7,3.75z/map=live
Ironically today is the 5-year anniversary of the mud flow in Montecito.
This event will not reoccur today but flooding of areas is likely. The ground is saturated, and the only way out is our creeks and rivers.
It would be a great river rafting trip, but I don’t advise trying that. Creeks and rivers will likely have some flooding in the heaviest rain.
All in all this storm is going to be the biggest storm of the season to date. Expect 3 to 5 inches in SB, 4 to 8 in the mountains, and up to 10 inches of favorable south slopes.
The winds are from the south and will pick up as the day goes on. Expect 30 to 40-mile-an-hour winds in the coastal and foothills and 60 miles an hour in the mountains.
Rain will back off Tuesday night. With a ridge building in for Wednesday and Thursday. Friday should also be mostly dry, but another system rolls in for Saturday. This will not be as big, but a good 6 hours of heavy rain is looking likely. This on top of everything we have seen in the past 3 weeks is going to really affect the lake and reservoir levels for the right reasons. All lakes will be well about the 50% levels. It will be amazing to have this much water back.
As always enjoy the ride. It will be wet for at least the next week.
Stay dry
Jack Martin
1/8/23
Good Sunday morning,
Waking up this morning you will see the rain is back. Today we have a weaker system rolling through that will cause rain for the first half of the day.
Radar shows the rain falling currently https://radar.weather.gov/station/KVTX/standard
We are expecting around ½ of an inch out of this system, with a few areas in northern SLO mountains seeing 1 to 2.5 inches at locations like rocky butte. This will fall apart as it reaches LA, meaning just some rain will occur there, ¼ inch or less.
A slight break this afternoon, then here we go again tonight. The opening act will begin to play into the weather. This will start out with lighter rain tonight and most of Monday . by the time Monday night comes the headline act starts, and it will blow us up. then the encore for Tuesday.
“All in fun showing this as a concert “ Monday night and Tuesday is the heart of the storm.
This will be a great system with lots of heavy rain. Rain rates will be ½ inch to 1 inch PER HOUR. the heaviest rain comes in 2 punches Monday night and Tuesday.
Rain total will be 2 to 4 inches coastal, 3 to 5 inches south facing areas “like us in SB and Montecito”. 4 to 8 inches in the mountains, and up to 10 inches in some hills in SLO . “wow”
With the grounds being saturated with all the rains, this is going to make creeks and rivers flow fast. some flooding is likely in some areas.
Rain clears out on Tuesday night, then a ridge builds in for 2 days with dry weather Wednesday and Thursday.
Friday, yes, another system rolls in. If that’s not enough they are calling for another big system next weekend and are still on the storm track for another week after that.
We are in the middle of the wettest period in a long time. it is amazing to me, but I love it. let’s fill those lakes!
Amazing changes to the lake levels. Nacimiento is now 40% full https://www.co.monterey.ca.us/home/showdocument?id=22189 Cachuma 36.5 and climbing Dashboard (cosbpw.net)
I was in the Santa Ynez valley yesterday and the hills are all green and so pretty, with water running into lake Cachuma. It is a beautiful site.
Ok, that’s all for today, from weather😊
Jack Martin
1/7/23
Good Saturday morning,
One more dry day, before we are back into the rainy pattern. It is just crazy to think about how long we have been in a wet pattern.
The first storm started after Christmas on Tuesday the 27th of December, and it is now the 7th of January, so we are going on for 2 weeks now.
The crazy part is we still have storm after storm on tap until at least the 15th of January. That is almost a 4-week period of rain with only short breaks. Don’t think that I am complaining, we need the water supply. however, I don’t remember the last time we had this much rain in a 4-week period. Maybe 2005 or 1998. All good let’s get this over with and fill the lakes and reservoirs
Today, we will see a nice dry day. A little cooler than Friday, but overall a nice day.
Tonight, the rain will start up overnight. This system will stay more to the North and will bring us a lighter rain at ½ to 1 inch.
(it is funny to talk about a lighter rain at ½ to 1 inch ) rain will fall off, as it gets towards LA with 1/3 of an inch at best.
Sunday some morning rain, then we will see some peaks of the sun in the afternoon.
