1/31/17 Tuesday Update
Good Tuesday Morning,
First of all, congrats to Ventura, you made the national news for being the warmest place in the United States yesterday at 82 degrees.
Today will continue the great weather and warmth. This afternoon winds will turn onshore as the high pressure moves east.
Wednesday the high clouds will begin to move in as our next front approaches.
Here it is spinning out over the Pacific, moving ever so slowly west.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
This will bring rain from north to south overnight Wednesday into Thursday. It does look like this system is slowing down, so rain for SB might hold off until mid-morning on Thursday. Winds will also shift to the south ahead of the front. This always indicates rain is right behind.
Rain will be mainly Santa Barbara and to the north Thursday. However Thursday night and Friday it will work its way into Ventura and Los Angeles. This is not a heavy rain event. We will see light to moderate rain, although because it is moving slowly we could actually see some fair rain totals. 1/2 to an inch in the hills of SB.
Looks like a dry weekend, then the next rain chance is Sunday night into Monday. As 2 models agree on rain out of this system at this point.
Enjoy the last warm day out there. We all shift back to normal temps on Wednesday.
Now get out there and win the day
New Work Week 1/30/2017
Good Monday morning,
I hope everyone enjoyed a great weekend. Saturday was warm and Sunday was even better. If you liked the weather the past 2 days, then you don’t want to miss this one.
Today will be the warmest day, before the high breaks down and changes start.
Where January started with being one of the wettest months in a long time. It will end with sunshine and warm days. (Today and Tuesday)
High pressure breaks down Wednesday with rain pushing into SLO around midnight. It should greet us, before dawn on Thursday. Looks like rain Thursday and Thursday night. Showers possible Friday. This will not be a big rain maker. Possibly in the 1/2 inch range. With double in the mountains.This will hit SLO and Santa Barbara counties better, then weaken as it moves south on Thursday . All areas should see rain Thursday night.
Friday we begin to dry out, and it looks like another nice weekend.
Monday will bring the next chance of rain…
Enjoy the great weather today
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
1/24/17 Dry Weather For The Next Week
Good Tuesday morning,
What a wild last 5 days in my life. I thought we would start with the rain totals over the last 5 days. They are very impressive.
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/lox/scripts/getlocal.php?prod=LAXRRMSBA
I have not compiled the totals for the month of Jan, but it is quite positive.
A break will be a good thing, but not too long we hope. We still need to fill lake Cachuma , which is growing slowly. The good news is Gibraltar is at 83% and once it is full all the extra water goes into Cachuma.
Today -There is still a slight chance of showers, but they should be confined to the mountains. There is a definite chill in the air this morning.
Wednesday – Very cold day, freezing in the valley.
Thursday – Sunny and cold.
Friday – An inside slider. This will not bring rain, only winds. We will have a Santa Anna wind event Friday morning in the usual areas, Ventura and south.
Saturday – Sunny and warmer. Off shore flow. We will actually see normal temps.
Sunday – A little warmer yet. It will be a nice dry, sunny weekend. The first one in a while.
Monday – The warmest day in some time….
Beyond that, stay tuned… enjoy the clear skies and sunshine. It is going to be pretty out there, after all the rains in the past 5 days. Have a great Day!
– Jack
1/19/17 Sunny and Pretty Out There This Morning
The rain was great again Wednesday. Totals were right inline as predicted. SB got .89inches, the pass got 1.3 inches and for the most part, everyone saw about an inch of rain.
http://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/precipMaps.php?group=sv&img=3
We will dry out for the day only. System #2 is right on the heels
1/18/17 Are You Ready For Some Excitement?!
Ok, here we go. It is going to be a 1,2,3 punch. Each rain system is going to get stronger as the week goes on. We are going to have fun watching levels at Cachuma finally rise for the first time since 2011.
When will the rain start today?
Well if you look at the satellite radar you can see the first sign of rain moving into the north part of the forecast area.
Rain will stay away from our area for most of the day. Just expect cloudy skies during the day. Rain will start around 4 pm in SLO and drop south.
Santa Ynez should see rain around 5 pm and Santa Barbara around 6. Rain will drop to the south each few hours arriving in LA late tonight. Everyone will see 3 to 5 hours of steady rain, moderate to heavy at times.
This will turn to showers over night with good totals of 3/4 to 1 1/2 coastal and 1 to 3 inches mountains.
Thursday looks like a dry day. You will be able to get out and mop up the mess, before the next one arrives early Friday morning. Santa Barbara will see rain by dawn, and it will be a very wet day.
Showers will exist into Saturday morning, but Saturday again should be a dry day. Another good rainfall with this one. It will bring us more totals than the first system.
System #3 – This one….. is going to be the beast.
It will arrive sometime Sunday morning into the Afternoon. After really wet two previous storms, this is going to rain straight into all our reservoirs. This will be the strongest, and last longer than the previous 2. Expect 1.5 to 3 inches coastal and 5 inches in the hills. This one has great south flow, so Santa Barbara will get hammered much harder than other locations.
Monday maybe some left over showers. Tuesday looks to be sunny.
We are going to get significant rainfall from these systems. Thank you to the man upstairs. We need it, and a special thank you to the city officials for getting the desalination plant on line.
They are now 2 for 2 in drought years. Have fun and enjoy the ride.
I guess I will be working all weekend.
1/17/17 Wow
Ok this is the wow factor for rain. It is looking like all the models are falling into place for quite a wet period, with 3 storms aimed at us over the next 5 days.
