Mid-Day Update 1/31/19
Wow, that was impressive for a weaker Thursday storm. 1.5 to 2 inches fell quickly.
https://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/images/countyPrecipMaps/santabarbara_24HRprecip.png
Now it is dry and sunny, for 24 more hours.
Then look out.
The national weather service has now upped the rain totals and hourly rates for the next system Friday night and Saturday.
Rain rates will be .50 to 1 inch per hour and possible 1.25 per hour.
Rain totals have also jumped, especially on south facing areas, like Santa Barbara and Montecito. It looks like 2.5 to 4 inches coastal and foothills, up-to 7 inches in the mountains.
I figured this warranted a mid afternoon update. More in the early morning, but this will be the biggest to date.
1/31/19
Good Thursday morning Jim… it is Thursday now!
The rain is now knocking on most all of your doors. We have a nicely defined low rolling through this morning. Rain will fall for around 6 hours, then some showers. By the afternoon we will see peaks of sunshine. As nice as this system looks from the sky, it does not have a lot of moisture to tap into.
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
Even with lack of moisture we still have south flow, so the mountains in SB will help the totals with around an inch in the hills. For us 1/2 to 3/4 is likely.
Rain is falling in Santa Ynez valley and north now or will be falling in our area by sunrise.
Rain will clear out in the afternoon and we will have dry weather through what appears to be most of Friday daytime hours.
Later in the afternoon and evening, the next system moves in…
This is going to be a good one…. strong south winds of 50 miles an hour in the hills and subtropical moisture spells a lot of rain. Up to 5 inches on south facing mountains.
Coastal areas and foothills on south face ( Santa Barbara ) will see 2.5 to 4 inches.
Everyone else, 1.5 to 3 inches. Rain rates are still on track of .5 to .75 per hour. With 1 inch per hour possible.
It is going to be a good storm, but debris flow is not likely…. in Montecito.
Freshly burned areas to the south could spell a different picture.
These areas need to be watched closely as this storm arrives. Rain will fall for a 6 to 12 hour period.
After Saturday’s rain, we will see dry weather Sunday day. Then showers Sunday night and Monday as the north flow drops over us.
The third system is not going to be a big rain maker. Especially compared to Saturday’s storm.
Ok you are up to date…. enjoy the rain, we are well ahead of average rainfall for the year.
This will only put us further ahead.
1/29/19 Weather
Good Thursday morning,
2 more days of January, then we welcome February.
For the record, February is normally our wettest month, and also our shortest month.
This all means we should have more rain days.
With that being said, we are going to start February with rain, it is also looking like we will see at least 3 different systems in the 7 day forecast.
We have 2 more dry days, then the tap opens.
Thursday or over night Wednesday the rain will begin. We will see light to moderate rainfall 1/4 to 1/2 inch. LA will see more 1/4 to 3/4.
This first system is weaker and will not pack a big punch.
Thursday we will clear in the afternoon and be dry through at least Friday afternoon.
The next stronger system arrives Friday afternoon to over night Saturday. Models are struggling with the timing, but not with the rain totals.
This system will drop lots of rain, because it will tap into subtropical moisture from Hawaii.
Yes, Pineapple Express.
We are looking at heavier rain with 2 to 3.5 inches at this time. Rain will be heavy at times. We could see 1/2 to 1 inch per hour at the peak of the rain.
Saturday should be wet through mid day at least. It all depends on when the rain actually starts.
Sunday during the day looks to be dry. Then Sunday night the next system. The weather service is not talking about how much with this one yet…
Bottom line, we are going to get lots of rain to start the month. Get ready for a strong storm over night Friday into Saturday.
Enjoy the sun while it lasts, you will not see much of it for awhile.
It will be back to playing in the mud. We need the rain, bring it on. I want to see Cachuma lake fill up…
Here is what it looks like from the sky.
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
1/28/19 Monday Weather
Good Monday morning,
What a fantastic weekend it was. I hope everyone was outside enjoying it. It is always amazing to see 80s in January.
Today is going to start with high clouds. Still a really nice day. Coastal areas will be in the low 70s, inland might hit 80.
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
We will have dry weather through Wednesday, then it all changes.
A low pressure system moves towards the central coast Wednesday night. Then, drops into our area Thursday morning.
We are looking for rain Thursday, starting over night Wednesday. This system looks to be weaker with around ¼ to ½ of rain.