Sunday night the big system starts to affect our weather. This will be bigger than Wednesday’s storm, but it will act the same way. Subtropical winds will bring light to moderate rain all day Monday.
Monday night and Tuesday are game on, this will bring us heavy rain and some flooding. The ground is saturated, and water is going to flow strongly in the creeks. They are even talking about flooding in the Ventura river that wipes out the campground and homeless camps. We will see good south flow and winds. Coastal winds are 30 miles an hour from the south and mountains are 60 miles an hour. Rainfall is 2 to 4 inches coastal and 4 to 8 inches in the mountains. Just crazy amounts of rain we have not seen in many years.
Wednesday a few showers, but the storm will pretty much be over. It looks like Thursday and part of Friday will be dry.
Saturday another storm might be strong again. As a matter of fact the national weather service is calling for rain to continue, on and off through the 15th of January. Lake Cachuma has now hit 36%, with 50% looking quite good by Thursday of next week if not more. Dashboard (cosbpw.net) . Check out the full moon that Adam sent photos of, they are great shots
enjoy the day then lots more rain to follow
Jack Martin
1/6/23
Wow, what an amazing result from all the rain. Take a look at the Pictures of the Santa Ynez river yesterday later in the afternoon.
That dry river is flowing strongly.
Today is all about the high surf, the weather will be nice as we should see 2 dry days, before more rain Saturday night.
Right now I am listening to the local news, they should get my weather report because they are reporting lake levels with little change.
Let me give you the real facts.
The storm Wednesday was less than thought because the system blew through faster than expected because of the winds, But the results for the rain were fantastic for lakes and reservoir levels.
Gibraltar reservoir is overflowing since 11 am yesterday, with all the rain in the hills flowing into lake Cachuma.
Lake Cachuma is now at 35.1 % up over 3% in one day. With Gibraltar full, the lake will rise much faster. Click here Dashboard (cosbpw.net)
With more rain this weekend and next week, I am betting we can get to at least 50% at Cachuma by Wednesday next week.
Disclosure!! this is just me thinking about what is coming “not scientific “😊
So what’s to come, is lots more rain. Starting Saturday night 1/2 to 1 inch overnight.
We will get a break Sunday, then more rain starting Monday ahead of the Main front Monday night.
Yes, another atmospheric river is to hit Monday night. This system will be stronger or equal to Wednesday’s system. Adding another 2 to 4 inches coastal and 4 to 8 inches in the mountains: ”wow”
Even more rain into late next week and hints of another system early the week following.
For a La Nina year, I think we are doing pretty well with rainfall 😊
I love the rain, even if it makes my world crazy at work!
Jack Martin
1/5/23
Good Thursday morning,
The good news for flooding, the system moved through faster and has underperformed.
https://zoom.earth/#view=38.4,-108.5,4z/map=live
The heaviest rain is now in the LA area, with showers for us for the rest of the day. There should be another wave that will hit us late morning with heavier rain.
Rain totals have been less with around 2 inches in the past 24 hours coastal and around 4 inches in the mountains. still good rain in total, but filling the lakes is the goal.
Today showers all day, but this afternoon we should see some peaks of the sun. Everything clears out tonight, and Friday will be a dry day. https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/lox/scripts/getlocal.php?prod=LAXRRMSBA current rain totals
Friday will be a dry day, and Saturday during the day, but more rain Saturday night. This is a weaker system with 1/2 inch coastal and 1 inch in the mountains.
The great news is we are on the storm track for the next 10 days through next weekend. More rain Monday night and this might be another strong system.
Looking deeper into the extended forecast there is another storm later in the week. Needless to say, all the rain of late is keeping the ground saturated and creeks flowing.
This is great news for the lake levels, it will just take a little longer to fill them, but with continued rain, it is good news.
On a side note, Northern California has been getting hammered. Snowpack is 171% of normal for this time of year.
This is great news for runoff later in the season and water supplies.
Enjoy the rain!
Jack Martin
1/4/23 – Afternoon update
I thought I would give a quick update. The rain has started delayed slightly but it will hang around longer.
The latest update now shows up to 10 inches falling in the mountains with rain rates at 1 ¼ inch per hour later tonight. Rain will really start to come down hard around 10 pm and last into the Thursday morning hours.