First Storm – 1/2 to 1in coastal, 1 to 3 mountains
Second storm – 1 to 2in coastal, 2 to 4 mountains
Third storm – 1 1/2 to 3in coastal, Up to 5 inches mountains
Quick forecast this morning, because it is a busy day…
First system arrives Wednesday at 4 pm to central coast and SB later in the night, and LA for the commute.
Rain will linger into Thursday, with clearing in the afternoon. A quick break, before storm 2 arrives Friday morning. This one will last a little longer and bring showers into Saturday.
Another short break, before the biggest one arrives Sunday night into Monday. This will pack a punch or a knock down with heavy rain and snows…
All in all we could see up to 5 inches coastal and 10 mountains with these 3 storms combined.
Thank you, Desalination plant.
Every time we get it up and running we break the drought. It is like bringing your umbrella or not …….If any city decision makers are out there, please do not scrap this again.. get it up and producing…
Enjoy the rain it is going to be another active period, and amen for that….. Ok, off to the races. See you on the streets, Jack is back in Action with 3 hours of sleep
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
1/11/17 Wednesday Rain
Good morning,
Another day of rain. Its Looking pretty good out there. Santa Barbara has received .95inches in the past 24 hours and the pass 1.6 inches. Rain will turn into showers today.
Tonight storm 2 arrives. It looks like it will be more of a showery system, and come with much lower snow levels. Snow levels will drop to 3000 feet with the Thursday system.
Showers and rain will continue through the day Thursday. The weekend and the first half of the work week will be clear.
We will finally get a chance to dry out. The next system is possible on Wednesday of next week. We are still not sure of the track at this point.
Have a great day.
1/6/17 Love The Rain
If you love the rain, you are going to like this forecast. As we wake up and the light comes. You will see Sun. Soak it up, because there is not much in our forecast for the next week. Right now we have 2, likely 3 additional systems in the next 6 days.
If you look at the satellite picture you can see the Pineapple Express heading our way again.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
This has made the central coast quite wet over the last storm. It looks like this will have a direct hit again with the heavier rains, however everyone will get rain.
Now the forecast.
Today – Sunny and nice
Tonight – Rain developing over night
Saturday – Rain for all
Sunday – Warm high around 70 with sunshine south of point conception. As a weak ridge builds in. The central coast however will continue with rain
Monday – Rain again. A cold low will drop down from the north and pump in the subtropical moisture. This will bring 3 to 6 hours of heavy rain. (This will be a good one for SB with south winds)
Tuesday – Sunny and nice
Wednesday into Thursday – More rain. This one is still too far out to call, but models are leaning to the rain likely again.
Ok, that’s it for the day. Enjoy the sun, it will be few and far between for the next week. Got to love starting the New Year with rain in the forecast every other day.
Have a great weekend, I hope I make it to my destination. I have to travel though Charlotte NC, then to St Marteen. They are predicting snow in Charlotte, Saturday morning when I land. Hope I can get out of there
1/4/17 Rain Today
Ugh computer models … it is a love hate relationship. They are great when they are right, and frustrating when they flip flop.
Let’s start with what we know for sure.
Rain is in the forecast for at least the next 24 hours. It has been raining north of us for some time. Rocky Butte Mountain has received 3 inches in the last 12 hours, and should double that today.
Http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-ft.HTML
Rain will start up for us by 10am or there about. Then spread to the south. Heaviest rain will be over SLO and Santa Barbara counties. Rain totals will drop off the further south you go. It should be a pretty good rain with coastal areas seeing around an inch.
Mountains will be well above that… some mountains like Rocky Butte will see up to 6 inches. Rain tapers into Thursday.
Friday is and has always been dry…..
Now the models differ on timing and insensitivity of the rains. It does look like Saturday will be a dry day with just increasing clouds.
Saturday night the rain starts to the north. One model suggests a huge plum of moisture over SLO.
Now this is also where the models differ. They are now suggestion that the next system, once advertised as the big one might just be an average rain….
We will wait and see what really does happen… at this point rain should start for us Sunday into Monday.
Stay tuned… more to come
Enjoy the rain!
1/3/17 Interesting Weather Ahead
Good morning from weather headquarters,
I have been reading and studying the forecast for a number of days now. I have decided at this point, we have no good idea on the bullseye of the heaviest rain or how long it will really last. Bottom line it will pour, somewhere between Monterey and LA. Really I think it will hit all areas at some point. The issue is the computer use small stations over the pacific and then, tries to track the speed and area the systems will move. This is not easy to pinpoint until it gets closer.
What we do know is the first round of rain will be heaviest north of us. Looks like Paso and SLO will get the bulk of the rain through Wednesday. They are looking at over an inch along the coast and up to 5 inches in the mountains.
Rain will sag south as soon as tonight. Santa Barbara will likely get some, but the heavier rain will hold off until later Wednesday.
Now the issue is how long it will rain. Thursday night is likely, and then we will be dry for Friday.
The tricky part is the weekend storm. Models still struggle with exactly where the bullseye will be. Where it does the heaviest rain will be in the surrounding area.
What it looks like we will have a very wet pattern Saturday into Monday.
Heaviest rain starting north to south, arriving in SB Saturday night.
This will have good south flow, meaning SB will get hammered. Depending on how long it hangs over us. This will tell us how much rain we will see.
Bottom line, it will be a rainy week with clouds most of the time. Rain will be heavy at times.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
Hang in there, the computers will get this right at some point with in the next few days.
Needless to say, it will be good for drought stricken California.