2/29/24
Good Thursday morning,
The excitement of the day is it is a leap year. All baby’s born today will have a true birthday every 4 years. I am sure we will hear about this on the news tonight.
Today as you can see, it is all about fog and low clouds. Some drizzle in areas, but damp for all.
https://www.weather.gov/lox/SatelliteViewer
Today a much cooler day with marine layer at 3000 feet. It will be dry today, but light rain for some tonight.
Friday morning, rain to the north and drizzle here. Rain will move in Friday late morning to early afternoon here. This is not a big rain makers. To start 1/10 to 1/4 inches through Friday. Friday night and Saturday more rain, but spotty. It will also be windy at times.
This is a cold storm with snow levels Friday night at 5000 feet lowering to 4000 feet Saturday. This may affect the grapevine I-5 traffic.
Rain will be moderate and showery Saturday with the greatest totals in SLO with up to an inch of rain. In Santa Barbara .5 to 1 inch in total is likely. Some foothills and mountains 1 to 2 inches.
Rain will be over Sunday morning, with windy and cold conditions.
Drier weather into Tuesday now, then rain chances come back Tuesday night into Wednesday. The next system looks to affect northern areas more than us on Wednesday.
In the meantime, more rain starting Friday and Saturday. But it will not be like other systems. There is no subtropical support with this one only cold air. This will produce winds and mountain snows.
For the weekend you will not be working on your sun tan. It might be a good weekend to clean your garage or closet 🤔🤣.
Regardless, we take what we get, March the first is Friday and daylight savings starts in 10 days 👍👍
Jack Martin
2/28/24
Good Wednesday morning,
It will be a great spring like day with sunny skies and highs close to 70 degrees.
Enjoy it while it lasts, because we turn back to winter weather for the later part of the week.
Thursday the off shore flow changes to onshore and fog and drizzle is likely Thursday morning.
Thursday night and Friday the next system arrives. It does look like rain on Friday now. Not a lot to start, but .15 is likely Friday.
Friday night and Saturday rain continues with total accumulation of .33 to 1 inch.
This is a cold storm with snow levels starting at 5000 feet and dropping much lower by Sunday.
Sunday maybe a few showers, windy and cold. Certainly not the weekend we had last weekend
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=29.5,-114.7,4z
Sunday and Monday will be dry, but a weak system rolls in Tuesday. Not a lot of rain and central coast will see some, but we will have to see if it gets this far south.
In the mean time, enjoy a great day. Thursday cooler with onshore flow fog and drizzle.
Friday light rain and rain (showery) Friday night and Saturday. 8 to 10 inches of snow with wind in the mountains.
Working quick this morning, got to get to Action 👍
Jack Martin
2/26/24
Good Monday morning,
High clouds and a little rain this afternoon is the forecast for the day. This morning we are expecting dry conditions with some light rain starting around 3pm today into tonight. This is thanks to a cut-off low that has been spinning in the pacific for days. This will drift towards us today and bring 1/10 to 1/4 of an inch. Just enough to dampen the streets. https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=27.1,-109.1,4z/date=2024-02-26,05:00,-8
Tuesday morning the rain is over and dry conditions through Thursday with another system arriving some time Friday and Saturday. This is colder and mountain snows are likely. Rain wise. .75 to 1 1/2 coastal and 1 to 3 inches in the mountains. A good system, but not crazy. Sunday will be wind and cold. Highs will only be around 60.
Wednesday should be the warmest day of the week with highs near 70s.
It was truly a great weekend in the Santa Ynez Valley.
Enjoy the little rain, then dry until Friday sometime. February is coming to a close and hopefully spring is right around the corner. Daylight savings starts March 10th and we will then see daylight into the 7pm hour.
Have a great week, bring an umbrella today if you melt with light rain 😃
Jack Martin
2/25/24
Good Sunday morning,
What a fantastic Saturday it was, highs were in the mid-70s with sunshine for all.
It was great to be at Sunstone winery tasting wine with my daughters and grandkids.
If you have not been to Sunstone lately, they have upgraded the outdoor area, and it was packed. It is worth a trip to Santa Ynez.
Today will be cooler than Saturday highs in the mid to upper 60s with some high clouds overhead.
Monday will be cloudy with the system in the pacific pushing into the area Monday afternoon and some rain arriving late in the day and overnight.
This system however is quite weak with most areas only seeing 1/10 to ¼ inch of rain. The rain is over by Tuesday morning, and we will have 4 days of dry weather.
Friday afternoon into Friday night it looks like more rain will be back in the forecast. This will be a colder system and we will see good rainfall totals again.
