2/28/19
It is the last day of February and we have had quite an active weather month.
Yesterday the rain started out quiet, but as the day went into the evening, the rain picked up.
We received close to 3/4 of an inch yesterday.
Where this was not a heavy rain. It certainly will keep all the creeks flowing.
https://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/images/countyPrecipMaps/santabarbara_24HRprecip.png
Today will be cool and cloudy. Any rain chances should go away in the next few hours.
Friday, a weak ridge for the day. Then Friday night, the next system rolls in.
Saturday’s system is beginning to look better once again, as the models bounce back and forth.
Rain will begin overnight Friday into Saturday. It looks like we will see steady rain till around noon, then turn to showers in the afternoon.
This system does look to have some subtropical moisture, so rain totals will be higher.
Looks like 3/4 to 1 1/2 inch out of the Saturday system.
Sunday is looking dry, and we will see some sun. This will also trend into our Monday remaining dry.
Tuesday will start out ok, but the next system is looking to arrive 12 hours faster.
As the day comes to a close, we will see clouds rolling in.
Rain will start up again over night into Wednesday.
This 3rd system looks to have some subtropical moisture, so it might be a good rain maker.
Similar to Saturday’s rain….
March is looking to start out like February, with lots of Rain.
Enjoy, keep the sweatshirt handy, temps will remain below normal.
2/27/2019
Good Wednesday morning.
Another rainy Wednesday. I have not been keeping track, but I think Wednesdays the entire month of February have been wet.
Today will be no different. This next system will be on the weaker side. It also appears we will have a little time this morning to button up some work.
Rain is in SLO right now and moving south into Sant Maria.
Looks like the Santa Ynez Valley will see rain around 9 am and Santa Barbara around 11 am.
Rain really dies out in Ventura county. The national weather service has also lowered the rain totals for this storm.
They are now calling for 1/3 to 2/3 for SLO and Santa Barbara county. Ventura and LA 1/10 to 1/4.
Tonight, the rain taper to showers. Thursday, there is still a slight chance of rain in the AM, but should be mostly dry.
Friday will be a dry day, with the next storm is approaching Friday night.
Rain Saturday and showers Sunday remains in the forecast, however the National weather service is backing off on the size of the storm.
They are now calling for another 1/3 to 2/3 of an inch. Not a lot of rain, just enough to mess up any outdoor activities.
Monday and Tuesday is looking to be dry. Then Wednesday next week, they are talking about another system.
It is interesting the way the National weather service spells out the 8 day forecast. Quote “one should never really trust the 8 day forecast.”
That is so true, systems that are forming in the Pacific ocean can change easily in 7 or 8 days. Look at what has happened in the last week.
At one time it was big, then medium, now smaller.
Just Know it will be Wednesday, so based on trends, we will likely see rains …….
In the mean time enjoy the rain on this Wednesday.
2/26/19 Weather Update
Good Tuesday morning,
If you are going to northern California or the Sierras today, it is going to be wet and snowy.
For the Sierras, they are setting up to break records for snowfall for the season. The AR is going to be right over them through the day, before it begins to drop south.
Looks like they will see 2 to 4 inches of rain and a few feet of snow. (what are they doing with all that snow )
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
For us, we will see high clouds. Then as it turns to the night, the rain in the Bay areas drops to the south.
Rain will start up in the central coast around midnight, then drop south. Rain will start up in the Valley around dawn and arrive in Santa Barbara around 8am.
Rain totals are going too high north of point conception, 1 to 1 ½ inch, 2 to 3 in Butte.
For Santa Barbara we are looking for a little more now, ½ to 1 inch.
Ventura to LA around 1/3 to ½ inch.
Rain turns to showers on Wednesday late, Thursday also has a chance for a few showers.
Friday is looking dry, then Friday night through the weekend looks to be wet.
Thee weekend was advertising the Atmospheric river, but the models are now backing off some.
Bottom line we will see rain, but there is now chatter of a lighter or moderate river. ( what ever that means )
The fact really is, we will know more as it gets closer. ( like Thursday)
The next system will bring us more rain, then Wednesday’s system. Saturday appears to be the wettest day, then Sunday with showers.
Ok, enjoy …. February is looking to break records with the coldest month of February on record for our area.
2/25/19
Good Monday morning,
So much for the forecast of a dry week.
Take a look, there is lots of Action that will begin to affect Northern California tonight.
You can see the spinning low. It is also pulling the subtropical moisture from Hawaii into Northern California.
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?prod=XXXAFDLOX&wfo=LOX
Rain is back in the forecast for Tuesday night on the central coast. Then sagging south on Wednesday affecting us.
The Tuesday night through Wednesday night system is going be felt the most over the central coast.
They will see 1/2 to 3/4 of a inch. Northwest foothills can see 1 1/2 inches.
For us locally, Santa Barbara will se 1/4 to 1/2 inch. Ventura south 1/10 to 1/4.
Thursday, possible a few light showers, then sunny.
Friday will be dry, with a weak ridge popping over us.
Saturday the wet weather is back. Exact timing is unclear, but it is looking like the AR.
Atmospheric river will be over central and Southern California.
If models are correct, this will bring us heavy rain, with south winds. Santa Barbara will get the most.
