2/28/23
Good Tuesday morning and the last day of February,
Although this is not a leap year. 2024 is, so I will get it right next year 😊
We will have a relatively dry Tuesday before more rain returns late afternoon and tonight.
It makes me laugh when the National weather service writes in the forecast that the storm system has overachieved expectations.
I think pretty much this entire rainy season has overachieved expectations, as we are more than 200% of normal rainfall for the season today. Can you believe San Marcos pass has received 58 inches of rain this season, so far?
Here is the next round of weather heading our way https://zoom.earth/#view=33,-117.8,4z/map=live .
This is north to south right now, but it will be cut off later in the day.
creating south winds and good rainfall late this afternoon and tonight. snow levels will start out today at 3000 to 4000 feet, then overnight drop to 1500 to 2500 feet.
This will bring back lots of pretty pictures of our mountains and plenty of snow. Closer to sea level more rain. ½ to 1 ½ inches with 1 to 3 inches in the hills and at the best exposure another 4 inches. Snow will be in the feet above 5000 feet, 4 to 8 inches below and snow down to 1500 feet by Wednesday morning. The rain/snow will end Wednesday during the day then the chill returns Wednesday night with freezing temps overnight. (stay off the 154 Thursday morning, we don’t need another 6-car crash from ice)
Thursday through Saturday day we are looking for dry weather, and a slight warm-up. Highs will get into the low 60s, which is better than the 50s.
Sunday and into next week, it just will not break. it looks like we will be remaining in the wet pattern with more rain and cool weather.
This pattern really must break soon since we are getting into March and typically the end of the rainy season. Let’s hope for some 70s after next week.
In the meantime enjoy the wet, cool weather another week. You don’t have a choice unless you get on a plane.
Jack Martin
2/27/23
Good Monday morning,
We are waking to more rain and snow at higher elevations.
Light rain is the story for the next 2 days as another Pacific Northwest low is going to bring us periods of rain into Wednesday. This morning we are seeing rain, look for 1/10 too .40 from the first wave.
More rain Tuesday into Wednesday. Then Thursday we get a break till Sunday. The snow level is at 4000 feet but will drop to 2500 to 3000 feet. This means more snow in the mountains and on the Grapevine. The 101 will be a mess if the grapevine continues to be closed.
All in all, we are looking at a total of 1/2 to an inch along the coast. 1 to 2 inches in the mountains. And up to 3 inches on south faces in SB and SLO.
Snow is 4 to 8 inches below 4000 feet and a few feet above 5000 feet. The winter storm advisory continues for the mountains.
Thursday through Saturday will be dry. Warming into the low 60s. Sunday it looks like another system will begin to affect SLO and Santa Barbara county.
Yesterday I took a drive to Santa Ynez to look at the fantastic views. Where I was not alone it was worth the drive. All the observation areas on the Pass were packed with cars. The incredible views were worth the 3-hour trip, and I got to have lunch with my kids and grandkids.
Enjoy the damp first half of the work week. Our crazy rainy season seems to only keep going.
Jack Martin
2/25/23
Good Saturday morning,
Hope everyone slept well and stayed dry. It has been a wild week and now we will go into phase 3 of the storm.
The low-pressure system is just off-point conception spinning ever so slowly south and east. https://zoom.earth/#view=32,-109.8,5z/map=live
What does this mean for us? Today steady rain will now turn to showers. because this air is so cold it will squeeze out any moisture in the clouds.
Rain is showery with very heavy at times. Thundershowers and small tornados are all possible, and of course snow above 2500 feet. Highs will get to the low 50s only, and the snow level 2500 to 3500.
Tonight the rain will stop, and we will have a break for Sunday. Short-lived because the next system is right on top of this one. Sunday night rain returns into Monday.
This system is a lot weaker with no southern support and moisture starved. what does that mean? 1/3 to 2/3 of an inch of rain.
Tuesday through Thursday we will have a series of inside sliders, this translates to wind and very little moisture along with colder weather.
snow below 4000 feet and highs along the coast in the mid-50s.