Preliminary rain totals will be .75 to 1 ½ inches coastal and 1 to 3 inches in the mountains. Snow levels will be as low as 2500 feet with this system.
I hope everyone has a great Sunday. My plan is to go to the river this morning and take some photos of the water running from the mountains and Lake Cachuma.
Enjoy your Sunday.
Jack Martin
2/23/24
Good Friday morning,
Warming trend today through the weekend is the focus of the forecast.
Highs will be In low 70s for most coastal and valley location with some high clouds streaming over us today. Overall we will see a great weekend.
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=22.7,-109.6,4z
As you can see on the zoom satellite a low pressure system is out in the pacific 1000 miles west of SF. This will do nothing until Sunday evening, then it will move towards us. This appears to be weakening, rainfall Monday will likely be less and in the 1/10 to 1/2 range and it should be over by dawn Tuesday. This will not produce a lot of rain and that’s great news. We have more than a years worth as it is, and we still have 6 months left on our rain season.
With all the rain of late, we have not talked much about the day light. It is staying light now into the 6 pm hour and starting to bring daylight in the 6am hour. In late March we will see 12 hour days of daylight again and better yet, daylight savings returns on March 10th, just a few more weekends away 👏 .
Sunrise is now 6:35 am and sunset 5:49pm.
The equinox is March 19th and summer solstice June 20th.
Yes it is coming fast, and it can not be soon enough. I am ready for sunny days and warmth again, I am over the winter weather.
Lake Naciemento is at 85% now and all the other reservoirs 100%. T
The Santa Ynez river is a waterway, flowing heavy from the mountains and the dam releasing water. It is a site to see.
Santa Barbara has 198% of normal rainfall for the year and 136% above normal for the entire year and it is still February. Now that’s crazy ….
Enjoy the sunshine, I am going to Santa Ynez for the weekend and look at all the green hills and see the river flowing strong and maybe go to Sunstone for a little wine in the sunshine Saturday afternoon 😁
Enjoy your weekend, I will send some photos from the valley 👍
Jack Martin
2/22/24
Good Thursday morning,
High pressure and off shore winds, with warmer temps is the forecast through the weekend.
Take a look at zoom earth and you will see our next weather system that is being held off by high pressure over us. This is just staying well out in the pacific for now and even moving more westerly for now
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=37.4,-107.7,4z
High pressure and warmer weather is the story through the period through Sunday.
The next weather system should roll in sometime Monday into Tuesday. Timing is still not clear or where it will track. For now it looks like 1/2 to 1 inch of rain Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning. This clears out Tuesday afternoon.
This is a quick report, because I got to get to Action.
Enjoy a few days of drying and warmth.
Jack Martin
2/21/24
Good Wednesday morning,
And it is a good morning because the rain is over for a few days.
Last night shortly after midnight I was awakened by the heavy rain at my house for the most part we received around a half an inch of rain in Santa Barbara, and less everywhere else.
The low is now moving east and the rain is over until Sunday night when the next storm arrives.
We will see four days of drying and warmer temperatures as we get into Thursday, Friday and Saturday of this week. It looks like the next system will come in later in the afternoon Sunday into Monday. This does not look like a big system and we will receive anywhere for 1/4 inch to 1 inch of rain at this point, depending on which model you’re reading. Bottom line with all the rain we have seen, we are way ahead of schedule. Just look at some of these facts. It’s amazing. Santa Barbara has received 196% of normal rainfall for the year to date and we are at 133% above normal rainfall for the year.
The entire county has received more rainfall to date than we received typically in an entire year that goes through the end of September of 2024. Not including what’s coming next week or will receive last night, because this was through 8 AM yesterday.
I think everybody agrees we all need a break. Let the water run out of the dirt into the streams and begin a dry out process
enjoy a few days of nice weather I know I will.
Jack Martin
2/20/24
Wow, where do I start today with what has happened since Sunday afternoon and even the start of Saturday?
I can’t even remember back to Saturday when we saw that ¼ to ½ start to this storm. Remember when I called this storm an 8 out of 10 for February?
And a 10 out of 10 for another other storm, well I was wrong. This will be an 11 out of 10 when it is all said and done. Just look at these storm totals since Saturday
Montecito 7 inches, Santa Barbara 5 inches, San Marcas Pass 10.5 inches, KYTD tower 11.5 inches https://www.weather.gov/lox/LAXRRMSBA
And we are not done yet… The AR (atmospheric river) is just to the south of us, with still some light showers today. https://zoom.earth/
You can see the current radar showing most of the rain just south of us https://radar.weather.gov/station/KVTX/standard
Here are a few videos (attached San Ysidro creek ) on my YouTube channel toro creek 2/19/24 toro creek like rapids https://youtube.com/shorts/Kc7a7oJlRl4?si=6X_zxVQ26VL7gRSU
So what do we have to look forward to? Today will be relatively dry with some light showers, areas Santa Ynez north mostly dry today.