Rain chances are through the weekend.
We will give the national weather service a few days to determine how much we will see.
It can be significant.
Enjoy 2 dry days, with just some high clouds. Then rain arrives.
Let’s Fill that Lake….
2/24/19 Sunday Weather
Good Sunday morning,
It now is looking like we will see some rain on Wednesday. It will be on the lighter side, but the rain will likely sag far enough south to affect our areas with some rain.
For your Sunday, we will have a nice day with a high in the low 60s.
Monday, another day like Sunday.
Tuesday, the clouds will start to stream into the area. Rain will stay to the north.
Tuesday night the rain will start up over the central coast, then move south.
Wednesday looks like we will see rain. This will be on the lighter side for Santa Barbara, maybe ¼ of an inch. The central coast will see a little more rain around ½ inch.
Some showers may linger into Thursday.
Friday is looking dry.
Saturday, the next chance of rain. Actually is a ways out there to know what will really happen. We will watch this as the week progresses.
Speaking of Saturday, I got a little excited about daylight savings time. It is not next Saturday night, it is the following March the 10th.
2 more weeks. The good news is the days are getting longer. Sunrise 6:28 am – sunset 5:45 pm.
More fun facts.
The equinox is March 17th . this is 12 hours of sun and 12 hours of darkness.
Lake Cachuma is 61.3%, Nacimiento 68% and still rising ….
Have a great day!
2/23/19 Saturday
Good Saturday morning,
The chill continues. Waking up this morning in Santa Ynez, it is a chilly 30 degrees. Santa Barbara and Montecito, 42 degrees.
Any way you look at this, it’s like a winter blast of cold. I know folks that live in the Midwest and east coast would laugh at me by saying this.
However us in Southern California are just not use to this cold.
Last night I was driving home from my office at around 5:30 and the sun was still up. We are gaining more day light each day.
One week from today, daylight savings is back. We gain an hour of day light in the evening.
That’s great news for all outdoor activities. Also, can you believe February is almost over.
Just 5 days until March the 1st.
As far as the weather goes, we are dry through Tuesday and likely through Friday.
Last night when I turned on the TV, they were talking about rain Tuesday night into Wednesday.
I said what!!. That was not in my forecast Friday ….
Well there is a slight chance for rain, but at this point it is not likely south of point conception.
Rain will likely stay Santa Ynez and north. Even there rain will be light.
Today through Tuesday looks to be nice weather. Sunny for the most part, but still cold with below normal temps.
Tuesday night into Wednesday, a system in the pacific north west will drop southward.
This will bring some rain, but mainly north of point conception.
Thursday and Friday will be nice, and it even looks like we will finally have a day with temps to normal.
It even looks like we may keep the streak of below normal temps for the entire month of February.
Not sure if there is any record there, but no global warming in February.
Saturday looking out there in the long range, looks like another system, with a fair possibility of rain for all.
Ok, that’s the story. Got this all done before 5 am. Ready to launch Saturday.
Enjoy the weekend !
2/22/19 Calm Weather Ahead
Good Friday morning,
It has been a wild month of February, with crazy storms. This last system was very exciting for some.
However, Santa Barbara missed all the ACTION.
Areas to the north, Santa Maria, SLO, and Santa Ynez all saw 1/2 of a inch. We saw 2/100.
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/lox/scripts/getlocal.php?prod=LAXRRMSBA
The most exciting part was yesterday, when that red cell went through Nipomo.
Gordon sent me some photos, then Andy came through with the video.
WOW!! I hope it went through to all, that was crazy. It is nice to have our team sharing photos and videos with All.
Now we can just settle in, watch temps begin to rise, however they will start out really cold. Some of you are waking to 20s and 30s.
Chill and below normal temps will prevail through the weekend.
We will see more sunshine and dry weather through the next week. The good news is we get a full week with a break.
Temps will begin to rebound next week and we will get close to mid 60s for highs.
That will be a treat, because I am not used to this cold stuff.
Hope everyone has a great dry weekend.
Thanks to all for photos and videos. It makes my text more interesting.
Here are a few more. The radar is from the area where the hail storm landed on the 101 yesterday.
Keep the photos coming.
2/21/19 Wintery Forecast
Good Thursday morning,
Winds last night blew pretty hard from the north. This is thanks to a low pressure system spinning over Nevada right now.
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/weus/h5-loop-wv.html
This is an extremely cold system that is working its way south today. It has very little moisture with it, and north winds will prevent most of SB from seeing much precipitation.
With that being said, there will still be showers today. These will occur throughout the day. Not much, but we will have some showers. Maybe ¼ of a inch, mainly over the mountains.
We will hope that snow may be seen at sunrise. Snow levels today can actually get as high as 1000 feet. Possible as low as 500 feet.
We will see what the day brings us.
The greatest chance for rain or snow is actually over Orange county and San Diego today as the rotation can pull some moisture off the ocean.
The cold weather will continue for us through the weekend, but rain chances will end tonight.
Friday through the weekend looks to be cold, but dry. Next week is setting up to be dry through the week, with some warming each day.
As the week progresses, we might even have temps back to normal for the time of year.