All systems go for our storm system, with minimal changes. Rain amounts and intensity forecast remain unchanged, with the caveat of mentioning isolated totals to 10 inches and rates to 1.25 inches per hour. The storm will peak in intensity tonight over SLO and Santa Barbara Counties and over Ventura and LA Counties Thursday morning. The storm looks to move very slowly over Santa Barbara and Ventura Counties, which is why they will likely see the highest amounts.
This is a lot of water and the threat of flooding is a real concern. Expect a lot of roadway flooding, including a few freeway closures.
The Thursday morning commute will be bad. Several small streams will likely flood and spill over. Stay out of and away from any creeks and drainages as these could become dangerous quickly.
Jack Martin
1/4/23
Good Wednesday morning,
Before I get into the weather forecast, I want to let everyone know that my forecast is on my website daily. If you miss or want to read past forecasts for fun reading. just go to https://www.aroofing.com/ then on the top center there is a tab Jack’s weather report. Click on that and you will see the current and past reports.
Now for the report……..
Today’s date is 1234 but not in that order. We are starting out quite warm out there at 57 degrees. Today is also the start of the next storm system and this will be one we will remember for some time. All the ingredients are in place. Strong pacific closed low, south winds, and subtropical moisture.
here is how it looks right now. https://zoom.earth/#view=37.4,-126.4,4.87z/map=live
All of these elements are present that spell a very strong system that will affect us for the next 26 to 30 hours. Light rain is starting up right now across the area, this is on the light side and will continue to be light to moderate though out the day. This will be a steady rain from the warm air across the area. This will last for a good 12 hours, and accumulations will be anywhere from 1/4 to 3/4 coastal, but because of the south winds in Santa Barbara and especially the southern mountains of SB. SLO and Ventura will see 1 to 2 inches of rain ahead of the real Action.
Tonight the strong low moves over us, this will bring 60 to 70-mile-an-hour south winds to the mountain ahead of the big rains. This evening the heavier rain will begin to ramp up, as the closed low gets closer. By 10 pm we should see this event really begin. Rain rates will get to 1/2 to 1 inch per hour coastal. On south-facing mountains, they could see 1 inch plus per hour at times. Rain will fall for a 30-hour period from now to noon Thursday. Rainfall will be 2 to 4 inches coastal and 4 to 8 inches in the mountains.
Thursday at noon the system leaves and we will have a dry Friday to recover from this system.
For the weekend, the wet pattern continues. A weaker low arrives Saturday and will affect SLO county and possibly Santa Barbara county.
Monday a stronger system affects us all with early rain totals of 1 to 3 inches.
Later in the week, there is even one more system that will affect us.
Needless to say, we will be seeing a lot of rain over the next 10 days, with today’s system being the biggest.
Enjoy the craziness, we really need the rain to capture in our dry lakes, all creeks will really be flowing by the end of the day. The good news is no creeks are predicted to overflow. We will be testing the new debris basins.
Jack Martin
1/3/23
Good Tuesday morning,
Yesterday the rain really underperformed with only ¼ of an inch of rain. This will not be the case starting Wednesday.
Today is all about preparing for the rain starting Wednesday morning. It will be one of the biggest storms we have seen in many years.
To start the forecast today I wanted to talk about lake levels because the numbers are soon to change.
Lake Cachuma will hit 32% today, Gibraltar is at 57% and once it spills on Thursday all the water will flow into Lake Cachuma https://files.countyofsb.org/pwd/hydrology/Rainfall%20Reports/rainfallreport.pdf
Yes, you heard me Gibraltar will spill.
This is great news for our lake levels and this storm will be the strongest since the Mudflows 4 years ago. Don’t worry It will not be a repeat of that.
The hills are stable, and we will not see as much rain as that event, but it will pour overnight Wednesday and the first half of Thursday.
…..I guess I have your attention now …..
Today will be a dry day, with no rain. High clouds will start to roll in this afternoon as the warm front arrives overnight Tuesday.
Rain will start up Wednesday morning with a good south flow, this means good steady rain, but the rates will not be more than 1/3 of an inch per hour.
We will still see good accumulations Wednesday with 1 to 2 inches falling on south-facing hills. Then Wednesday night the event really starts. Heavy rain will occur with rain rates of 1 inch per hour, the Santa Ynez mountains could see 1.5 inches per hour at the peak. Rain will continue into the first half of Thursday heavy at times.