Tonight it starts back up again as the core of the low moves through. This will bring rain rates to 1 inch per hour and possibility of thunder and lighting and waterspouts.
Rain will be heavy at times, which with all the rain we have already had, everyone should stay away from creeks. There could be some flash flooding due to the down pours.
Rain will fall over night and into Wednesday morning. Rain should wrap up Wednesday around noon.
Thursday and Friday will be dry, also likely Saturday. Then the next system comes in Sunday into Monday night. This is not looking to be wild like this one, ½ to 1 inch of light to moderate rain, but it will keep us very wet into early next week. Then hopefully a break so we can all dry out.
Hang in there, one more round of heavy rain tonight. Then a break for a few days.
This will be a historical February rainfall; we will be talking about this year for many years to come.
That’s the fun for the day, now off to Action
Jack Martin
2/19/24
Good Monday morning and Presidents’ Day,
For some, you get to sleep in and celebrate another day off that is on the books for schools, government and banks. I am a president of Action Roofing, but no day off for me. It will be another busy day with around 3 inches of rain overnight and 5 inches on the pass. Rain in Ventura and LA is just starting up where LA has seen very little and Ventura 1/3 of what we have seen. The atmospheric river is shifting south over Ventura, Oxnard and LA this morning. Rain here will lighten up a bit late morning with only some showers the rest of the day and even Tuesday during the daytime.
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=34.18,-136.78,5.13z
Rain total have been impressive with 3 plus inches over night, with more rain to follow earlier this morning. Heavy rains are shifting into LA this morning, but they will not see as much as we saw overnight. Showers will continue but on and off through Tuesday day. Tuesday night the low pressure system open up and drifts through our area. This will bring the heaviest rain of the storm with thunder, lighting and a few tornados possible.
Wednesday mid day we clear up through Friday, with another system slated for the weekend. This looks to be lighter with 1/2 to 1 inch of rain.
The way this month has gone 1/2 to an 1inch is like a drizzle or light rain.
In the meantime daylight is coming earlier now, starting in the first half of the 6am hour. We will be able to see what effect the rains have had on our properties and neighborhoods. Here are some rain totals for the storm https://www.weather.gov/lox/LAXRRMSBA
Here is the radar currently, you can see the heavier rain shifting south and lightening up here https://radar.weather.gov/station/KVBX/standard
Stay tuned, it is not over yet. Tuesday night will get real interesting again.
Showers until then.
Jack Martin
2/18/24 Evening Update
Here I am watching the NBA All-Star game and waiting for the 7:30 update for the weather, but you can take a look at the Zoom Earth and see how active we are right now and will continue to be
Zoom Earth | Live Weather Map & Hurricane Tracker
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=37.4,-143.5,4.77z
But based on the last update, we’re looking at heavy rain overnight with a number of inches of rain, falling heavy at times.
The target area is Santa Barbara and Ventura. Los Angeles will stay relatively dry overnight until the early morning hours and then they will be the ones getting the atmospheric river on top of them.
Monday we will start to see a break or a pause because he got forever will be over Ventura and LA and they will see what we’re going to see overnight
Tomorrow for them will be quite crazy with heavy rain. Specially, during rush-hour traffic.
7:12 PM and I’m waiting for the update to come in in 20 minutes or so so I’ll finish this report at that point, but it does look like Santa Barbara will get the heaviest rain from 9 PM until tomorrow morning.
OK I give up I’ve been waiting for the 7:30 update is now 8 o’clock so I’m gonna give you the update. It’s gonna rain a lot.
Talk to you in the morning.
Jack Martin
2/18/24
Good Sunday morning,
Just take a look at this comma shaped system. This a a classic west coast low pressure system that is wound up spinning tropical moisture our way. This is California version of a hurricane. It is 300 mile away from the central coast right now. Getting ready to start the Action later this afternoon on the central coast, to around dawn in LA.
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=31.8,-122.4,4z/date=2024-02-18,00:20,-8
Yesterday the rain started, but it gave everyone 1/4 to 1/3 on an inch, which was spot on the predictions.
