1/28/2021
Good Thursday morning,
So far the heavy rains have stayed to the north. SLO county at rocky Butte has received 13 inches of rain.
But as you move south, the rain total really have dropped off. Carp has only seen a little more then ½ inch, my house 1.47 inches yesterday and today 1/10.
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/lox/scripts/getlocal.php?prod=LAXRRMSBA
Ventura and south have seen very little rain. Some of us may be surprised on this, but it is right on track as predicted.
The atmospheric river has remained to the north over SLO, this will change today. The low will move further south and so will the atmospheric river.
By this afternoon, Santa Barbara will get hammered with the heavy rains. Then move south towards LA, late this afternoon and tonight.
There will also be very strong southeast winds in the Santa Barbara area this afternoon. As advertised, there will be a 6 hour period of heavy rains in SB this afternoon into this evening. This also moves south shortly after that. Good rain totals are still in the cards. Don’t despair, the rains yesterday will look like a drizzle, compared to this afternoon. looks like showers Friday and Friday night it all clears out.
The weekend is looking sunny and Sunday is warming some 10 degrees. Looking into the future, it looks like light rain Tuesday, then windy Wednesday.
Ok you are warned, the rain is still coming.
Jack Martin
01/27/2021
Good Wednesday morning,
The start of the event has arrived. As you all wake up you will see the rain has begun. The rates are starting light, but will build as the day goes on.
Today will see heavier rain later in the morning into the afternoon, but the real event comes Thursday morning where we will see 6 hours of heavy rain
During that period we can see rates at .75 per hour and accumulations of 2 to 4 inches.
Here is what we have seen so for today:
https://rain.cosbpw.net/map/?sensor_class=10|2880&view=8bc6e88f-eeab-4281-9d92-3d723016e945
Light accumulations over us, but in SLO they have seen over an inch. The low pressure system to the north is just spinning and pumping the subtropical moisture into SLO right now. This will shift as the day turns into night.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/conus_band.php?sat=G17&band=09&length=12
The weather over LA will be fairly calm until Thursday afternoon. At that time the low shifts south and they will get there’s. For us the rains will build throughout the day, and we will see steady rain for the next 48 hours, with the heaviest rain arriving Thursday morning. Santa Barbara and SLO are still looking at 3 to 6 inches of rain coastal and 8 to 10 inches in the foothills and mountains. Montecito should see higher rain totals with their south facing mountains being so close. The radar will be watching to see how the cells are moving in. In the meantime, the rain has arrived, but will be manageable through most of today, with heavier rain this afternoon.
Friday we will see some showers, with rain ending in the afternoon. The weekend looks dry with another system next Tuesday.
Enjoy the rain, I guess this is what we need. Water will be flowing everywhere, in some cases not where we really want it.
Stay dry !!! 😊 That will not be the case for my guys helping with leaky roofs.
Jack Martin
01/26/2021
Tuesday morning,
The sunshine is back for a day. This is kind of like being in the eye of a hurricane, but time is prolonged before the craziness begins.
Here is the big low pressure system to the north, taking aim at us:
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/conus_band.php?sat=G17&band=09&length=12
This storm system will begin the rain event over night, from north to south. This system will stall over SLO and Santa Barbara county’s, creating a wild event. LA will really be spared until Thursday night and Friday. Also their rain totals will be much less then ours. This system has good counter clockwise rotation and will tap into the subtropical jet. Rain totals for SB county are still on track for 3 to 6 inches coastal and 8 to 10 inches in the mountains. Yes this is a big one. Rain will be heavy both Wednesday and Thursday, as the system stalls over us. Our south facing mountains will squeeze out as much water out of the clouds as possible.
Friday, the shower will taper and be aimed over LA.
The weekend is looking nice, with sun and warmer temps.
Get ready, today is the only chance you have before the big event.
Jack Martin
01/25/2021
Good Monday morning,
Can you believe a week ago it was 89 degrees, and today we have snow on our local mountains.
Thanks for the photo Adam.
Today we will see wind and cold, not a lot of rain. Just showers, rain and snow.
Tuesday sunny, but windy.
Tuesday night through Thursday and likely Friday. It will be wild. Atmospheric river will pump moist air in and a stalled cold low will sit over us for 2 days. it is going to bring heavy, windy rain.
We are looking at an event that we get once or twice a year. Rivers, and steams will flow. Some flooding is likely.
That’s it for now, enjoy the craziness.