Here is the radar, showing showers over the hills. Pretty much dyeing out as it gets over the mountains of Santa Barbara.
Enjoy the chill and snow!!!! in some locations.
Check out the photo from Marco Farrell. Tide pools at Gaviota with the Snow moon in the background.
Marco also has a great face book page.
Great news, lake Cachuma is over 60% now …… also Naciemento is 67%!!!
https://rain.cosbpw.net/site.php?site_id=105&site=70729dd9-97d4-430a-9271-7b6c195b49be
http://www.co.monterey.ca.us/home/showdocument?id=22189
2/20/19 Snow Forecast
Good Wednesday morning,
Before starting my report for today, I wanted to share a quick story.
Last night I meet with an old friend, from back in the day when I was a weather spotter.
Mike is a lead forecaster at the national weather service in Oxnard.
We go back to around 1990 when we were both quite young.
It was great talking about the good old days, when him and Gary taught me about weather.
Mike recently moved to SB. He also has started a weather website for our area.
He takes the facts from the national weather service and makes it easy to navigate through it.
For those who want more than my translation, check it out.
http://www.805weather.com/
Now the weather…..
Here comes the next very cold system. The feature of this low pressure system is not the wind or rain, but the cold air it brings with it.
This system is diving south out of Canada right now. North to south flow over land is going to be moisture starved.
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
This will make for unstable air, but very limited rain and snow.
For areas like Santa Barbara, the south facing mountains are going to block the rain showers.
The best we can hope for is some white on the hillside of San Marcus Pass.
The moisture that does fall with this, is more likely in Santa Ynez and Lompoc.
Rain chance start up in the central coast later this morning, then move south this afternoon.
I do not expect more then some sprinkles today or tonight for SB.
Over night into Thursday, the colder air arrives.
This will make the atmospheric unstable, so showers can pop up anywhere through Thursday.
Snow levels will drop to 2500 feet over night Wednesday and down to 1500 feet on Thursday.
This will be the coldest system to date this season.
Personally I would love to see snow on mountains and if we get to 1500 feet Santa Ynez could see some at lower elevations.
I only remember one time this happened in 1999. I had 3 inches of snow at my house in the valley.
Regarding rain or snow. Lower elevations could see 1 to 3 inches. Rain will be a trace to 1/4 of a inch.
Higher totals are likely in thunderstorm locations, which are possible ..
All in all this event is more about the cold than anything.
Friday we clear out for the next 5 days. Warming some each day, but still unseasonable cold.
There is some chatter about something mid week, but that’s way too far out to even start a discussion.
In the mean time, let’s hope for some snow. Best chances for this is overnight Wednesday and Thursday.
Have a great Day …
Super Snow Moon Setting Just Before Sunrise
Wow, the snow moon is beautiful.
thanks Adam
2/19/2019
Good Tuesday morning,
The good news is the wind has died down. The bad news is it’s bitter cold outside.
Better dress real warm to start the day. Yes, gloves, hats and extra layers are needed today.
Today we be sunny and dry. Of course cold!!
Tonight another cold night, but a few degrees warmer then Monday night.
Wednesday will be fair, but the next system will start to bring clouds during the day.
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
This is a very cold system, coming out of the gulf of Alaska. This will drop south and will create some precipitaion late morning for central coast and later in the afternoon for Santa Barbara and Ventura. This is a cold system, so clouds can not contain a lot of water. Rain or snow fall will be light.
Snow levels will drop to 2500 feet Wednesday night. Showers are likely.
Thursday the colder air arrives and will bring the snow level to 1500 to 2000 feet.
Any precipitation will be showery and lights. Just like Sunday’s system.
Friday we clear out and start out cold. The good news is we will begin to warm up a little.
Dry weather is predicted through next Thursday at this point.
Bundle up with clothes, it is cold Santa Ynez is 30 degrees, Goleta 37 right now.
Thanks Kirk, check out the changes 1 year brings with the snow pack.
We will give Kirk a plug, he runs our solar division. If you are interested in solar, call Kirk with Action Energy at 805-896-3776.
This is the last year for the 30% tax credit, then it is reduced
2/18/19
Good Monday morning,
It is bitter cold out there. Good thing Kids and some working kids get a day off.
For all the rest of us, you will want heavy coats and gloves this morning.
All windshields and Roofs will have Ice.
Skies are relatively clear and it is bright out there with the full moon overhead.
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
We will have 3 dry-cold days. Today is the last day of wind for a few.
Wednesday night into Thursday we are looking at a weak- cold storm. Snow levels will be at or below 2000 feet.
As far as precept goes. Model runs are showing less. Maybe some showers and dusting of snow on the mountains.
This will be another system like Sundays. North flow keeps most of the rain-snow out of SB.
Yesterday we barely saw a trace, where Santa Ynez saw 1/3 of a inch. This is do to the north facing mountains.
Thursday will do the same.
Friday winds turn to the northwest and it will be cold. All week we will struggle to get out of the 50s for a high.
Nights will be cold. Low 40s coastal with some 30s .
In the valleys…. 20s at night …..
The weekend looks to be dry, with highs might making it to 60 degrees.
Have a great day, stay Warm!