Today we will see a pause into the rain until mid afternoon before the real Action starts. This will bring us heavy rain tonight into Monday and really through Monday. Expect wind of 20 to 30 miles an hour with mountains up to 50 miles an hour. Rain rates have been updated and up graded to 1/2 to 1 inch per hour at the peak of the storm, with the storm last from 12 to 24 hours with heavier rain.
Rain totals of 2 to 5 inches coastal 4 to 8 inches foothills and mountains with up to 10 inches on south facing mountains. Yes this is the real deal. Very similar to the last system that we saw, except the ground is even more saturated. All the normal problems with heavy rains will exist from down trees, mud and land slides, power outages to flooding of creek and streams. It will get interesting.
The low pressure system will move very slowly south and is expected to pause over Ventura and LA later Monday afternoon or night. This will just pump more rain over those location.
Flash flood warnings are in effect in the burn areas and along all the creeks and stream.
Evacuation warning have gone out to all the typical locations, basically the same as the last system. Creeks, streams and burn areas.
Tuesday a pause in the rain, before the low opens up and moves through with heavy rain Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Wednesday late morning, the rain should come to an end, with dry days Thursday and Friday. However Saturday into Sunday it looks like more rain with February going out with a bang. Let’s hope that March will be drier. We are tapped out with all the rain in the past month.
Ok you have a little more time to prepare for the strongest part of the system.
It will be a good one.
Jack Martin
2/16/24
Good Friday morning,
Are you ready? Here we go again, but not today or even Saturday daytime.
This is a very interesting article that was shared to me by Steven (Thanks Steven)
This is pretty interesting for two reasons
1. it’s been enough that we are in El Niño but a super El Niño !!!!
2. In the same paragraph, they talk about us getting into La Niña by the end of summer.
https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/super-el-nino-arrives-rapid-collapse-la-nina-watch
Rare ‘Super’ El Nino arrives but rapid collapse beginning as La Nina Watch issued
A strong El Niño winter season has become a rare “super” El Niño season. But it’s quickly losing steam as the ocean undergoes a rapid reversal, likely heading to an opposite La Niña pattern by summer.
As far as our weather goes, we are just a little more than half way through a historical February for rainfall and more is on the way.
Today and Saturday we’re looking at dry weather with some clouds, highs in the 60s to 70° in warmest valleys
Saturday it looks like the next storm system approaches but will only clip SLO.
Saturday night into Sunday rain returns for all. This will start out minimal with 1/4 to 1/2 inch 1 inch on southwest faces.
Sunday some on and off rain, but not anything crazy.
Sunday night into Monday morning it is game on and really all the way though Monday.
Tuesday more rain into the evening.
Wednesday the encore performance like last week. The core of the low will pass and bring heavy rain at times, possible thunder and more. 1 inch per hour rains at times.
All in all, 2 to 4 inches coastal, and 4 to 6 in the foothills and up to 8 more in the mountains and south facing.
Yes it will be another soaker in February. 13 days left, I can’t wait for March….
Ok back to Action, 5 hours of sleep, here we go again
Jack Martin
2/16/24
Good Friday morning,
Are you ready, here we go again, but not today or even on Saturday daytime.
This is a very interesting article that was shared with me by Steven (Thanks Steven )
This is pretty interesting for two reasons:
It’s been enough that we are in El Niño but a super El Niño!!!!
In the same paragraph talk about us getting into La Niña by the end of summer
https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/super-el-nino-arrives-rapid-collapse-la-nina-watch
Rare ‘Super’ El Nino arrives but rapid collapse beginning as La Nina Watch issued
A strong El Niño winter season has become a rare “super” El Niño season. But it’s quickly losing steam as the ocean undergoes a rapid reversal, likely heading to an opposite La Niña pattern by summer.
www.foxweather.com
As far as our weather goes we are just a little more than halfway through a historical February for rainfall and more is on the way.
Today and Saturday we’re looking at dry weather with some clouds and highs in the 60s to 70° in the warmest valleys.
Saturday and looks like the next storm system approaches but that only clips SLO.
Saturday night into Sunday rain returns for all. This will start out minimal with 1/4 to 1/2 inch 1 inch on southwest faces.
Sunday some on-and-off rain, but not anything crazy.
Sunday night into Monday morning it is game on and really all the way through Monday.
Tuesday more rain into the evening.
Wednesday the encore performance like last week. The core of the low will pass and bring heavy rain at times, possible thunder and more. 1 inch per hour rains at times.
All in all 2 to 4 inches coastal and, 4 to 6 in the foothills, and up to 8 more in the mountains and south facing.
Yes, there will be another soaker in February. 13 days left, and I can’t wait for March ….
Ok back to Action 5 hours of sleep, here we go again.