Jack Martin
President
01/22/2021
Good Friday morning,
Today starts the change in the weather pattern. We have a low pressure system dropping down the coast over Northern California right now.
You can see it spinning over the area:
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/conus_band.php?sat=G17&band=09&length=12
This is going to bring some light rain today. Expect light rain to start up mainly to the north this morning, then move south late this morning ahead of the front.
Light rain will amount to just that 1/10 to 1/4 of an inch.
https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/santa-barbara-ca/93101/weather-radar/327137
This system will moisten the dry air, but not do a lot for rain totals.
For Saturday the core of the low is over us. This will bring colder air and a chance for mountain showers.
The low passes through in the afternoon. Snow levels will be around 4500 feet.
Saturday night and Sunday look to be dry. Waiting for the next system to arrive Sunday night, into Monday.
The second storm will get us wetter and snow levels drop from 4500 ft to 3000 ft.
This system is due to arrive on Monday morning. We are expecting around 1/2 inch with up to an inch in the mountains into Tuesday morning.
Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday look dry at this point with a bigger – colder system arriving Wednesday night or Thursday early morning.
This will bring rain and snow to all areas into Friday. This system is looking to bring heavy rain to the area with accumulations of 1 to 3 inches of rain.
Snow levels will be at around 2000 feet.
It has been a long time since we have seen back to back to back systems start to affect the area.
It is all good, because we need some rain.
Enjoy the change, let’s put this Virus into the ocean.
Jack Martin
01/21/2021
It is a 12121 day,
Also, it will be the warmest day in the next week.
LA and Ventura survived the winds and we now have calm weather with weak off shore winds. Highs today will be in the low 70s.
Friday a low pressure system to the north will begin to move south. This should bring back onshore flow and some marine layer.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/conus_band.php?sat=G17&band=09&length=12
Friday into Friday night, a chance of rain descends over SLO and northern Santa Barbara county.
This system is quite dry with rain chances on Saturday of 1/10 to 1/4 , all the way into LA.
Sunday looks to be a transition day, with dry weather, but cooler.
Monday and into next week is shaping up to be wetter with cold storms Monday and Wednesday.
Models are still not sure on the totals, but Monday’s system around 1/2 an inch.
Wednesday might be quite a cold system with low snow levels and heavier rain chances.
As always we will watch how it develops.
Enjoy the warmer day, it looks like we will see the dry pattern change next week. We can use some rain.
Jack Martin
01/20/2021
Good Wednesday morning,
What a wild day on Tuesday, especially if you lived to the South.
A cut off low pressure system rolled though in the morning and actually brought a few sprinkles to Santa Barbara, then some afternoon winds.
The real Action was to the South, Ventura to LA. It started out with fog, then a strong Santa Ana wind event occurred.
The winds were clocked at 91 miles an hour in the Ventura hills.
This was one of the strongest Santa Ana events in the past 20 years. Then there were some rain showers later in the day.
The low is now parked over Baja, just spinning and keeping the off shore winds going. All rain is south of the area now.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/conus_band.php?sat=G17&band=09&length=12
Today will be windy still, ventura and south, but winds will be less and die down later in the afternoon.
Today we will have a cooler day in SB, but no real excitement.
Thursday, a weak ridge rolls in for the day. It will warm us up some.
Friday still nice, but Friday night we are looking at a low from the north dropping south. This will bring rain to central California, and maybe Santa Ynez.
2 models are calling for dry weather in SB and south, with one calling for rain and a more westerly flow. We will watch and see what happens.
Saturday another chance for rain, but models are still not clear. We will know better on Thursday.
Sunday looks dry, as a weak ridge drops over us.
Next week we are looking at a better chance of rain Monday and Tuesday. Everyone should get some rain.
Have a great day,
Jack Martin
01/19/2021
Good Tuesday morning,
Today will be a wild ride for all areas South of Ventura. The winds are now just starting to wind up.
A cold low pressure system will fuel the Santa Ana wind event for Ventura south.
This will bring up the winds to the south. 60 to 70 miles an hour with some gusts of 80.
Winds will blow hard into Wednesday morning. Winds in SB will not be a factor, lighter winds will affect the Montecito hills, but nothing like to the south.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/conus_band.php?sat=G17&band=09&length=12
Wednesday afternoon, the winds start to calm but cold air will make the next few days much cooler.
Thursday, no real excitement. Weak ridge builds in through Friday.
Friday night, things start to change. Models continue to show a series of systems that might affect us into next week.