Sunday Chill 2/17/19
Good chilly morning,
Sorry for my little screw up with group… all fixed now…. Too early in the morning I guess… I had a brain freeze from the cold out there …
I meant to hit the send button to myself and as I hit it …. I said oh shit… sent that to the group…
Now the weather, cold and windy out there today. The jet stream is pushing well to the north and then turning the cold air back at us.
Take a look:
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
This means north-cold winds. The low pressure will create showers to the North, but this is moisture starved.
Any rain will be squeezed out of the cold air. The best chance of rain will be to the north of us. North winds tend to block showers in Santa Barbara.
Santa Ynez and north faces are likely to see rain and snow. Everyone will be cold …..
Snow levels are at 3500 feet today, then dropping to 1500 to 2500 tonight.
The mountains will likely get a dusting of snow. 1 to 2 inches in lower elevations (the Pass) higher elevations up to 8 inches.
Cold weather remains all week. Monday through Wednesday will be cold, but Dry.
Wednesday night – Thursday, another extremely cold system drops in. This is also moisture starved. This will bring a weak system with rain and snow.
Friday through the weekend is looking dry, with Saturday and Sunday maybe hitting 60 degrees high.
Bottom line cold all week…
Saturday Chill Forecast 2/16/19
Good Saturday morning,
North winds are blowing out there, with chilly temps.
Today, we are looking at no rain in Santa Barbara as north flow creates a rain shadow over Santa Barbara. For Santa Ynez, there may still be a slight chance for a shower, but it should be mostly dry.
For the chill however, it will be unseasonably cold. Highs will make it into the 50s.
Tonight, another system rolls into the forecast area. This is extremely cold.
Sunday, we are looking at some rain or snow at higher elevation. This is not a big system, but we will see some showers. 1/4 inch of rain. 3/4 on north facing mountains or snow of 3 to 5 inches. Highs will be in the 40s in the valleys and low 50s coastal.
Sunday night, snow levels will be between 1500 and 2500 feet. Hoping to see snow in the local mountains.
Monday, another bitter cold day, but dry.
Tuesday and Wednesday high pressure builds in and dry chilly days and nights will be the norm.
Thursday, another really cold system drops south. This will bring snow levels to 1500 to 2000 feet. As far as precept goes, it will be lite with 1/4 inch or less expected
Extended beyond Friday is not clear, but Friday will be windy and dry.
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
Bottom line, it is winter in California. I do not remember weather like this month for many years. It is exciting to see wintery weather in our backyards. Also with Lake Cachuma totals climbing we are all happy.
Break out the winter parkas. It is cold out there.
Fun Facts:
If Cachuma goes up 33 more feet, it will be at spill level. Cachuma is at 58% this morning.
Rain fall for the year to date is 125% to 160% above normal.
For the season, most areas have received 100% of normal for the year.
February has been below average temps the entire month, and it appears the next week will do the same.
Nacimiento is at 61%.
Snow pack is at 136% of normal.
Mammoth has a base snow level of 140 inches and at the top 210 inches, Tahoe 107 to 184 inches.
San Marcas pass has 35.94 inches of rain this season to date, 13.05 inches this month. Santa Barbara has 18.56 this month 7.14.
2/15/2019 Forecast
Good Friday morning,
It is looking like a few more days of unsettled weather through Sunday.
The 2 day rain totals were right on track with what was expected.
San Marcos Pass had over 3 inches, Montecito 1 1/2, SB received an inch, and Patty in Santa Ynez also saw an inch of rain.
Today a colder system will bring light showers to the area.
Looking like the greatest chance of rain is this afternoon as the low over Oregon drops into California this afternoon.
1/4 inch for SB, 1/2 inch for northern locations. Snow levels around 5000 feet.
There are some showers approaching the central coast as you read this:
Saturday will be chilly, but mostly dry. Snow levels will be 3500 feet.
For my granddaughters first birthday party outdoors in Solvang, we will need to dress in winter clothes.
Sunday!! Look out. This is going to be extremely interesting to watch.
Not so much for rain, but expect snow and cold temps. Snow levels will drop to 1500 to 2000 feet.
Temps in the valleys and patty’s house will be in the teens Sunday night. Coastal areas even the 30s are likely.
There will also be some rain and snow showers. The Pass will see snow in areas.
Monday will be a great day to wake up and look into the hills over San Marcos Pass.
We will likely see a rare white in our hills. Brett and Adam get your cameras ready.
Next week is going to be another very cold week. Looks like mostly dry, but cold.
Another storm system will approach late in the week, but it appears to be on the lighter side.
If you are traveling on the Interstate 5 Sunday, you might get stuck. Snow there is likely.
Have a nice weekend, it will be cold and wintery Sunday with snow down to 1500 feet.
Lake level is 55.4% at Cachuma and rising
https://rain.cosbpw.net/site.php?site_id=105&site=70729dd9-97d4-430a-9271-7b6c195b49be
san Antonio and Nacimiento are climbing also. 55% at Nacimiento
https://www.co.monterey.ca.us/home/showdocument?id=22189
Lake level is 55.4% at Cachuma and rising.
2/14/19 Thursday Forecast
Good Thursday morning,
Yesterday’s system did not drop much rain along the coastal areas, but all you had to do is look into the mountains and you saw the rain most of the day.