The biggest impact today will be the freeway with the grapevine being closed because of snow. 101 will be a place to avoid. Unfortunately, next week the inside sliders will give more snow to the grapevine, so heavy traffic on the 101 is likely through midweek. The good news is Friday and into the weekend we warm up to the low 60s. “I would prefer the 70s”, but we will take what we get.
2023 has been quite a year for all the crazy rain, wind, and snow. On top of that, Tuesday is a leap year, so we have an extra day and all babies born on that day will have a birthday every 4 years only. Just think, I am 63, and 63 divided by 4= 15.75 that be pretty cool. Right now we have received 2.5 to 6 inches of rain with this storm. https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/lox/scripts/getlocal.php?prod=LAXRRMSBA don’t look at carp, at 16.79 someone’s math is messed up 😊. Heavier rain has now shifted to the south https://radar.weather.gov/station/KVBX/standard this one shows it best https://radar.weather.gov/station/KVTX/standard
When you wake up, look at the mountains. It should be very pretty looking at the mountains in Santa Ynez. Here we may see some snow up high in our local coastal mountains.
at 8 am the season’s rain totals will be out, and it will be fun to look at the total for this historical year. The snowpack is just crazy with Mammoth receiving 35 feet of snow to date.
The craziness will continue into the spring, which we hope is right around the corner. The central valley however will not be excited about the snow melt, because the flooding there will be crazy.
March arrives on Wednesday, and hopefully, this will be the worst of the rain for the season. Spring showers are fine, but I want the 70s to return.
The great news is daylight savings starts on March 12 just 2 weeks away. We will all be happy to welcome longer evenings again.
The great news is that all the rain of the year has filled the lakes and we will not hear about water restrictions for years to come. “I wonder if water rates will come down ?”
For some reason I doubt it.
Here are the totals for the year as of Friday at 8am. The numbers will be much higher today https://files.countyofsb.org/pwd/hydrology/Rainfall%20Reports/rainfallreport.pdf
still, we are way ahead OF ANY YEAR for rain totals.
Have fun today, stay off the 101 and close to home. Sunday would be a good day to visit the snow in the local mountains. Figueroa Mountain will be popular on Sunday.
Ok, I got up way too early today, I must get ready for a workday, as Action Roofing is open for business today. Fixing leaks and covering up roofs.
Have a great day!
Jack Martin
2/23/23
Good Thursday morning,
Wednesday was interesting little bit of hail open Solvang. And some light showers at the fun is just beginning.
Take a lookup in the mountains you’ll see a light dusting of snow. levels remain low today 1500 to 2500. It will also be very cold today it’s only in the 50s.
Where do I start from here?
Here is the current radar. You can see that we have scattered showers and more Westerly flow over our area. https://radar.weather.gov/station/KVBX/standard
North Winds are now I’m starting to shift a little bit more Westerly. This is going to increase the chance of rain in our area throughout the day.
There will not be a lot of rain today just scattered showers, but everybody will see it at some point. Tonight winds will shift again and become more southeasterly which will increase the rainfall as the low gets closer to our area.
Friday and particularly Friday night into Saturday we’re going to experience heavy rains.
Good southeast flow will create heavy rains for Santa Barbara, as low pressure moves very slowly down the coast pumping in Pacific moisture. Santa Barbara will see 2 to 5 inches of rain. The mountains of Santa Barbara are 5 to 7 inches.
The snow level will remain low until Friday and then will rise to 4500 feet as the storm Moves in. Rain will be heavy into Saturday. Then the snow level begins to drop again down to around 2000 feet Friday night into Saturday. This should show us lots of white stuff on local mountains when you wake up on Saturday morning.
The blizzard warning will expire Saturday night, but there still could be blowing snow up in the mountains my suggestion is “stay away.”
Sunday it looks like a break in the action that might be a good day for you to go to the snow. But Monday looks like another system will begin to affect us more from Monday night till Wednesday. This is going to be weaker system, but we can still expect another inch of rain. Snow levels will remain low for this next storm.
It will be interesting to see when the next day that we actually get up to 60° we will have remained in the 50s for more than a week.
It was interesting to me that the national weather service mentioned the weather from 1989 and one of my clients wrote back about a story that he had with his son I had to share.
“Oh yeah, the Blizzard of ’89. I remember it well. My son, age 20, nearly died.