Friday is looking dry, but another system rolls in Friday night, the timing is still up in the air because the models differ on timing.
This system looks to be stronger, with at least an inch of rain coming our way Friday night into Saturday.
We will need to watch this and look at it’s strength. If this turns into a cut-off low. Rain will likely be delayed, but it will be a stronger system with greater rainfall.
Regardless it will rain, Friday night into Saturday. Time will deliver more answers.
Sunday and into next week, we are looking at continued wet weather with more energy affecting us. Looks like February will start off like Jan did.
We need the rain, so bring it on.
Have a great day. It is a little warmer to start the day, with the high clouds.
Sunday Weather Update
Good Sunday morning,
Saturday sure was a great day with a high in SB of 81 degrees.
Sunday will be great also, but just 8 to 10 degrees cooler
Monday through Wednesday will be seasonable and dry.
Thursday, the changes begin. We are now looking at a cut-off low dropping into our area.
This will bring some rain to us, however, it will be on the lighter side.
Looks like Friday night there is another system that will affect us.
It is still way too early to know what this will bring, but it looks like we will be back in a wet pattern
Enjoy another great day.
Heading to the Park with Pearl!
1/27/19 Happy Saturday
Summer weather today, after a cold start to the morning.
Today will be summer like as the off shore event ramps up later this morning.
It is going to get windy in Santa Ana wind prone areas. Ventura south will see winds 30 to40 miles an hour and up-to 50 in the hills.
In Santa Barbara no wind just warm weather. We might even see some low 80s.
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
Sunday, still a great day, just mid 70s however. We will take that for January.
Monday through Thursday is dry, then a chance for rain begins Friday. Both long range models are calling for rain. This will be a quick hitter and will be over by Saturday. This is looking to be a moderate storm system.
In the mean time, it is cold to start the day, but temps will climb quickly. Looking to reach the 80 mark.
Enjoy a great weekend!
1/25/2019 Summer for the Weekend
Good Friday morning,
We are going to have a fantastic weekend, if you like sunshine and warm temps.
Highs today and Saturday will be in the upper 70s, with a few areas hitting the 80 degree mark. This is all due to high pressure and off shore winds over Southern California.
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
Slight cooling Sunday.
Monday we turn on shore, with highs in the upper 60s, but dry.
Tuesday, it looks like off shore will return once again. How windy still needs to be worked out. It could be a pretty strong Santa Ana event.
We will see dry weather through the week, but we are looking at rain next Saturday.
This is out there a ways, so it could change. Two long range models are calling for rain.
Enjoy a great weekend, it is going to be summer like.
Good Monday Morning
OK, here we go back to the routine. I get up at 3 am and prepare for the work day. Thank you all for the kind words of support.
It was tough last week. For those of you that did not know, my 8 month old grandson passed away.
We don’t think about how important family and friends are until something like this happens. I will think twice about family over work in the future.
Now, for the weather.
The wind is whipping in my backyard. Must be 40 to 50 mile an hour gusts from the northwest.
Yesterday, the rain made it as far south as Santa Ynez valley, however, rain totals really dropped off at SLO.
Areas to the north saw ½ inch of rain. Most areas here more of a trace.
https://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/precipMaps.php?group=cc&img=3
Today will be the coldest day of the week. There might even be some light snow showers in the north facing mountains.
Tuesday, the northwest winds turn to northeast as a Santa Ana wind event sets up. Winds will pick up in Ventura and south on Tuesday.
This will warm us up as the winds compress the air. Winds will be 30 miles an hour or so there. Here, we will be warmer and calm in SB.
We will be rain free through the weekend. Temps all week will remain well above normal. By Saturday it looks like 8 to 12 degrees above normal.
The warmest in the next 7 days. We are looking at upper 70s next weekend. It will be nice to see my backyard and clean it up.
Beyond that, we are not even talking about rain at this point.
Your ready for your work week, dress the Kids warm this morning, it is windy and chilly out there.
UPDATE:
Lynn just sent me this. Winds at 2:47 this morning were clocked at 82 miles an hour in the Montecito Hills.
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?wfo=lox&sid=MTIC1
There is going to be some damage out there from these.
Thanks Lynn
1/20/19 Weather
Good Sunday morning,
It looks like one more system will pass through the area tonight. This will begin to move in later today, from north to south.
Rain is just starting here in the Bay area. This system will be lighter. Rain will move north to south. Rain will arrive in SLO late this afternoon.