The hills received quite a bit more.
Don’t be lulled to sleep, today is going to be much different.
The atmospheric river is pointed straight at us. The rain totals will climb quickly today.
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
We will start to see the rain pick up by 7am and continue into the afternoon before it starts to let up.
Rain will turn to showers. We will also see lots of wind with this system.
South facing mountains will see 2 to 3 inches today. Coastal 1 to 2 inches. Snow levels will be above 6000 feet. So not any snow for us.
Friday looks to be wet, but showery. As another system rolls through. Expect 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rain with this one.
Saturday looks to be mostly dry, but showers are possible.
Sunday the last cold system comes through.
This is the coldest with snow levels dropping to around 4000 feet. The Grapevine might even see some snow, making for a rough Sunday on the interstate 5.
Expect light amounts of rain with most areas seeking another 1/4 to 1/2 inch.
This will mainly be in the afternoon when the coldest air arrives, make the atmosphere unstable.
Monday we get to mop up.
Looks like we will start to see a dry spell Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday still is not clear, but the northwest flow should keep us dry.
Ok, I am ready for some Action.
Let’s get the rain falling. Filling lake Cachuma and my pool.
I accidentally pumped to much water out of it the other day “ need the rain to bring the level back to normal 😬
Yesterday we only had ¼ of an inch coastal, but san Marcos pass had an inch of rain.
Lake Cachuma is at 52.4% today… it will climb quickly with the rain today.
Have a great day, you are going to get wet.
*** UPDATE ***
Here is Comes!
Did you just hear the thunder?
oh I also forgot … Happy Valentines Day to all …
Wednesday 2/13/19
Good Wednesday morning,
1 day before Valentine’s Day, in case you forgot.
I had to study the forecast a little harder today to understand what we have coming.
So here we go…
The rain is right off the coast. We should see rain by sunrise:
Rain will fall steady but lighter most of the day, then taper for a bit tonight. Today rainfall totals will remain lower.
With 1/2 to 3/4 coastal, but the water shed in the Santa Ynez mountains will see 1 to 2 inches.
The start of the system has no really big rain push to it. Subtropical plum does, however, extends all the way to Hawaii.
Tonight a slight lull in the Action, then the heavier rain will push in Thursday.
The exact area of where the low pressure system turn in is still not clear. It appears to be south of us.
At those locations the heaviest rain will fall. The window for the rain will be 40 mile each way or the point of entry. So 40 miles south and 40 miles north.
Those areas will receive the heaviest rainfall and totals. Rates in those areas will likely cause some flooding in areas on Thursday.
Friday does also look to be wet, but on and off showers. More over the hills, then spreading into the coastal areas.
Saturday looks to be the driest day, but there is still a chance of showers anywhere.
Sunday looks to be a little wetter, then Saturday with more showers.
Finally on Monday we should dry out. Looks like the beginning of the week will be dry.
As far as rain totals go… they will vary in areas but 1 to 2.5 inches coastal. 2 to 4 in the foothills.
Mountains can see 5 or so inches on east facing hills. This is between Wednesday and Thursday.
Friday and through the weekend, another 1/2 inch will fall in most areas.
As far as the wind goes, south facing mountains will see 60 mile an hour winds today.
Snow levels will be higher at around 6000 feet.
Ok here we go…. bring on the rain….
I will tweak the forecast for Thursday when we figure out where the main part of the low lands on the coast. Looking like LA will see the heaviest rain Thursday.
Enjoy more wet weather.
***UPDATE***
Take a look at this:
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
This is the subtropical moisture field. Look at how long it is…. aimed right over us.
Tuesday 2/12/2019
Good Tuesday morning,
It looks like we have a pretty good plan now for the next weather system.
Today will be the warmest day of the month to date. Oddly it will still be below normal temps for this time of the year.
What this means is, everyday this month has been below normal temps. This trend will likely continue for the next 7 days.
As far as rain goes, it looks like it will hold off until after midnight.
Light rain will start up in the central coast, then more south arriving in our back yard around dawn.
Here is what it looks like now:
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/weus/h5-loop-wv.html
Wednesday is going to be wet. The subtropical jet will be right over us.
Typically we could see heavy rain, but because of some east winds in the area this will keep the rain moderate with .25 to .50 per hour.
Rain will taper Wednesday night, then start up again on Thursday. Rain totals are still looking to be 1 to 2 inches coastal and 2 to 4 inches mountains.
Some south facing mountains can see greater than 4 inches.
This is all good, because spread light to moderate rain will keep the streams flowing right into Lake Cachuma. With no flooding.
Rain tapers off Friday with only a few showers possible.
The weekend looks to be mostly dry, some light showers are possible at times.
Monday we look to start a dry pattern. For how long is still to be determined, but at least the first 2 days.
Ok your up to date…. 20 hours before more rains fill our lakes …
Lake Cachuma is at 51.7% as of this morning.
2/11/2019
Good Monday morning,
February is proving to be an extremely wet month and this trend will continue another week. This past weekend, everyone saw another inch of rain between the 2 storms.
Starting out the week, we will have 2 days of dry, cold weather. Many of us are below the freezing mark this morning. Tonight is even going to be colder. There will be frost in most locations, except right along the coast Tuesday morning. Most of us will wake to frosty roofs.