Jack Martin
2/14/24
Good Wednesday morning and happy Valentine’s Day.
A low pressure system is approaching and some are waking up to fog.
Today after the fog clears, an overall nice day, but tonight we will see a 30% chance of rain coming through.
Thursday we will likely see a marine layer, drizzle and some light rain possible, so prepare as needed.
Thursday night into Friday after the weak system rolls through, we have a great day with some highs close to 70 degrees.
Saturday will be transition day before rain starts Saturday night. Beyond Saturday night and Sunday morning, the models are not really clear on exactly when the real rain event will start, but will arrive Sunday night into Monday or later.
Monday is still in question. I’m sure that everything will come together as we get closer as far as Rain goes, we are still on track to see 2 to 5 inches coastal and 5 to 8 inches in foothills and mountains.
Like the last system it will be very windy with winds 40 to 50 miles an hour. Also this system will bring lower snow levels. They will be more like 4500 feet. Needless say we will get into another very wet and windy pattern likely through Tuesday and possibly into Wednesday of next week.
Get prepared, this will cause flooding in areas due to the saturated soils and the heavier rains.
Here is a little geography lesson. I did not know the surrounding countries to costa Rica. Today is my last full day, before a travel day Thursday. See you back home late Thursday. Have a great Valentine’s Day, guys don’t forget or you will be in the dog house.
Jack Martin
2/13/24
Good Tuesday morning,
Dry weather will continue through the weekend with a few slight twists.
Today will be sunny for the most part, with some locations waking up to fog.
After the fog clears mostly sunny with a high of 60.
Tonight fog and some drizzle possible for all as a weak system passes to the north
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=38.82,-126.99,5z
The rest of the work week basically brings us dry conditions with some fog again Wednesday overnight into Thursday.
A weak ridge builds in Thursday and hangs in place through Friday.
Friday night into Saturday a low pressure system pushes into the area and will bring back rain and a wet few systems.
It appears Saturday will be mostly dry, then the first system comes in Saturday night into Sunday. The first system will not bring that much rain, but Sunday night into Monday is when the heavy rain returns into Tuesday.
It does look like the crazy rain total for February will keep adding up with total Sunday till Wednesday of 2 to 4 or more inches coastal and 4 to 8 inches in the mountains.
February has really performed to El Niño 2024 with just crazy rain totals and we are not done yet. With the ground saturated from all the rains earlier in the month, it will not take much to get creeks and stream humming again, some flooding is likely.
Enjoy the rest of the work week which will be dry, with only some fog and drizzle possible over night Tuesday and Wednesday nights.
I return Thursday afternoon, just in time to get ready for the next round of rains. Oh Joy for me !!!
Have a good week, don’t forget Valentine day is Wednesday.
Jack Martin
2/8/24
Good Thursday morning,
Well, last night was just like an encore to a performance.
Whether it’s good or bad news, the rains are over for right now.
It looks like we will have dry weather through at least next Wednesday.
Today the wind is going to blow quite hard as it’s doing so right now at 2:53 AM.
Chilly out there this morning with the snow levels to our local mountain heights last night. We received anywhere from half an inch to 1 1/2 inches of additional rainfall in a very short period of time last night. It actually came down harder than I’ve seen during any of the other storms this year, but it didn’t last for a long period of time.
It looks like we’re in for dry weather and cool temperatures, highs might be in the 50s and then by the Weekend, into the 60s. The good news is that the rains are over and we have had record rains the past 10 days where we are well above normal by almost double. We have more rainfall for the year to date than we typically get for the entire year and our weather season goes from October 1, 2023 to October 1, 2024. As you can see we still have eight months left in our season. Needless to say this year will exceed normal rainfalls totals by far.
I’m sure we’re all ready for a break. We will have to see what the future brings, but looks like the next chance of rain will be late next week.
Enjoy El Niño. What do you like it or not?
Jack Martin
2/7/24
Good Wednesday morning,
It is Wednesday right?? I have lost track of the days because I have worked every day for the last 12.
The rain has been just nuts for the past 10 days and it is not over yet. check this out.
This is done really well and shows how LA area really got hammered but came out of the rains with minimal problems. (you need a spare 10 minutes)
Take a look at the rain percentages for the year, season to date and the lake levels.
Santa Barbara is now 101% for the entire year of rainfall. 183% year to date.
Lakes are full … and they are opening the dams
https://files.countyofsb.org/pwd/hydrology/Rainfall%20Reports/rainfallreport.pdf
What’s happening today? When will the rain be back?
Today, like most of this week so far, it will be mostly dry with just a few showers possible during the day.