This system comes with north winds. The mountains generally block any rain in Santa Barbara with north winds.
I do not expect to see any rain for SB. It looks like we will see rain in Santa Ynez and north tonight.
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
Snow level will drop tonight to 3000 to 4000 feet. The grape vine might see a few inches of rain Monday morning.
Monday, the system clears out and we will have a sunny week.
Tuesday, a Santa Ana event starts up. This will warm up the temps all week. It looks like Thursday and Friday will be the warmest days.
We will all see 70s. It will be a nice warm up. Dry weather will prevail through the weekend.
Have a great Sunday, I will be back in Action Monday morning.
Sunrise: Fantastic start to the day, thanks Adam!
1/19/2019
Good morning,
Thought I would throw out a quick forecast, before a rough day.
Today we will see some high clouds as a weak ridge builds in.
Sunday, there is a storm system to the north. This will move down the coast Sunday night into Monday. At one time it was going to stay well to the north. Now it looks like it will sag further south and appears to be wetter.
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
It looks like rain can fall as far south as northern Santa Barbara county. Santa Ynez could see rain. For us, likely no rain, but we will need to watch this.
Monday through the rest of the week looks dry. No rain for a week.
The good news from all the rain is lake Cachuma has risen 5 ½ feet and is now at 35% up from 30%. Gibraltar is overflowing.
Also good news Is this is the first time water is flowing into Cachuma this early in the year. It has been since 2011 that water flowed into Cachuma this early.
Ok that’s it for the day.
Jack Martin
1/18/2019
Good Friday morning,
Great news from the weather front.
All the rain is now causing Gibraltar to overflow into lake Cachuma. This will now set up Cachuma to fill quicker.
Cachuma is at around 35% and will continue to rise the next few days.
We are also due for a dry spell. No rain for the next week.
We received good rain totals for the week. The mountains received great totals with up to 9 inches falling. Great news for lakes.
High pressure and off shore flow begins today. We will see some northwest winds tonight, then turn northeast Saturday.
Highs Saturday in SB will hit the 70 degree mark. It has been awhile since that has occurred.
Sunday a weak system moves in, but the rain will stay to the north.
Monday through next weekend is dry. Perfect time to empty all the debris basins that saw rocks fill them 1/3 of the way full.
Enjoy the sunshine, we have earned a break…
Thursday 1/17/2019
Good morning,
Late report, for good reasons. Will explain later, but it was a long day Wednesday with family emergency.
As far as the weather goes it was a wild night for you. We had the same in San Francisco. Rain poured here and SFO was closed.
For you it was also an active night. San marcos pass was the big winner with almost 6 inches of rain.
Today, the heavy rain will continue for the next few hours then begin to tapper off.
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/lox/scripts/getlocal.php?prod=LAXRRMSBA
Lighter rain will fall most of the day.
Here are the totals for the week.
Things clear out quickly Friday and we all look to have a week to recover.
Ok got to go, I will be back sunday.
Wednesday 1/16/2019
Good Wednesday morning,
This will be a quick one. Rain rates wound up sparing us yesterday. Where it was to be heavier, all the dynamics did not come together.
All in all, we still saw a good soaking. Everyone received 1 to 2 inches.
Today we will have some showers, but relatively dry through the day.
Tonight the storm will pick up again. This is going to give us a good soaking, but rainfall rates will be lower, .60 this is good news.
It will be much wetter with atmospheric river flowing over us. This will cause lots of rain.
1 to 3 inches coastal and 4 plus on south facing mountains. Yes that is us.
Montecito will see lots of rain, but rain rates should stay below the danger zone.
Rain most if the day Thursday, then clearing Friday.
Looks like the extended period into next week will be dry.
Get ready for another soaker, but the end is near.
Are You Ready for Wild Weather?
Tuesday morning, are you ready for some wild weather?
Yesterday the rain was not here. All the rain fell in LA and up north. They all received over an inch of rain. For us, 12 /100.
Not much, but that might be a good thing.
Today will be much different. It is going to get wild.
The next system is approaching now and rain is falling in north Goleta and Lompoc as I type.
This system and Thursday’s system will tap into subtropical moisture and the rain will come down hard.
Rain rates to day are expected at .75 to 1.25 inches per hour. That’s a lot of rain. It will be showery in nature, but rain can last until tonight.
After all is said and done, 2 to 4 inches is likely, and that’s only the first storm.