He and a friend decided to hike from the back of the San Rafael Range to Santa Barbara. April, so what could go wrong? Fortunately, I suggested polypropylene underwear, which he bought as an afterthought.
I don’t remember how they got to their starting point. They climbed as far as Mission Basin (±5,000’) when the snow started in full force. They were snowbound and unable to see to find directions for 24 hours, wrapped around each other in a small tent to share some warmth. They were able to finish the walk the next day. I was in the process of calling for helicopters when he called to say he was OK.”
The moral of the story is to stay out of the mountains over the next three days.
Enjoy the fun or hard for you to define it. It will be an interesting 2 1/2 days
Stay safe indoors and watch the crazy weather from inside your house.
Jack Martin
2/22/23- Update
I like this forecast that is simple to read
“Widely scattered showers almost exclusively over the mountains,
the Central Coast, and the northwestern portion of the Antelope Vly
will continue today and overnight. Rainfall amounts will only be
0.05-0.25 inches while above 2000 ft 1 to 4 inches of snow is
possible.
A deep low-pressure system will drop down the West Coast Thursday
through Saturday with heavy precipitation expected mainly on Friday,
followed by numerous showers into the weekend. Rain rates are likely
to range from 0.50-1.0 inches per hour when the front moves through
the area on Friday. Rainfall totals with this system will be
widespread of 2-4 inches for the coasts and valleys of Santa
Barbara, Ventura, and Los Angeles Counties from Thursday night through
Saturday. Snow levels will remain low with the lower foothills
seeing 4-6 inches of rain and then a mix or change over to snow
above 2500 feet. Snow totals with this system will be very
significant with 6-12 inches up to 4000 feet and 2-5 feet above
4000 feet with isolated 7-foot totals at higher elevations.
The break between storm systems could be brief on Sunday to early
Monday when another significant rain event impacts the area on
Tuesday or Wednesday next week.”
Jack Martin
2/22/23
Good Wednesday morning,
Wow, what a wild night it was at my house. That wind blew everything, everywhere. If I still had the ducky in my pool she would have flown away (INSIDE JOKE FOR LONG TIME WEATHER GROUPERS).
Today we switch to phase 2 of the historical weather to come this week. 2023 will be remembered for a long time. This week will be the coldest we have seen for decades. Just look at this map graphic calling out for a blizzard warning for our local mountains (a warning means it will happen, and a watch means it might happen ) (THIS IS A WARNING). Stay out of the elements for the next 3 to 4 nights I was up late last night because of the winds, and a few other factors. Reading the upcoming weather report (because I have nothing better to do 😊) We are going to have just crazy weather.
Right now 45 degrees at my house and breezy at 10 to 20 miles an hour. Last night we hit gusts of 70 miles an hour on my little hill.
I love this as the national weather service starts the forecast for today
“All systems go for a major and unusual storm.”
Today, cold highs will be in the 50s, chilly and windy. Tonight is cold, Santa Ynez will be at 34 degrees and Santa Barbara at 41 degrees. As far as rain goes, the chances start to increase tonight, but the north flow will not amount to much.
If it does rain the best chance is in Santa Ynez and North.
Thursday, it all starts to change. The North flow starts to change westerly then south as the huge cold low-pressure system gets closer. https://zoom.earth/
Thursday night the rain starts in Santa Barbara and Thursday day in Santa Ynez but don’t expect a lot of rain Thursday into Friday morning ( maybe 1/2 an inch ) Friday into Saturday morning, it is GAME ON. Southerly winds will bring enhanced rainfall with rates of 1/2 to 1 inch per hour. Rain totals will be 2 to 4 inches on south faces ( yes that’s us)
Saturday the core of the low is right over us. This is when it really gets crazy with hail, snow, and small tornados possible. The system clears out Saturday afternoon then, Sunday we have a dry day, before another storm Monday and Tuesday with around another inch of rain and snow. As far as the best time for snow in the local mountains. Thursday night through Saturday morning is the most likely.
Areas above 4000 feet, 2 to 4 FEET of snow. This will be the coldest system since 1989, I personally remember the 1998 system where we got snow at my house in Santa Ynez.