The issue is how much rain we will see. It has been a long dry period and I don’t think the models really know.
We will likely see some rain during the period. Just how much and when is still not clear.
Stay tuned!
In the meantime, hang onto your hat. It’s going to get crazy out there in Santa Ana wind prone areas with Northeast faces.
Have a nice day.
Jack Martin
01/18/2021
Good Monday morning,
The incredible weekend in January is now behind us. Most of us are working, but others get a 3 day weekend thanks to Martin Luther King.
Today there is a low pressure system darting down the coast. This will spin right past us, giving only some high clouds. Temps will be in the lower 70s.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/conus_band.php?sat=G17&band=09&length=12
Tonight is when it gets interesting. A cold low pressure system over Nevada will combine with the system over Baja and produce a strong wind event to the south.
It looks like Ventura to LA will see the strongest winds. Some 60 to 70 miles and hour with gusts in the mountains to 80.
Needless to say it will be quite windy in Santa Ana wind prone areas.
Here in SB really no real threat of wind. Just slightly cooler temps.
The wind event exists on Wednesday, and leaves us with seasonable temps and dry weather.
As we approach the weekend, another low pressure system to the north will move down the coast.
This could give us a chance for rain, but it is still not clear on how much or where. There will be a chance of rain Friday night and Saturday.
In the mean time, if you live in Santa Ana wind areas, get ready for a wild Tuesday.
Have a nice day and stay healthy, it is pretty rough out there right now.
Jack Martin
01/14/2021
Good Thursday morning,
Wow, walk outside, you can feel the difference with the Santa Ana event.
Some areas in Montecito are starting out at 71 degrees at this early hour. My house is 65 degrees.
Yes the heat wave has arrived. Today you can expect low 80s and this will hold through the weekend with highs in the upper 70s and 80s.
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-119.72213745117186&lat=34.41710628141648#.YABKcS076fA
The Santa Ana winds are kicking up and will be around through Friday in Ventura and South, a little wind in Montecito. Santa Barbara will feel the heat only.
We will have just fantastic weather through the rest of this week, and into next.
Monday and Tuesday we will have some cooling, but still dry with 1 more Santa Ana event Tuesday.
Looks like low pressure to the south may change our weather pattern last next week with the possibility of rain returning.
This is just way too far out for now, but it will be interesting to watch “Stay Tuned “.
In the meantime, enjoy the tropical weather that we typically need to fly to this time of year.
No flights needed, this will fly over us for the rest of the week.
Enjoy, you might even need to find your sunscreen 😄
Mark, look at what it is going be like in you neighborhood. Upper 80s
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-119.02381896972655&lat=34.22542901524139
Jack Martin
01/13/2021
Good Wednesday morning,
Another chilly start to the day, however, the mercury will climb each day to give us summer like weather for the next week.
I sound like a broken record as we keep talking about another week of dry weather, each day and week.
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-119.69535827636717&lat=34.430699847453454
Today we will see more high clouds steaming in. This has been the same as the past few days.
The day time temps will continue to climb each day as the off shore Santa Ana event starts on Thursday.
Today highs will be around 75 and lows in the 40s and 30s in the valleys.
Thursday, the northeast winds begin to take over in Ventura and south. This will start our big warm up.
Thursday, upper 70s and lows will be much warmer than tonight.
Friday 80s, it will be summer like with lows warmer around 60. Winds will be blowing in Santa Ana areas.
Saturday another great day, highs again in the upper 70s and low 80s.
Beyond, just a repeat of our same weather. On and off Santa Ana event through Tuesday.
The chatter is no rain for the rest of January. We will see how that goes. You cant trust long range models.
However, that’s crazy just like the past year…..Next up, hot summer weather starting Thursday.
Enjoy.
Jack Martin
1/12/2021
Good Tuesday morning,
Today and each day forward through Friday will warm up.
Today we will see high temps around 72 temps with each day warming as the week goes on.
Wednesday 76.
Thursday and Friday 80 degrees.
Northeast Santa ana winds will come up on Thursday and Friday.
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-119.68299865722655&lat=34.430699847453454
Overall just perfect weather through this week with some slight cooling on the weekend.
Jack Martin
01/11/2021
Good Monday morning,
I hope everyone had a great weekend. Low tide at Refugio beach was so nice.
Waves, sunshine and the huge beach made for a perfect Sunday afternoon.
This week it is going to feel summer, not winter during the days.