Today it looks like rain will start up this morning. It should be on the lighter side.
The heavy rain will arrive late morning and last into tonight.
Lots of wind also. It is going to be an E ride at Disneyland.
(I love it when I throw that into my forecast, all you youngsters. E rides were the scariest and best, back in the day.)
Wednesday day, a bit of a break, but Wednesday night it is game on again.
Wednesday nights and Thursday’s system looks to be bases loaded and a grand slam.
This will be the strongest of all the rain. With saturated earth, the creeks will flow. Heavy rain will arrive over night into Thursday.
Friday we dry out for the weekend, but an off shore wind event starts.
Yes Santa Ana wind. This is going to be a Ventura nightmare. Heavy winds will topple trees due to saturated soils.
SB will not be affected.
Beyond, a weak system late in the weekend. With rain staying north of us.
Ok, it is going to be a wild few days, Montecito will be tested.
Hopefully all will fair well and people there will be able to sleep through the night, not worrying about mud.
Time will tell this test.
Everyone be safe out there. It is going to be a interesting few days.
1/14/2019 Weather Update
Good Monday morning,
No report Sunday, because my email server took the day off and it was not allowing me to send the report.
Hopefully it will work now. This is the new G-suite email.
I have been up for a while, waiting to read the 3:30 am discussions. They are out now so here we go.
Today will be wet, if you are awake at 4:14 am like me, the rain is starting up now.
Today we will see rain through the day. It will rain into tonight. Rain rates will be a moderate .25 to .50 per hour. No threat to anyone.
We have good south flow, so Santa Barbara will see greater rainfall then other areas. You can see the low just spinning counter clockwise off shore.
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
Santa Barbara will see 1 to 1.5 inches of rain today over a 12 hour period. The mountains of SB will see up to 3 inches.
Other areas will see .50 to 1 inch with todays rain.
Tuesday, another round of rain. This will pull in some subtropical moisture. Rain rates with this system can be ½ to 1 inch per hour.
This will be a showery pattern. With spurts of rain. Another 1 to 2 inches of rain.
Wednesday will be a dry day, but rain will be back over night on Wednesday into Thursday.
Thursday will be the wettest of the systems in the past week. Also cause greater rain totals. Flooding is likely in areas.
All in all, it has been a very wet 7 day period. Friday through Thursday we will likely see 4 to 10 inches of rain.
The good news is, it looks like we will get a break from the rain starting Friday throughout the weekend.
It will be time for a break !!! Until then, lots of rain.
1/13/2019 Weather
Good Sunday morning,
Friday night into early Saturday morning was Active with a few rounds of heavy rain. Rain totals were right in line with the forecast. We received 1 to 2 inches.
Today will be dry, we have one more day to prepare for a rainy week.
Rain will hold off until the over night hours. This system is also looking very juicy.
Rain rates to start will be within thresholds. So no fear in Montecito over night into Monday. Rainfall totals however are on the increase, with 1 to 2 inches coastal and 3 inches in the mountains through Monday. Winds in the mountains are going to be strong. Southeast winds will start up this evening. A winter weather watch is likely with snow levels at 4500 to 5000 feet.
Monday will be wet most of the day. With a rain period of 12 hours, then turn to showers.
Tuesday will be showery, with some pockets of heavy rain. Rain per hour will be higher with 1/2 to 1 inch per hour. This will have to be monitored.
Wednesday, we are waiting for the arrival of the next system. This one is looking to be the strongest. Exact details are still not clear, but it looks like a Wednesday night into Thursday storm.
All in all, we are expecting to see another 3 to 8 inches of rain through Thursday.
Santa Barbara will see the higher total due to the south facing mountains.
That’s a boat load … as always, stay tuned, more to come…
Read this graphic from the weather service, scroll to the discussions and read that.
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?wfo=lox&afos=laxqpslox
Enjoys a dry Sunday.
Take the doggy to the park, it is going to be a wet period next week.
1/12/2019
Good Saturday morning,
As I woke up this morning, the rain is coming down hard at 4:30 am. I missed the rain last night, as I was in La La land.
Rain totals at this point are not that high with 1 to 2 inches in most areas, however, the event is not over.
We have a series of storms lined up in the pacific, that will make our weather very interesting through Thursday.
Take a look. Seeing is believing:
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
Today it looks like the rain might linger a little longer into the noon hour here.
The afternoon will be mostly dry with some showers possible.