It was the coolest thing I have ever seen at 1000 feet. Enjoy the ride, we will send photos from all my good friends as the fun occurs. (send me photos to share please )
Have a great cool day, we will make National news 😊
Have a great Cold day.
Jack Martin
2/21/23
Good Tuesday morning,
Today we will start out calm, but wind and cold air is coming this afternoon.
You can see this system diving south out of Cold Alaska.
https://zoom.earth/#view=38.7,-122.7,4z/map=live
Everyone will feel the changes this afternoon, first with wind then cold, followed by wet.
The winds will begin to pick up on the central coast this afternoon and then arrive in our area later in the day and tonight. Winds from the north should be 35 to 45 miles an hour in our area, and mountains 50 to 60 miles an hour. Some LA mountains 80 miles gusts possible an hour.
Overnight the snow level will drop to 1500 to 2000 feet, with a light dusting of snow possible in the mountains, but the air is still pretty dry, so a dusting is all that is affected. Wednesday the winds will calm, but it will still be breezy. It will be chilly with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s and 40s.
Thursday we will start to see the rain chances increase, but it is Friday and Saturday when we get the real rain. The models are in fair alignment with the lows trajectory being over the water. This means a good storm Friday and Saturday. Rain is projected 2 inches coastal and 4 inches in the mountains. Snow above 4000 feet will be measured in the feet. 12 to 18 inches above 4000 feet. The snow level Friday night will drop to 2000 to 2500 feet.
Models are still figuring out Saturday into Sunday. They can not decide if the rain will end Saturday afternoon or go into Sunday. Regardless this will be a good storm with another slated for Tuesday into Wednesday next week.
Where February has been very quiet for rain – snow, it will go out with a bang.
Remember all those tarps all over town, well it is time to check them Wednesday after wild winds tonight. March is fast approaching, but the end of February will cast memories with very low snow levels.
………… Is Spring coming soon? For the record, I am read!
Enjoy the Action!
Jack Martin
2/20/2023
Good Monday morning,
The best way to start the new week is to look at Lake Cachuma from an airplane.
thanks, Bro, what a great site, from a puddle to a full lake.
Now this week’s weather, it is going to be a very interesting week.
Today not a lot of excitement, just a calm day and likely the only calm day of the week.
Tuesday the wild weather begins. The next is a very cold system that arrives with 2 punches. first is the wind, and it will be wild. 35 to 45 miles an hour Tuesday night. 65 to 70 miles an hour over Ventura and LA.
Winds die sometime on Wednesday and then we welcome the bitterly cold weather. It will be 10 to 20 degrees below normal. The forecast shows a 40% chance of snow on the grapevine and showering anywhere…. still some wind and highs will only get into the 50s.
Thursday through Sunday the weather really becomes interesting. snow levels look to drop to 1000 to 1500 feet. That means snow almost anywhere.
The new twist to the forecast is the low-pressure system is now looking to be over the water. This will or can substantially increase the chances of lots of rain.
If this scenario continues, we are looking at rain through the weekend and in the amount of 2 to 5 inches. Yes, that’s quite a storm. This is still a little early to break out the snow gear, but we will need to watch if the models continue to follow this pathway.
In the meantime, calm today, with lots of wind Tuesday and Tuesday night, followed by moderate wind and showers Wednesday. after that STAY TUNED …
It might get really interesting
Jack Martin
2/16/23
Good Thursday morning,
Another week is flying by, but this morning bitter cold out there. For those of you waking up and Santa Ynez 28° Santa Barbara 40°. Other than the cold temperatures the next three days really are pretty much uneventful.
The low-pressure system that was going to be coming in for the weekend is looking to not really affect our weather much.
Friday morning we will wake up to a little warmer temperatures, but still some frost and freeze in the valleys.
The weekend looks to be sunny here and slightly warmer. Nothing over the top, but I’ll take what we can get.
The extended forecast for next week it’s looking for dry the first half of the week and then all models are hinting towards a substantial storm at the end of the week, which will result in a few days of rain. This is still a ways out, but we will need to keep an eye on this as we get into early next week.
Highs this weekend should be around 65 with Lows in the mid-40s in Santa Barbara and low 40s in Santa Ynez valley.