It is chilly out there with snow levels at 4000 feet and some snow on the grape vine today.
Tonight another system will bring us more rain. Rain will start up late in the afternoon in SLO then come through our area overnight. Rain totals of another ½ inch
This will move fast and will be mostly over by Thursday sunrise, some showers are possible into Friday morning.
Here it is approaching the bay area now https://zoom.earth/
The weekend and into next week we will get a break, through Tuesday at this point. Models show another system later in the week next.
El Nino continues and this has been a special February, so far with crazy rain totals.
One interesting news story I heard today while typing this report… This weekend is the 60th anniversary of the Beatles first shows on Ed Sullivan in 1964, 60 years ago.
71 million people tuned in to watch them play that night.
If you don’t know Ed Sullivan, he had the best variety show in the 60s and 70s. Everyone tuned in back in the day to watch him on Sunday nights.
I remember watching this all the time when I was a kid. Not that I wanted to at the time. I had no choice because all the adults watch the black and white 25-inch console TV Sunday nights.
It was Lawrence Welk then Ed Sullivan as I remember it .. (25-inch TV was huge at that time)
Am I dating myself? 😊 oh well …. That’s fine …
Have a great day as always, hope I brighten your day a little, with my humor.
Jack Martin
2/6/24
Good Tuesday morning,
The crazy rain totals just keep climbing as we are now entering into day 8 since the rains began. It is not like the 40 days and 40 nights when Noah’s arch was stated, but it is beginning to feel like it.
Santa Barbara areas in the last 12 hours has received over another inch of additional rain 24 hours almost 2 inches. San Marcos pass 2.45in. Just crazy rain total for this storm, and it is not over yet. https://www.weather.gov/lox/LAXRRMSBA
Los angles and San Diego have been getting hammered over the last 24 hours with 10 inches and 15 inches in 48 hours in some locations. https://www.weather.gov/lox/LAXRRMLOS
The only good news is the heavy steady rain is now moving out and it will just turn to showers.
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=22.9,-109,4z
Today rain continues, but on the lighter side with just showers.
Showers will slow as the day goes on, but Wednesday more light rain as 1 more system brings around 1/4 inch of light rain, posing no real threat but more light rain. In fact there is a slight chance for showers into Friday.
The weekend looks to finally put the rain behind us with dry weather and 60s Saturday and Sunday. Then most likely into Monday also.
Current radar still shows rain in the LA area https://radar.weather.gov/station/KVTX/standard
This has been just nuts with all the rain in the past 8 days.
El Niño lives in California. When it rains it pours here.
Hang in there, we are on the back side now. I would say see you in the trenches, but they are filled with water right now.
Stay dry.
Jack Martin
2/4/24
Good Monday morning,
What a crazy Sunday, just wild weather after a slower start to the storm. As everyone is aware it was wild around 1pm and the winds and rains were just nuts.
Trees were dropping from the winds all over town, and the flooding was just nuts. I have lots of videos I made in my adventures. I am glad I drive a 4-wheel drive truck.
I was out in the craziness doing what we could to protect homes from water leaking in. I compare days like Sunday to, you turned your home on its side and the rain would flow into it. The wind gusts were 60 miles an hour from the southeast and rain rates were ½ to 1 inch per hour. The freeways did as good as they could. The airport did close from the craziness and flooded runways.
All in all we held up pretty good at creeks and rivers, it was crazy, and water piled up in the flood areas downtown. All the water made small lakes around Salsupudas.
(do you know what that means in Spanish “get out if you can “) it was indeed crazy down there, the area around my office was filed with water for the entire block of Cota and Salsupudas. At least my office was 6 inches above the water line. https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=42.5,-99.9,4z/date=2024-02-05,03:40,-8
Today all the rain has shifted into LA area with lots of rain falling there. For us we will see a mostly dry day with just a few showers possible, and with rain returning tonight as the front passes through.
We have received incredible amounts of rain in a short period of time. Most of us saw 4 inches in a 12-hour period and San Marcos pass over 5 inches. storm totals for the past week are just crazy numbers, with well over 10 inches to 15 inches so far. https://www.weather.gov/lox/LAXRRMSBA
As mentioned earlier today mostly dry with all the rain in the LA south areas where they will see a few inches of rain https://radar.weather.gov/station/KVTX/standard
Rain will return tonight for us as the front and unstable air passes through. Snow levels will drop to 6000 feet then to 5000 feet Tuesday.
Rain ends Tuesday and we begin the dry out period. The extended forecast is still not real clear, with a chance of rain later in the week, but it should be on the lighter side.