Tonight and now through most of Sunday should be dry, before the next system comes in Monday early or over night Sunday.
This will bring a longer period of rain, but the rain rates will not be as high.
This system yesterday was going to be more northerly, but now it looks like it will stall over us, and bring a longer period of rain.
We will see some breaks in the rain Tuesday, but these will be short.
There are chances of rain through Thursday.
Wednesday event is still supposed to be a good one, but some models are suggesting it might stall into Thursday.
Any way you look at it, we will be wet through Thursday.
The good news is Friday and through the weekend look to be dry and rain free…
January has really started out to be quite wet with a lot more rain to come.
It would not surprise me if we see 10 plus inches this month. One more foot note, February is normally our wettest month.
We will have to see how it all plays out, but we are off to a good start….
We have not really talked much about El Niño, but it is about January and February with heavier rain bringing up subtropical moisture.
That is what is happening.
Enjoy the rain, we need it…. let it fill lake cachuma ..
1/11/2019
Good Friday morning,
Are you ready for some rain? Well it is around 12 hours away.
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
This morning you will wake up to fog or high clouds. There are clouds streaming in from the south. This will do nothing more then give us some cloud cover.
The low is moving in later today, with rain chances beginning of the central coast this afternoon.
Rain in our area will hold off till around 6 pm.
This system is packed with lots of energy. Combined with cold air, negative tilt and subtropical moisture it is going to be pretty juicy.
There might even be some thunder storms with this. They are supposed to stay off shore, but will likely bring downpours at times.
The peak rain times are 9 pm to 2 am for Santa Barbara Area, and midnight to 6 am in the south peak.
Rainfall rates per hour will be 1/2 to 3/4 of an inch per hour. If a thunder storm develops, rates could be higher.
Rain will end mid morning north to south. Everyone should be rain free by the afternoon.
Sunday looks to be dry, but another system approaches Sunday afternoon. This is looking like a northern storm, with light rain at best.
Monday through Thursday is only advertised to be wet. Models are struggling with when the rain will hit.
There are a series of systems coming our way. They used the words “A dangerous 12 hour period of rain may occur during that time.”
Best bet is Wednesday at this point, but models are still all over the board.
Bottom line, we will get ready for Friday night, then see what the days beyond bring us.
Rainfall totals are still looking like 2 to 3 inches with the first system in our area. 1 to 2 south of us.
The highest rainfall will be from Refugio to Ojai. It does look like some flooding is likely, but Montecito and Ventura burn areas should handle this.
It is the freshly burned areas to the south that will be challenged.
If anything changes, I will update later in the day. This will be fairly a quick storm, but will pack some punch.
Have a nice day!
1/10/19 Weather Update
Good Thursday morning,
Yesterday’s rain was advertised to be on the lighter side and it was.
Where it looked stronger yesterday as it rounded point conception, it weakened.
Bottom line, we saw only 1/10 of an inch in SB.
Moving forward, there is a lot of Action in the Pacific. We will have 2 dry days before we will have a real test.
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
Today, look for a nice sunny day with highs in the 60s. The best day of the week.
Friday changes begin, some clouds will begin to fill in from the south and a low drops in from the north.
This will be all the ingredients we need to have quite a rain.
Southern subtropical moisture will combine with a low. These 2 will pump in the moisture for a 12 hour period.
The target area is from Refugio to Ojai. Guess who is right in the middle.
Yes, Montecito and Santa Barbara. Rain will begin late on Friday. Likely Friday evening.
The central coast and Santa Ynez might see rain as early as the afternoon, but it will start out on the lighter side.
As we get into Friday night from 6pm to 6am Saturday, the action occurs.
This will bring us significant rain. Rain rates can be as high as .75 of an inch per hour.
Rain totals will be 1.5 to 2.5 inches. South facing areas could see a lot more.
FYI if you did not know, our mountains are south facing.
Rain will end Saturday morning. We will have 2 dry days.
This will be followed by rain chance during the period of Sunday night till Thursday.
Models do not have a good handle on how much and when, but we will likely see rain on and off through most of next week.
Wednesday’s system is still on track to be significant.
Ok, you are ready for the next system. I am sure everyone in Montecito will be reading this and will be concerned.
So at this point, it looks like creeks should be able to contain the rainfall.
There will be some minor flooding, but nothing like 1/9/2018.
If anything would change in the next 24 hours, you will hear it from me.
Enjoy the sunshine!