Tuesday, things begin to change. There are 2 systems aimed at us:
1. Dropping down out of Alaska, now in Canada.
2. The other is west of the central coast moving to the east.
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/weus/h5-loop-wv.html
The southern end of the north system will combine with the system to the west and will create rain. The system to the north is quite cold, but the west system is warmer.
On top of the 2 lows is the subtropical jet. This is staged to help bring heavier rain.
Water values with the subtropical jet is 1.5. This May not mean much to you, but this value is extremely high.
Rain will start up late Tuesday night on the central coast and will be upon us early Wednesday morning.
Wednesday will be a wet day. Rain will be heavy at times.
We are looking at 1/2 to 1 1/2 inch coastal. With 2 to 4 inches in the mountains. These numbers may need to be tweaked as the system gets closer.
Snow levels with this one will be higher, 5000 to 7000 feet.
Rain will taper off Wednesday late. Then Thursday we are looking at more rain. As the next moisture field moves in.
Friday and beyond is not clear at this point. Models are not agreeing with each other.
So the national weather service is saying cloudy. That actually means nothing at this time. There is a possibility the rain can continue.
All this being said, we are in for another wet week. Rain totals will become more clear by Tuesday morning.
In the meantime, get ready for a good soaking.
I am still betting on Cachuma hitting 60% by Saturday.
Enjoy more rain.
We will see what the week of the 18th brings us.
Nice Rainbow….No Snow
Thanks Adam, that’s fantastic
2/10/19 More Rain
Good Sunday morning,
It is nice to be home writing the forecast from my desk at home. The rain is just starting up at around 4:30 am. I had to go out and cover patio furniture.
I have to say burr, it is cold outside. Snow level is around 3000 feet right now, so the best chance for us to see snow in the local SB mountains will be at day light.
Santa Ynez will see lots of snow on their local mountain. (Someone get a photo for me please.) I am sure Brett or Adam will send me a great pic of Santa Barbara hills.
Rain looks to fall through this morning. Clearing will begin around noon, but it will be cold… we are looking at 1/4 to ½ inch of more rain. Double that on south facing mountains.
It will be windy and cold in the hills. Snow level will start out at 3000 feet and rise to around 4500 feet today.
Cold – Cold tonight. Snow levels will be at 2500 feet overnight into Monday.
Monday and Tuesday are looking cooler, but dry. We will have 2 days of sunshine next week, then it all changes Tuesday night.
Rain will start up overnight Tuesday into Wednesday from north to south. Wednesday looks to be wet. Through the day into Thursday, all models are agreeing with that part of the forecast.
Beyond Wednesday, the forecast models are not sure. One keeps rain through Friday. The other shows rain through the period.
That part of the forecast period will need to be watched.
The system Wednesday is looking to be a fairly good rain maker, with some subtropical moisture helping to enhance rainfall. How much? Looking to be an inch or so. The next 24 to 48 hours will define the totals better.
Bottom line, we are in the heart of the rainy season. We have not seen this much rain in February in a long time, with more to come.
Lake Cachuma is at 51% now, and will continue to rise this next week. I will make a bold statement and say Cachuma will be at 60% by the end of the week.
That will be levels that we have not seen for?? a long time. (Someone can help me with those facts.)
Ok enjoy the rain, and snow for some …Bundle up. It is cold and wet outside.
Have a great Sunday….
2/11/19 Wet Saturday Morning
Good morning from sunny Miami, wet however in Santa Barbara.
Looks like everyone is seeing rain, with around 1/2 an inch so far in SB and 3/4 in points to the north.
Old man mountain did receive over an inch.
Showers will continue this morning, but the main front has moved through. We may see up to another 1/4 of a inch.
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-119.68093872070311&lat=34.4352305449399#.XF7HsxpOmfA
Things clear out this afternoon.
Then after midnight one more system arrive out of Canada. This will be a cold one, with snow levels to 2500 feet.
This is a more inland system, so not a lot of moisture with this one. Expect 1/4 of a inch and snow above 2500 feet.
This might give a great sight on Sunday morning with white stuff on ocean facing mountains. If this happens, it will be a real treat.
Rain clears out Sunday morning. Followed by clear skies through Tuesday.
Beyond Tuesday, the forecast models are all over the board.
They do not know when or how much we will see from mid week through Friday.
One model is calling for rain Wednesday, then Thursday and Friday.
The question on the atmospheric river is still in question. One model brings it further south over Mexico, and of course another shows it here.
Bottom line, we will need to figure this out into Monday.
In the meantime, enjoy wet weather and maybe snow for a few.
Have a great weekend, I land back in LA this afternoon.
Sunday I will be writting the forecast from santa Barbara.
Enjoy!
2/8/19 Good Friday Morning
I am proud to let everyone know that lake cachuma is now over 50%. That’s the good news from all the rain.
There is more rain to come. Looks like the next system will arrive tonight with a 3 to 6 hour period of rain.
This will be light to moderate, with rain rates of .25 per hour. Total accumulation of .25 to .50.