Stay tuned for next week’s forecast and updates.
Jack Martin
2/14/23
Happy Valentine’s Day,
If you have not remembered this or have not gotten your spouse a present or flowers this is a fair warning for you. Personally, I love Costco and I order roses weeks ahead of time.
Valentine’s weather will be chilly and windy all day. Winds will be 20 to 35 miles an hour. With a high of 59 degrees.
Tonight the cold air will really bare down on us as valleys will see freezing temps. 4 inches of snow could fall on the grapevine. Here in Santa Barbara, just a bitterly cold night and morning.
Wednesday through Friday if you are expecting warmer weather then you will be disappointed. Highs will only get into the low 60s with cooler nights.
The weekend is looking unstable with a rain chance and a cut-off low possible. Rain, where it does fall, will be 1/2 inch or less.
This weekend is another holiday weekend that only schools, banks, and government celebrates. Normal businesses just wake up Monday and go to work and learn that another Presidents’ Day holiday has come and gone.
Have a great Valentine’s Day, dress warm or snuggle because chilly and windy are the words of the day.
Jack Martin
2/12/23
Good Superbowl Sunday,
Hope everyone is ready for a fun game and day. I found it very interesting that some schools were going to start late because of Superbowl festivities.
Here in SOCAL, the weather system that brought us wind is now 100 miles south of us https://zoom.earth/ This really has done nothing but brought us wind and chilly weather.
Monday through Wednesday will bring cooler weather with lows in the 40s and highs in the low 60s, some areas to the north will struggle to even hit 60 as a high.
Tuesday night the wind arrives again as another inside slider rolls through Wednesday the cold is here again with freezing temps in valley areas.
The rest of the work week is continued cooler weather through Friday.
The weekend is looking like another chance of rain. Models do differ at this point, but it is pointing toward rain with a system coming down the coast and staying offshore.
The bottom line it will be a cool week, and those high Gas bills will continue because of the cold weather. “ I laugh when I talk about the 60s being cold “
Instead of giving all that money to the gas company, we give it to the state of California. I would rather give it to the gas company 😊
Enjoy the Superbowl, this should be a great game.
Have a great week, March is a little over 2 weeks away
Jack Martin
2/10/23
Good Friday morning,
I hope everybody enjoys the great weather. We had yesterday all about the change after today. Tonight start to see some high clouds moving in and everybody has a slight chance of rain on Saturday, but the biggest effect will be the cold weather. Rain is more likely on the central coast than in Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara’s colder weather.
Super Bowl Sunday looking at cooler weather with a little bit of wind but overall a fair day.
Next week it’s like an inside slider with extremely cold weather and wind some areas we’ll see the 20s for Lows. Sundowner Winds are likely in Santa Barbara, Tuesday and Wednesday. Rain is not likely.
Today will be the last warmer day enjoy
Jack Martin
2/7/23
Good Tuesday Morning,
High pressure is creating a dome around us today, there is a weather system to the north, but not below SF https://zoom.earth/
It is mighty chilly out there to start your day. Waking up in the Santa Ynez valley it is a cold 32 degrees and in Santa Barbara a chilly 42 degrees.
The good news is we are starting a nice warm-up for the next 3 days, today is only slightly warmer but for each day to follow 70s is in our forecast.
Today we will see highs a few degrees warmer with the mid-60s and tonight slightly warmer with the mid-40s.
Wednesday Northeast winds and warming temps for all. Everyone will start to see low 70s and sunny skies. This is the start of the first heatwave of 2023.
Thursday is the warmest day of the week with the mid to upper 70s for all. Enjoy the outdoors at lunch or all day if you’re lucky enough.
Friday is still a great day with slightly cooler temps. Highs are still around 70.
Saturday a low-pressure system approaches, it is still not 100% clear what this will do, at this point, it looks to be dry, but much cooler.
We will have to see where this tracks to over the next few days, there still could be some showers Saturday.
Superbowl Sunday is cooler but slightly warming into the mid-60s and dry. A sweatshirt might be in order for outdoor parties.
Next week it still looks to be dry but cooler through midweek, with no rain in site at this point.