Still cool in valley areas at night, if your waking up in Santa Ynez it is 34 degrees and 50 in Santa Barbara.
Today will be mild with some high clouds with highs in the low 70s.
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-119.68505859375001&lat=34.43013349299815#.X_xIEC076fC
To the south in Ventura and Santa Ana county you will feel the Northeast winds the next 2 days. Strongest today then tapering Tuesday.
There really is not a lot of change to the weather all week with the exception of the temps.
These will really begin to rise on Thursday and Friday with highs in the low to mid 80s. Yes I said mid 80s, that’s pretty incredible for January.
Winds will pick up again to the south Thursday as another Santa Ana event blows. No wind in SB.
The weekend will cool some, but cooling means mid 70s, still well above normal.
All in all, we have a perfect week ahead of us.
Enjoy the great weather in southern and central California.
Jack Martin
01/08/2021
Good Friday morning,
Northwest storms are creating high surf for California.
This is really the only thing that is affecting us, with the exception of wind.
Later this afternoon the wind will affect SB. After midnight winds shift to Ventura and south.
Saturday slight warming in Ventura, but SLO will be a few degrees cooler.
Dry weather is expected through next week with Santa Ana events on and off through the week.
This will result with highs in the 70s and 80s. Thursday should be the warmest day of the week. Some 20 degrees above normal.
Enjoy the summer like weather.
One correction from yesterday, Cachuma is at 64%. I was reading level from 10/31.
We still need rain, it is just not coming in the next week….
Take a look at our sad rain totals for the year.
http://www.countyofsb.org/pwd/water/downloads/hydro/rainfallreports/rainfallreport.pdf
Water is like Gold in southern California, we all need to save water as much as possible.
Have a great weekend.
Jack Martin
01/07/2021
Good Thursday morning,
It has been an extremely busy start to the New Year, the past few days have flown by.
The weather has been the only predictable item in the daily activities.
It is January the 7th, but you would never know it with our current weather pattern.
It has been sunny and warm with highs in the upper 60s and low 70s. This tread will continue until next week!!!
No, next week will not bring us rain, but it will likely bring us 80s in some areas by Wednesday.
As far as rain goes, we are looking at dry weather through the 21st of January at this point.
How Crazy is that?!
All storm systems are staying to the north. The best we will see is some high clouds and wind after low pressure system rolls though.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/conus_band.php?sat=G17&band=09&length=12
Today expect highs in the upper 60s to 70 degrees with some high clouds.
Friday the inside slider rolls though and brings some afternoon and evening winds to Santa Barbara.
The weekend also looks to be nice with Saturday slightly cooler than Sunday, and the warm up begins.
Next week, high pressure and off shore winds build in, as we warm up each day.
Wednesday should be the warmest day of the next week with some 80s in areas due to a strong Santa Ana event.
Beyond that, all models are not calling for any rain through the 21st of January.
As we all feel, we need a tropical vacation, you will get one here next week. Typically, we have to travel by air to get 80s this time of year.
The good news is lake Cachuma is at 73%.
https://countyofsb.org/pwd/cachumacamera.sbc
No worries about water yet!!!!
Enjoy the summer like weather, and my goodness don’t watch the news.
Enjoy the great southern California weather.
Jack Martin
1/04/2021
Good Monday morning,
I had problems with G suites again yesterday, so many of you did not get the forecast.
From a weather standpoint you did not miss much. Hopefully G suites will not let me down today.
Here we are starting the first work week of 2021. Also the La Niña weather pattern.
Last week we were excited about the potential of a number of weather systems this week.
Today it now looks like we are looking at clouds and northwest and northeast winds.
We will see Low pressure systems, basically wash out before they arrive in our area.
Today low pressure pushes in this afternoon. Rainfall in SLO, it will be 1/10 of an inch. We will get nothing but some wind.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/conus_band.php?sat=G17&band=09&length=12
A ridge builds in Tuesday and we warm up 2 to 5 degrees above normal
Wednesday another weak system that will give us high clouds at best.
Thursday, a weak high pressure builds in, followed by a weak low Friday.
The weekend is looking sunny and warm, with a strong ridge building in Sunday.
This will give us a fantastic day of warmth and sunshine.
To sum it up, the once thought of rain is gone for us. We will see some high clouds and wind with these weak systems.
La Niña is really starting out the rainy season with a dud.
Have a great week.
At least we still have plenty of water in Cachuma at 65%.
Jack Martin