1/9/2019 Weather Report
Good Wednesday morning,
We had 1 day of dry weather yesterday, now it looks like we will see more rain today.
The next low that will affect our weather is starting to move into northern SLO.
You can see it on the satellite:
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
Where this system was going to keep most of the rain to the north, that is not the case this morning. It does now look like Santa Barbara and Ventura will get a better dose of the rain.
Rain will drop north to south this morning with rain arriving late morning in Santa Ynez and early afternoon to Santa Barbara.
Yesterday the rain was only going to be 1/10 of an inch for Santa Barbara and Ventura.
Now it looks like 1/4 to 1/3 will be more in line. As you go north, the rain total rises. SLO will see 1/2 to an inch. 2 inches in northern SLO.
Rain will end tonight, then clearing will persist Thursday through Friday afternoon.
Highs will be in the mid to upper 60s.
Friday night, more rain. This one will be juicy, the low has a nice negative tilt to it and will pull up some sub tropical moisture.
If you like rain, a negative tilt is your game.
This system will produce around 1 to 2 inches of rain. This system can also bring heavier rain to all locations.
Possibly in excess of 1/2 inch per hour. To top it off Santa Barbara and the mountains will see the greatest rain fall with likely 2 inches or more.
Saturday looks dry, but cooler.
Sunday and now all the way through Thursday of next week looks wet.
System after system will affect us with rain on and off through the week.
Long range models show Wednesday of next weeks system could produce heavy rain.
As always, this is way out there and things could change. Bottom line we are in a wet pattern, with no end in sight.
Enjoy the rain today, it will not cause any issues.
Stay tuned, more fun to come.
Oh, I almost forgot. Today is 1/9/2019.
One year ago was the crazy mud flow. We never want to repeat that again.
Montecito has come a long ways in a year, with the exception of the bridges.
There are 3 out still, as I count. I have no idea what is taking so long to get them back in service.
1/8/019 Weather
Good Tuesday morning,
The rain is over for now, but rain totals were impressive.
Between the 2 storms we saw 3 to 4 inches of rain. That’s a good start to January.
The satellite is still quite active with the next system spinning off the coast.
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
This system will move in on Wednesday. This will be more of a Northern California storm.
The Bay Area and sierra mountains will get hammered with more rain and snow.
For us, the rain will be much lighter. Looks like SLO will see 1/2 to an inch, but as it drops south, the rain totals drop way off.
Santa Ynez 1/4 to 1/2 Santa Barbara to Ventura 1/10 only. LA will see no rain.
Thursday and Friday will be dry days, but as evening arrives, so does the rain.
This is going to be a cold storm, with snow levels very low.
The air is also unstable and we will see heavier rain overnight into Saturday morning.
After rain Saturday morning, we will dry out for Saturday, then possible into Sunday.
There is another system that will move in Sunday. There is still uncertainty to the strength and movement of this one.
Rain could be heavier or lighter depending on the track. We will just need to wait and see.
Bottom line, it is going to be a wet period, with breaks between storms.
Enjoy the fun, I will be back at you Wednesday morning.
1/7/2019
Problems with cox mail this morning… took a while to get this out.
Good Monday morning,
If you want wet, you have it. The rain gods have not disappointed us.
Where the first system produced heavy rain for a brief period, this one is producing light to moderate rain over a longer period of time.
To top it off, we have had good south winds that ring out the rain over Santa Barbara. Since Friday we have seen 2.5 inches to almost 4 inches in our area with more to come.
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
Looks like we will se rain into the afternoon, with another 1/2 to 3/4 of an inch to fall.
Remember what I was saying about the rain needing to saturate the silos before we have good run off? Well that is happening now.
We will get a day rain free on Tuesday then rain is back on Wednesday. The amount of rain in our area is still not clear for Wednesday, but we will see some. Most likely Wednesday afternoon or evening. This system will stay a little more to the north, so LA might not see any rain from this one.
Thursday another break with no rain. Then Friday day should be dry also.
Friday night the rain returns. Aa a matter of fact, the entire weekend looks wet. With rain through Sunday. Where we are still a ways away from next weekends systems. The models continue to advertise 2 strong storms. These 2 will test the burn areas to the south if they come to fact. Montecito, don’t worry at this point. As it gets closer to the event, we will know more. Our 1 year anniversary of the mud flow is Wednesday of this week. Not really one we want to relive, but after a year of green growth and plant life we are way better off.