When the rains start to back off, we will see 2 to 4 inches coastal, Montecito 5 inches, and the Santa Ynez mountains 6 to 8 inches. This spells great news for lake levels.
Thursday afternoon the rain begins to back off, with some showers possible. Rain showers will continue in the forecast on and off through the entire weekend.
Next week we are looking for 1 more system on the 10th, then we should see a break “Amen”
As I said today is about getting ready for this one. It will be a busy day at Action. If you need help, we will be there in force.
Have a great day, dry for 24 hours, then the fun begins.
Jack Martin
1/2/23
Good Monday morning 2023,
I hope everyone had a nice New Year. Banks, government, schools, and banks are all closed today, but not roofers.
We will be preparing for a busy work week, with lots of rain to come. Today is a break until tonight, then welcome back rain.
As the morning progresses, we will see high clouds start to stream in. This will not bring any rain until tonight.
Monday night into Tuesday we will see more rain, likely ½ to 1 inch with 1 more inch in the mountains. It is amazing because San Marcos Pass has received over 21 inches of rain since Sept 1st and 65% of the annual rainfall, and that does not include this week’s rain totals.
Countywide we are at around 50% of annual rainfall.
and 169% of the average for this time of year. needless to say, we are on the right track for above-normal rainfall for the season. Lake levels have not been updated because of the holiday. Nacimento 27% Cachuma 31.7% but all levels totals are growing and will continue to increase. https://files.countyofsb.org/pwd/hydrology/Rainfall%20Reports/rainfallreport.pdf
Tuesday will be dry, with a small pop-up ridge. This will bring a warmer day with a high in the mid-60s. However, this will be short-lived.
Wednesday the rain starts, this will be like Saturday’s storm, but stronger. Rain will start up Wednesday morning just like Saturday’s system. This is the prefrontal rain and will be on the lighter side bringing another inch of rain. Look out Wednesday night as the Main front arrives. This will be the event, south flow, atmospheric river, and heavy rain. This will bring lots of rain. Coastal 2.5 inches, foothills (Montecito) 4 inches, and the mountains of Santa Ynez over 6 inches of rain.” It will be wild. “
Rain will fall through Thursday then we dry out Friday, for the weekend the storm track continues, but it looks to shift to the north. The rain will be around, but we might see only smaller amounts. The bay area will continue to see lots of rain. Looking into the crystal ball more rain the week of the 9th through Wednesday, but after that, it looks like we might see a break
https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/usa/santa-barbara/ext
In the short term, we will see lots of additional rain this week, with flooding possible Wednesday night and Thursday. I will be watching the lake levels all week.
Enjoy one more dry day and the Rose Bowl parade and game today. We will be back Tuesday with the next update
Jack Martin
1/1/23
Good New Year’s day, don’t forget to put a 23 at the end of the date now.
How sweet was that rain yesterday, the forecast models performed perfectly, and the system overperformed.
We saw great rain totals for all. Just in the past 24 hours, San Marcos Pass 4.5 inches, Montecito 3 inches, and Santa Barbara 2.5 inches.
If you were bold enough to go out last night, this is what you saw (movie above) “Thanks Polly “
Today, it is a warm start at 50 degrees, but the mercury will only rise 9 degrees to 59 degrees with wind out there.
With the rain and the wind the views today should be fantastic, the islands looking close enough to touch.
Monday we will have a chilly start to the day, but dry for most of the day. More rain will arrive late afternoon and in LA later Monday night.
This system will be weaker with only ½ to 1 inch. Still decent but we are spoiled right now with the heavy rainfall totals of late.
Tuesday the rain ends, and we dry out for 2 days, but look out Wednesday night. If the models are right this is going to be a repeat of last night and might even be better. Rain will continue through most of Thursday heavy at times and totals 2 to 4 inches and much more in the mountains. This system will be over a 12-hour period, which means it will pour at times. I can’t wait to see how this week’s rains affect the lake totals ( more to come).
Friday and Saturday are dry with more rain arriving Sunday and the week following.
Always great news to report lots of rain to come.
Happy New Year 2023!
Jack Martin