At lake Cachuma, the water level is almost 100% at 99.8%, just about ready to top, it is likely a release is in the future.
Enjoy the great warm weather for the next 4 days, especially Thursday.
Jack Martin
2/6/23
Good Monday Morning,
The system has passed as everyone felt the winds last night. It blew hard at my house, today the system is moving East. https://zoom.earth/
Today is starting out warmer than expected, with 41 in the valley and 53 in Santa Barbara. Today will be cool with highs in the mid-60s.
Tuesday high pressure and offshore flow build in. Temps will rise slightly, but the real warm weather is to come.
Wednesday, warmer and 70s for all with the offshore flow.
Thursday will be the warmest day of the week with temps 4 to 8 degrees above normal and mid-70s.
Friday, we cool slightly, but still a nice day.
The weekend looks for cloudy skies, but the models are now backing off any chance of rain. Of course for selfish reasons we want the weather to be nice for outdoor Superbowl parties
have a great week.
Jack Martin
2/3/23
Good Friday morning,
Today we will see lots of high clouds as a weak system will pass to the North bringing rain from San Francisco to northern SLO. Only high clouds here https://zoom.earth/
Saturday we will have a pop-up ridge which will make it the warmest day in the next 7 days. highs in the upper 60s.
Saturday night a slightly stronger system approaches and moves Saturday ridge to the East. This will result in rain in SLO with ¼ of an inch and ½ in the mountains.
As it approaches point conception it really weakens and will only create light rain for us. We are looking at around 1/10 inch maybe ¼ of an inch in the hills.
This is very weak with no southern support.
Sunday will be breezy and cool. Highs will be in the low 60s to upper 50s.
Next week we are looking at dry weather all week. Monday through Wednesday northeast Santa Ana winds and some warming. Thursday is dry, but the models can’t decide whether it will be windy or just warming. Needless to say, we will see very little rain Sunday and nothing beyond that.
Take a look at Lake Cachuma at 99.3% as of yesterday https://files.countyofsb.org/pwd/hydrology/Rainfall%20Reports/rainfallreport.pdf
Jay provides a great photo of the dam at Cachuma, it is just amazing.
Have a great weekend, Saturday should be the best day to get outside
Jack Martin
2/2/23
Good Thursday morning,
Today we’re looking at dry weather with some high clouds showing up ahead of a week front that is moving down the coast. This will do nothing more than give us high clouds and no rain. Offshore flow is still holding together today with winds of 15 to 25 miles an hour from the Northeast.
Friday ridge is built-in and it will remain nice through Saturday.
Saturday night another slightly stronger system will pass through and create some rain for all. It really has no southern component so rain on the central coast is up to half an inch but as it rounds point conception. Any rain that occurs in Santa Barbara it’s going to be a very light quarter inch or less. Sunday night we’re looking at North-winds fairly strong.
Monday and Tuesday we’re looking at offshore flow warming temperatures and nice weather
Wednesday the jury is still out but it’s looking dry.
Overall, we have very little rain in sight for the next week mostly dry, with only some light rain overnight Saturday into Sunday morning. It should be mostly dry Sunday.
Have a great day
Jack Martin
2/1/23
Good Wednesday morning,
February 1st, and a start of a new month. Today most are waking up to a chilly start to the day. 34 in Santa Ynez and 45 in Santa Barbara. The good news is offshore flow will warm us up nicely to around 70 degrees for a high. That will be a nice change once it warms up.
Thursday looks to be another chilly start, but warming into the upper 60s in the afternoon with some high clouds starting to flow as offshore turns to onshore.
Friday a weak system rolls through, no rain for us, possibly a little in far northern SLO.
Saturday a ridge pops up for a decent day but Saturday night the next system rolls towards us. This system is stronger and will likely drop some rain all Sunday morning. This is weaker with rainfall of 1/2 inch or less. It will be over by Sunday afternoon.
Next week is looking dry at this point with at least the first half of the week with sunny skies.
On the lakeside Cachuma is at 99% now and still filling slowly. Nacimiento still 86%.
I can’t wait to be able to drive past the lake and see all the water. https://files.countyofsb.org/pwd/hydrology/rainfallreport.pdf
Have a great day!
Jack Martin