With some south winds, the Santa Barbara foothills could see as much as an inch:
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
Saturday day will be dry, but cold. Snow levels tonight will be around 4000 feet. Some snow in local mountains.
Late Saturday night into Sunday, the next colder system arrives. This has less moisture, but snow levels will be 2500 to 3000 feet.
We could even see some snow on the pass.
Monday through Wednesday day, looks like dry weather.
Wednesday afternoon through Thursday, we are looking at one more system.
The mid week forecast models are not in agreement at all when the rain will start or how much we will see. This will all need to be worked out over the weekend.
In the mean time, we will see 2 mild storms this weekend, allowing Cachuma to gain some more water…
All good news … enjoy the rain….
2/7/19 Good Thursday Morning
Here we are in the middle of a few dry days. Something we all appreciate. Looks like we will be dry through Friday Day.
Then Friday night, the next of 3 systems approach us.
Friday night into Saturday we are looking at a lighter storm system. We are going to receive ¼ to ½ inch of rain out of this system.
Skies clear out Saturday mid-day, then we will be dry until Sunday night.
This 2nd system is looking to be very cold, but moisture starved.
We will see some rain, but light amounts. Possible snow at higher elevations.
Monday and Tuesday look dry, possible Wednesday.
However, a larger system is to bring rain Wednesday into Thursday. Timing is still off, but rain will occur Wednesday later or Thursday.
We are still a ways out on this one, however, it is one to watch. This might be a good rain maker.
In the mean time, get ready for some rain, every few days …
Here is the view from the sky:
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
2/6/19 Wednesday Weather
Good Wednesday morning,
Hello from St Kitts. Really pretty here…
For you all, the rain is over until Friday night. We all have a few days to dry out.
Friday night is the next chance of rain. Then another shot on Sunday night. These are both weaker. We will see under ½ for each system.
As far as the extended forecast goes, the 8 to 9 day forecast is showing a strong system bringing more rain next Tuesday night into Wednesday.
That’s a long ways off, but something to watch.
Here is the forecast graphic:
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-119.6908264327794&lat=34.43477746723279#.XFrmq1xKhPY
Cachuma is getting close to 50%.
https://rain.cosbpw.net/site.php?site_id=105&site=70729dd9-97d4-430a-9271-7b6c195b49be
Brett that’s fantastic …
Thank you!
SY River
How long has it been since we have seen natural water flow in the Santa Ynez river?
This is a great site to see. I lived in the valley for 25 years, and seeing the river do this is great.
2/5/2019 Weather Report
Good Tuesday morning,
Looks like a little more rain today, but very showery in nature. The big story is the cold air and snow at lower elevations
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
Today the snow level starts out at 3500 feet and will drop to 2000 feet over night. This could bring snow to the top of the pass, and Santa Ynez mountains for sure.
Today’s rain will be showery, no subtropical support. This is also sliding down with a more inside or over land track. This means less rain. Maybe 1/4 of a inch.
Tonight it will be very cold with snow levels at 2000 feet for what is left with precept.
Wednesday through Friday still looks dry, but Thursday looks like some clouds will be around as a dry disturbance rolls though.
Friday night all models agree the rain is back. This is a run of the mill storm, so rain totals will be 1/4 to 1/2 inch. Rain will flow into Saturday morning. Clearing later in the day. Sunday looks dry.
We are approaching 10 inches of rain on the pass. I am sure we will top that today …
It has been the wettest 5 days I can remember in a long time ..
You deserve a break, even if it is for 2 1/2 days.
Cachuma is at 47% and climbing.
https://rain.cosbpw.net/site.php?site_id=105&site=70729dd9-97d4-430a-9271-7b6c195b49be
2/4/2019 Forecast
Good Monday morning,
Take a look at these rain total for the last 4 days so far. San Marcos Pass has over 8 inches so far with more to come….. today and Tuesday
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/lox/scripts/getlocal.php?prod=LAXRRMSBA
Right now it is raining pretty strong over Paso and SLO.
Rain will move over Patty’s house in Santa Ynez in the next few hours.
My house will see it soon after… 7 am.
Looks like we will see around another inch of rain today…. another 1/4 inch on Tuesday with double that on south facing mountains.
This system will be like Saturday’s, but it will be a mini version of it.
Expect rain rates to be 1/2 to 3/4 of an inch at the peak of the storm.
11 am at Patty’s house, noon in Santa Barbara, and 2 in LA.
Rain will taper in the early afternoon, then turn to showers Tuesday, one more round of showers, with another 1/4 of rain….
Finally Wednesday we get a 3 day break in the rain. Thursday will be the nicest day in the next 7.
Looks like another system brings us rain Friday night into Saturday. This however looks like a run of the mill storm.
Nothing like the past few. We will know more by Wednesday or Thursday.
In the mean time, rain for 2 more days. Cachuma keeps filling.
Here is lake Cachuma as of 8 am Sunday…
The lake has risen over 12 feet in the past 4 weeks. It is at 40.6% and climbing. We will have greater then 50% soon. We are 164% above normal for this time of year….looking good one more thing and good news for Montecito. Montecito seemed to hold up pretty well, but creeks were at there tops.
***UPDATE***
Thanks Adam,
This Cachuma real time link is pretty cool.
Lake is up 8 feet in the past 48 hours.