Enjoy the rain….
We need it… Cachuma is at 30%
1/6/2019
Good Sunday morning,
The rain arrived right on time yesterday, and it came down hard for a short period of time.
Fairly impressive totals for a 3 hour period of rain. All SB areas saw from .99 to 1.30 inches of rain.
https://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/images/countyPrecipMaps/santabarbara_24HRprecip.png
We are looking to be in a wet pattern for the next week, with rain every other day.
Today will be relatively dry, but rain will start up again this evening and drop another round of rain over us, into Monday morning.
With this system we are expecting another 1/2 to 1 inch of rain. Snow level will jump to around 6500 feet.
Monday some morning showers, but it will clear out by noon.
Tuesday will be dry, but late in the day we are expecting another storm Tuesday night into Wednesday.
This is weaker and will not produce a lot of rain. Maybe 1/4 to 1/3 of a inch.
Thursday, a weak ridge pops up, this will keep us dry into Friday day.
Then Friday night, into and through the weekend, a double barreled low will affect our area.
Just the name makes you think this will be a real rain maker. Unfortunately it is just too far out there to call. Yet !
However, we will need to keep a strong eye on this, because if it does stay as a strong system we will see rainfall Friday night through Sunday.
With only a short break on Saturday afternoon, no rain fall predictions at this point, but welcome to the rainy season.
Enjoy it, we need the rain….
The good news is the ground is not saturated at this point, so run off has been light in creeks.
We will need to see how future systems saturate the ground, then run off will be greater.
Yesterday’s storm was intense, but the ground absorbed most of the rain.
As far as temps go, it will be cool days with most areas staying in the upper 50s for highs.
Lows will be in the 30s and 40s.
Here are the rain fall totals from yesterday.
Good Saturday Morning 1/5/19
Good news for the Saturday plans.
The storm system was going to hit earlier in the day, now looks to hold off until Saturday mid afternoon.
The system is not weakening, just spinning slower south. A matter of fact, this is a defined nice looking low pressure system:
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
You can also see the subtropical moisture being sucked up from the South. This will enhance the rain as it gets closer to us.
You will also feel the south winds, which will blow at 20 to 30 miles an hour as the rain gets closer.
Where the rain appears now to start up around 3pm in SB. The heaviest rain will come from 6 to 10 PM.
Looks like SB will see around 1 inch and south facing foothills and mountain 2 inches. South .5 to an inch.
All resorts will see snow, with snow levels starting at 4500 feet then rising to 5000 feet.
Rain will be over tonight. Then Sunday will be a cool day with highs under the 60 degree mark.
Sunday night, there will be another round of rain into Monday morning.
Looks like dry Monday and Tuesday, then another chance for rain Wednesday.
Models are backing off on this one. They are now saying the rain will not get any further south than Santa Barbara.
This is still too far out to know.
Speaking of further out, they are talking about another system on Friday of next week.
Chatter is, this might be quite a strong storm, but don’t panic it is too far out at this point to even think about it.
In the mean time, get the beach walk in today. Take the dog to the park.
It looks like you have most of the daylight hours before the rain hits.
Enjoy the rain, it has been a month now. We need it, and it looks like we are getting into a wet pattern.
For all the surfers your going to have a party today. High surf from the central coast to LA, 6 to 12 feet in areas
Have a nice weekend!
Friday 1/4/19 Rain Forecast
Good Friday morning,
Another chilly start to the day. Today will be the last nice day before rain starts up on Saturday morning.
The cold low will move in over night with snow levels at 4,500 feet. Rain will start north to south.
The central coast will see rain right around dawn on Saturday.
It will drop south and be raining in Santa Barbara by late morning. Then in Ventura and south shortly after.
It does look like the low will pull up the subtropical jet in the afternoon. This will enhance the rainfall and create heavier rain.
The warmer air, however, will raise the snow level to 5,500 feet.
Rain rates should stay under a 1/2 inch per hour in most areas.
Totals are still about the same as it has been. .50 to an inch coastal. 1 to 2, mountains and valleys.
South facing mountains will see the most. Here on the ground I expect an inch of rain, with double in the hills.
There is a chance of thunderstorms later in the afternoon. This could cause heavier rain.
Rain turns to showers after a 3 to 6 hour period.
Rain leaves on Sunday and we will see cool days through next week.
Another system for late Tuesday. We will watch the track and strength as the weekend moves on.