More on that to come on Tuesday’s forecast.
As we all know the ground is saturated and all the lakes are now going to be full. I am good with rain now, please bring on summer ☹
Ok off to the office and mop up the fun from yesterday.
Jack Martin
2/3/24
Good Saturday morning,
Ok here we go. You know it is going to be interesting when the schools have already Announced they will be closed on Monday. This reminds me of when I lived in Phila as a kid and we would hover by the radio in the morning and listen to see if the snow closed the schools for the day. It is funny to hear the same thing all these years later in California for Rain 🤔😂 before it even happens
As everyone is aware my now, we are going to see 2 more, back to back low pressure systems affect us though Tuesday of next week. These 2 events on top of the rains that we have had this week which has saturated the soils. Heavy run off is expected.
Now let’s try to spell out the forecast.
We have really 2 low pressure systems that will create rain late today, one which is a warmer front coming more westerly today, then Monday and Tuesday coming from the north.
Both of these will bring us heavy rain with a very large accumulation.
Here is how it looks from the sky right now https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=34,-113.2,4z
Today will be mostly dry, then rain chances start up after 4pm. The heaviest rain will be Sunday into Tuesday
Tonight rain will fall heavy after midnight all the way through Sunday night with subtropical moisture feeding it.
On Monday, system 2. a colder one drops down and stalls over us pumping in subtropical moisture bring us more heavy rain through Tuesday.
You can see this from the graphic below when the heaviest rain will fall.
How much rain will fall and how it will affect us? Let’s talk about the rain …
3 to 6 inches coastal through Monday 6 to 12 inches in the mountains.
South facing mountains (us) much more. It is possible we could see 8 inches along the coast and foothills and 15 inches on south facing mountains.
It will be quite windy, winds last night blew hard from the north west, today later this afternoon they will shift to the southeast setting up our Pineapple Express, or atmospheric river or what ever you want to call it. winds tonight in the mountains will be 60 mils and hour from the southeast.
Rain heavy overnight and all the way through Sunday, with plenty of wind
Snow levels drop on Monday and lots of snow will fall in resort areas.
Rains will end Tuesday night, with another weaker storm possible late next week.
Regarding flooding and Evacuations.
The only area with evacuations in process is the burn areas near Gaviota.
Here nothing at this point, but I was at Westmont College yesterday and the creeks were running hard with no rain. You can only imagine what a few days of heavy rain will do to creeks, streams and rivers. It will get interesting.
They are comparing this event to Jan 9th 2023. That was wild because I was in the heart of montecito trying to cover roofs. Creeks were roaring. Hotsprings and Olivemill rd the water was running over its banks onto Olivemill rd.
All creeks will be tested to their maximum. If i lived next to a creek Saturday and Sunday night in Montecito especially I would be staying elsewhere.
The hills are more stable since the shrubs and grasses have grown back. Montecito will learn why you have boulders in your yards. Just look at the mountains above, you can see them quite well, some will come down.
My best advice, stay tuned. I will up date as I can.
There will be likely power outages.
I am glad to say I have solar and back up batteries to power my homes when the electricity goes out. Enjoy the ride, that’s it for now more to follow.
Jack Martin
2/2/24
Good Friday morning,
Where do I start today?
The first of 2 strong storm systems has passed through leaving us with impressive rain totals for a 24 hour period. Summarizing quickly, everyone saw 3 inches of rain. San Marcos pass 6.32 inches. The Santa Barbara area got hit the hardest.
Here are the local numbers.
https://www.weather.gov/lox/LAXRRMSBA
Today, we will see some north winds and a few passing showers. Really nothing to be cautious of, maybe a few mountain showers.
Looking ahead the big news is all about the next storm system. The grounds are saturated and the second system is right on the heels of yesterday’s system.
If you look closely at the forecast you will see that the timing of the rains start time has moved up by 12 to 24 hours. It does appear we will be mostly dry today and daylight hours on Saturday, but rain will move in Saturday night into the early morning of Sunday. This second system is looking very powerful and long lasting. Some models show showers into Wednesday or Thursday morning. The main event starts Sunday morning and lasts into Tuesday. There is a lot of subtropical moisture and a low pressure system that is predicted to stall over us and pump in the moisture for up to 2 days. With the saturated ground and rain rates of a steady 1/2 inch or more per hour it is going to make flooding in low-living areas likely.
Updated rain totals have not come out today, but as of yesterday they were talking about 3 to 6 inches coastal and foothills. 6 to 12 inches in the mountains and a 30% to 50% chance that coastal areas of south facing hills (us) could see 8 inches of rain and mountains 15 inches. These number were from yesterday and I will wait for the updated numbers, but this system is looking to be the Holy grail of storms for the year.