43.6% now & rising (707.3 feet now).
https://rain.cosbpw.net/site.php?site_id=105&site=70729dd9-97d4-430a-9271-7b6c195b49be
Good Sunday Morning 2/3/2019
Good Sunday morning,
What a day you all had on Saturday. Watching it from my devices is not the same as being there live.
As you wake up this morning, things are beginning to come back to normal.
It will be calmer today with only some showers.
However there is still lots of Action on its way.
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
We do have one more pretty good system that needs to pass through. Tonight through Monday, looks like another round of good rain. Rain will start back up over night and rain into Monday. Looks like another wet day, but rain intensity will be less.
This system will still give us good totals with 1 to 1 1/2 inch still to come.. higher amounts up in the mountains.
Tuesday looks like it will be like today. Cold, unstable air will cause showers at times. Not a lot of rain Tuesday, but it could rain at any time.
Wednesday through Friday, finally a break in the Action. We will need a few days to dry out.
Friday night into Saturday. They are now talking about rain on my Grand daughter’s outdoor birthday party. We will have to watch and see how that plays out. Still a ways to go on the 7 day forecast.
For now, we will focus on the rain for the next few days.
Monday morning, I will get some cachuma lake total.
In the mean time, enjoy your day. I am going to check out the Bahamas. We just docked here.
Go Rams!
2/02/2019 Saturday Wet
Good Saturday morning,
Well it is game on…. We have received around ¾ of an inch of rain so far, but the event is just starting.
The heavy rain is starting up in Santa Barbara right now. Heavy rain will fall from 4am to 10am in SB. 6am to noon Ventura and 7am into the afternoon in LA.
Here is the radar right now:
This is not about only heavy rain. South winds in the mountains have already been clocked at 70 to 80 miles an hour. Wind gusts along the coastal areas and foothills locally will be 50 miles an hour. This will only enhance the rain rates. It is going to be a wet and windy day. No reason to go outside today. Looks like the Ventura river will reach it banks around 2pm today. Other streams will also create flooding.
You are in for quite an event today.
Rain should taper this afternoon. Then we will see more rain through showers tonight.
Sunday will be more of the same. Sunday night the next system rolls in. This will bring rain through Monday. More showery in nature, but will add another ½ to ¾ of an inch.
Then comes Tuesday. Forecast models are now calling for more rain Tuesday.
This will give us rain 5 out of 6 days, before we get a break on Wednesday…
Be safe out there. You are in for a 6 hour E ride.
2/2/19 Update Before The Event
Here we go. 4:25pm your time 7:25pm mine. In my Miami office … “I thought that sounded pretty Cool. “
Really I am just heading on a cruise, but still working on the event and work stuff.
I figured I should at least give a update, before the event.
The real event will not start until after midnight, but some lighter rain will start up in a few hours.
This is the real deal.
The latest forecast indicates everything said earlier in the day, it is right in line with current time.
We are going to have a period of around 12 hours of real heavy rain.
This is the El Nino that we talked about for the past 6 months. subtropical moisture pushing into our area.
We are on track to see 4 to 7 inches on south facing mountains.
As I read on line, evacuation notices are in place and time to be out at 8pm.
It is the right thing for Montecito.
Hopefully it will be for not, but this is the test. You know how we all studied for tests…. In our younger lives.
Well this is the same. If we pass this one, we are going to the next level.
Lets keep our fingers crossed and the 93108 will be back to the old normal.
I will be watching from across the country.
Updates in the morning …
Be safe and talk to all in the morning.
2/01/2019
Good morning,
Are you ready for the biggest storm, we have seen this rainy season?
Today it is calm, with only high clouds until this evening, then the event begins.
It’s funny, I was trying to think what to call this, we will go with EVENT.
Rain will start out light this evening, and will pick up as the night continues. By around 4am the event really starts. It is going to blow and rain really hard. This is also going to be a prolonged event. With every update, the weather service has increased the rain totals. If there has been any storm to be aware of in Montecito, this will be the one…
yes, there is a flash flood watch. This means it might occur.” A warning means it is happening, at that point it is to late….”
I expect there will be evacuation in all burn areas. The area that is most in danger are the freshly burned areas, “not in our area..”
If I lived in Montecito, this is the one I would be concerned about… There will likely be some flooding and rocks plus mud.
The good part of this is we are ready with debris basins cleared. Rain rates will be ½ inch to 1.25 inch per hour
If you live in the flood area, I would suggest a hotel for tonight…
Here is what we are looking at…
Light rain to start around 6pm, rain will pick up as the night goes on. By 4am the heavy rain should arrive. We are looking at 4 to 7 inches on south facing mountains.
Yes Montecito. … Also winds are going to be from the south, 50 to 60 miles in the mountains.
Saturday, the rain continues through at least mid day. LA all day.
It now looks like we will see more rain Saturday night… after a short break.
This system will be the test. If we hold up with this one. I think life can go back to normal in the Montecito area.
We are hoping for that.
In the mean time, pack your bags.
Sorry to be so Frank, but that’s the way it is..
Let’s fill cachuma and have Montecito hold up from this powerful storm.
That’s a win win… I like win wins.
12 hours before the event begins.