It looks like we will see at least 2 storms back to back.
Enjoy the rain, we need it. It has been over a month.
Have a great weekend.
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
Good Thursday Morning 1/3/19
Are you as confused on what day it is, as I am? Having days off in the middle of the week is really messing with my brain.
For Thursday, we are expecting more of the same. Another cold start to the morning.
If you are waking up in the Santa Ynez valley, it is a frosty 30 degrees.
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.phplon=-120.18768310546874&lat=34.61851721379668#.XC4UNRqIafA
In Santa Barbara, 45 degrees. The day time sun will heat us up a little today with highs in the low 60s.
Friday will also be a nice day, with even a little more warm up. Not as cold over night and maybe even the mid 60s.
Saturday and into the weekend, we will see rain…. the rain will be strongest in SLO and Santa Barbara counties.
This will also be a fairly cold storm, with snow levels at 4,500 feet. This will show white stuff in the Santa Ynez mountains.
The timing is still in question, but sometime during the day on Saturday is likely.
Rain will be decent, with most areas seeing around an inch of rain. Mountains upward to 2 inches.
Saturday night looks like we might even have some thunder storms in SLO and SB areas.
Sunday some showers, then drying out.
This system is still a moving target, but trends are getting wetter as the model runs get closer to the event.
South facing mountains like SB might see high rainfall totals .
Rate rates will stay moderate at 1/4 to 1/3 inch per hour. All fine for burn areas.
Next week is looking to be dry for maybe 2 days, then another system Tuesday or Wednesday.
This system is looking to tap into the subtropical jet. If that happens, expect heavier rain and higher totals.
Time will tell.
In the mean time, it looks like the wet season has arrived. Get ready for some rain.
More on Friday morning.
January 2nd, 2019
The holidays are over, and it is time to make 2019 a productive year.
The weather during the holiday has been cold, but dry.
I feel like I have been singing the same record for the past 2 weeks.
We will have 2 more days of the same. Cooler days and colder nights, then it all begins to change.
Friday will be transition day, then we open the door for a series of storms.
The first will arrive Saturday, which is 900 miles north west of Hawaii. This will arrive as a cut -off low.
We have not talked about this type of storm in awhile, but they are not real predictable on timing and strength.
If sub tropical is pulled into the picture, the rainfall is enhanced.
At this point, the models are still all over the map.
From 2/10 to 2 inches. Between you and I, cut-off lows drop a lot of rain or very little.
I think rain totals will begin to climb in the next few days, and 1 to 2 inches is more likely.
Behind that, there is at least 1 more storm for next week. This storm is suppose to be stronger then the first.
So it looks like we will get into a wet pattern:
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
For what it is worth, predictions for January rain fall is greater then normal. Expect around 6 inches for the month.
We will see how it all develops.
More to come, and happy New Year.
Happy New Year
Good January 1st 2019,
Yes, another new year has arrived. I hope everyone enjoyed themselves last night.
It was a fun night with friends and I made it to 10pm. A mile stone for me.
The weather to start the year is interesting. Locally we have cold and wind.
Nationally, the East coast and Pacific Northwest are wet. Also look at the subtropical jet over the Baja.
This is looking to affect our weather this weekend:
https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/national/satellite
In the mean time, cold everywhere. Temps are dipping into the 20s in all valley areas the next 2 nights.
Cover those water lines if they are not insulated.
From Ventura to Pasadena you are dealing with cold and wind.
Wind is calm now, but will pick up at sunrise and tonight.
Winds will vary depending on your location, but 20 to 30 miles an hour is likely with gusts to 40.
The mountains can see up to 60 miles an hour gusts.
This will mark a interesting morning in Pasadena and parade route.
Winds will lay down a little for game time, but everyone will know they are there.
The Ohio State folks will enjoy the tailgate in there winter parkas, and you will need it today.
It is not going to be summer like today.
Ok, moving it on.
Wednesday, winds start to go away but still cold.
Thursday and Friday, nice days and warmer.
Saturday, it all begins to change. We are looking at rain sometime Saturday into or through Sunday.
All 3 models differ on the solution and timing at this point.
We will wait a day or so, before we make a call on exactly when and how much.
Bottom line it is going to rain sometime this weekend. If the subtropical jet moves our way we will see more rain.
In the mean time, enjoy the first day of 2019.
Watch football and take your dog to the beach. That will be my routine.
Happy new year!