There will be significant flooding along some creeks and rivers. At this point there is a 25% chance that the Ventura and Santa Ynez rivers will reach flood stages. A Significant rise in level will occur and don’t be stupid to try white water rafting. You laugh, but some folks will.
Regarding Montecito and the heavy rains. I have received a number of calls at this point. It is still too early to know how much impact there will be, but small stream flooding is likely and everyone should keep an eye on the forecast Sunday though Monday.
This is when the heaviest rain will fall. I will update on a regular basis Sunday and Monday.
Get prepared because you have 2 daylight days before a lot of rain falls, especially if you live in low lying areas.
More to come, we will be making the national news
Jack Martin
2/2/24
Good Friday morning,
Where do I start today?
The first of 2 strong storm systems has passed through leaving us with impressive rain totals for a 24-hour period. Summarizing quickly, everyone saw 3 inches of rain. San Marcos pass 6.32 inches. The Santa Barbara area was hit the hardest.
Here are the local numbers.
https://www.weather.gov/lox/LAXRRMSBA
Today we will see some north winds and a few passing showers. Nothing to be cautious of, maybe a few mountain showers.
Looking ahead the big news is all about the next storm system. The grounds are saturated and the second system is right on the heels of yesterday’s system.
If you look closely at the forecast you will see that the timing of the rains starting has moved up by 12 to 24 hours. It does appear we will be mostly dry today and daylight hours on Saturday, but rain will move in Saturday night into the early morning of Sunday. This second system looks very powerful and long-lasting. Some models show showers into Wednesday or Thursday morning. The main event starts Sunday morning and lasts into Tuesday. There is a lot of subtropical moisture and a low-pressure system that is predicted to stall over us and pump in the moisture for up to 2 days. With the saturated ground and rain rates of a steady 1/2 inch or more per hour, it is going to make flooding of low-living areas likely.
Updated rain totals have not come out today, but as of yesterday, they were talking about 3 to 6 inches in coastal and foothills, 6 to 12 inches in the mountains, and a 30% to 50% chance that coastal areas of south-facing hills (us) could see 8 inches of rain and mountains 15 inches. These numbers were from yesterday and I will wait for the updated numbers, but this system is looking to be the Holly grail of storms for the year. There will be significant flooding along some creeks and rivers. At this point, there is a 25% chance that the Ventura, and Santa Ynez rivers will reach flood stages. A Significant rise in level will occur and don’t be stupid to try white water rafting. You laugh, but some folks will.
Regarding Montecito and the heavy rains. I have received a number of calls at this point. It is still too early to know how much impact there will be, but small stream flooding is likely and everyone should keep an eye on the forecast Sunday through Monday. This is when the heaviest rain will fall. I will update on a regular basis on Sunday and Monday.
Get prepared because you have 2 daylight days before a lot of rain falls, especially if you live in low-lying areas.
More to come, we will be making the national news
Jack Martin
2/1/24
Good Thursday morning,
Welcome to February, the wettest month of the year.
We are certainly starting off with very wet weather. Where the rain duration was not very long, we did see some great totals in a short period of time. The Santa Barbara area over night saw 2 plus inches for all and 3.5 inches in the hills. The San Marcus Pass has seen almost 5 inches, Montecito 2.5 inches. The subtropical jet is now moving south of our area, so the heavy rain will come to an end in the next 2 hours
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=33.42,-113.62,5.31z/date=2024-02-01,03:20,-8
The winds also have been a big factor, with a large tree down on Carrillo hill. Stay away from that area this morning.
As I mentioned the heaviest part of the first storm system is almost over. Rain rates were 1/4 to 1/2 per hour through the night with strong south winds. https://radar.weather.gov/station/KVTX/standard
For the rest of the day, heavy rains will turn to showers shortly, but for the most part dry with just some showers lingering.
Friday and Saturday will be dry, but the next system rolls in Saturday night into Sunday.
This next system will bring double what the first system brought us over night and last 24 to 48 hours with moderate to heavy rain at times.
The next system will have subtropical support and spin down the coast and stall near us pumping in the subtropical moisture for a much longer period of time. All the models agree this will be the strongest system of 2024 and accumulations of 2 to 4 inches coastal 4 to 8 inches mountains and more on south faces (us).
Of course, we will need to watch this. Systems like this in the past have really created long lasting rains for days, which can result in flooding. This will be one to watch as it gets closer.
Stay tuned, dry for a few days then watch out for this next one.
Jack Martin