2/27/17 Good Monday Morning
Here we go. This will be the last few days of February and one of the wettest months in history for our area.
Today there are a few showers out there, but most are in San Diego and will be over the mountains. For the most part it will be dry today, with only a chance of some light showers.
Tuesday and the last day of February will start an extended period of dry weather. As always the models are only accurate for around 5 days, then everything is a guess from there.
It does look like we will start a warm up on Tuesday through Friday. Looks like sunny, warm and above normal temps.
Saturday into Sunday will be dry, but models cannot decide at this point what will move in. Time will define this.
In the mean time we will dry out and start to enjoy California weather we all love
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
Enjoy the break, we can start to get some of those tarps off of roofs….Have a great week, daylight saving is less than 2 weeks away. Sunday march the 12th starts longer days.
2/20/17 Here We Go Again
We had a 24 hour break from the rain. Now it is back… this is a weaker system for our area, we are just getting the southern end of the system. Still not bad rain totals. We have received around 3/4 of an inch since last night.
“I remember when we used to call this a big storm “.
We are on the southern end of the Pineapple Express, but the best energy is in Nor-Cal. Coming down hard up there
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
As usual, the south flow will bring out more rain for Santa Barbara. Rain has been light to moderate. There will be some south winds today, but nothing like Friday. Rain will taper off after noon and turn to showers.
Rain will pick up again tonight, into Tuesday morning, as another plum of moisture will descend over us.
Tuesday afternoon should end the rain for a few days. With just cooler days and below normal temps.
Looks like dry through Saturday. Then another shot of rain late Saturday into Sunday. Models do not have a good handle on next weekend rain yet. So stay tuned.
Looks like more wet weather for the next day and a half.
FILL THAT LAKE…
Ok, I do not know about you, but we need a week off from the rain…
2/17/17 Here it Comes…
My Rain alarm clock went off at 3:30am . This meant it must be time to get up . Watch and listen to what Mother Nature can bring us…. this is only the beginning. Heavy rain started at 4am.
Winds are blowing hard from the south. Feels like 40 plus gusts at my little spot on the hill.
Of course, Pearl was up with me. Her normal routine is to eat ,then do her business. She was to scared of the wind to go outside. I might need to hold her paw !!
Here is what is coming right now…..
So now the forecast….
Today, Rain – Heavy – Very Wind from the south. Rainfall rates will be 1 inch per hour at times. Rates are now approaching 1/2 inch per hour…rain will continue all day and into tonight. The low is beginning to spin, which will enhance the rainfall.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-ft.HTML
Overnight rain will turn to showers, still heavy at times.
Showers will continue into most of Saturday. We will see on and off rain…
Sunday is looking good… sunny with no rain. It will give us a chance to view all the damage…Tree companies are going to be very busy….. There will be a lot of trees down.
If you live in the hills. OMG it is going to feel like a hurricane …. Brett you moved at the right time. A lot safer down in the city!!!
Monday another storm.. Weaker and not as much rain… Beyond!!! More rain possible Mid week.
The team at the national weather service are focused on the event of today instead of next week.
Batten down the hatches, this one is going down in the history books…..
2/16/17 Are You Ready ?!?
As I have been reporting for about a week now, this strong next system. This day has arrived. If you look at the link, there’s a rainbow of colors on the map.
This is, because we have all kinds of warnings and watches to come in the next 36 hour
Everything it on track. It is going to be a crazy Friday. Rain will be like many of us have never seen. For those of us that remember 2004 and 1995.This will be a storm like those. Every day the weather service keeps creeping up the totals. Now they are saying 5 to 10 inches in the hills and 4 to 6 coastal Santa Barbara.
Let’s start with today.
It looks like we have until noon, or shortly after before rain starts. This will be a moderate rain into tonight
After midnight tonight or early Friday morning. The flood gates open. We will see rain for 18 hours, well into Friday night. It will be heavy, and windy. Painted cave and hill top areas. 60 plus mile an hour winds from the south. Rainfall will be heavy, with rates of one inch per hour. Unlike other storms. The tap will not shut off. It will keep on raining.
Homes in the hills are going to get the wind and rain, sideways….Burn areas. Flooding…. I do not think camping at El Cap is a good idea .
Friday daylight will allow us to watch Mother Nature in Action….
Saturday will bring us showers…
Sunday clearing… maybe I will get on my new bike ….Paulo!!!
Monday another storm. Looking stronger now.. but nowhere near Friday’s system.
Tuesday night into Wednesday, still another system.
Lake Cachuma is at 17.8 % today… just watch that number climb over the next week.
As I mentioned a month ago… the drought is over……
Hang on, take a deep breath… it is going to be a wild ride….
2/14/17 Tuesday Weather Update
Good Tuesday morning,
The weather the last 2 days has been down right fantastic. Monday Santa Barbara had a high of 76 degrees.
Today it will cool by 10 degrees. This is thanks to an inside slider that will bring high clouds and a cooler day.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-ft.html
On Wednesday we bounce back to warmer temps for one day, as a weak off shore flow develops.
By Thursday morning we have a complete reversal of the weather. Rain will begin early Thursday morning. Thursday’s rain will be lighter.
On Friday, the flood gates open. You remember the catch phrase “Atmospheric River”. Well it is going to drop right over Santa Barbara, Ventura and LA. This is going to bring heavy rain, and wind for an 18 to 24 hour period. This system will have strong south flow, a negative tilt … all of this spells a Heck of a storm.
Santa Barbara will get hammered, with 4 to 8 inches over the coastal hills. Everywhere else 2 to 4 inches.
Saturday and Sunday will bring us showers, but not as much rain…the model predicting this forecast has stayed steady for the past few days. As long as there are no changes in the next day, we will be talking about flooding and mud slides.
How is that for a forecast, in California it is always more exciting.
One more Shout out to our Desal plant. Ready to go on line next month
2/9/17 Thursday Forecast
Good morning,
It is foggy in many areas this morning with low visibility. Be careful driving, and expect airport delays if traveling by air.
Today (Thursday), will be somewhat rain free. It will never really dry up, due to fog and minimal sun. Tonight the next system begins to move in. It is centered over Oregon -California border right now
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
This will dip to the south, pushing the moisture field right over us. Rain will, as usual start up north to south. Central California around 8 and SB midnight. Then LA just in time for the rush hour with lots of accidents possible.
This is going to be short lived, but pack a punch. It will pour for at 3 to 4 hour period, with lighter stuff between. With all the dirt saturated streams are going to be roaring. Expect some flooding in areas, with rainfall rates up to 1/2 to 3/4 inch per hour. Mainly in the overnight hours.
Rain will depart Friday morning with showers. Friday night a second wave, but mainly over the mountains.
Rain totals 1 to 2 inches coastal SLO , SY and SB Mountains 2 to 4 inches . LA a bit less…by Saturday morning it will all be over. It will be Cool day as colder air moves in Friday night.
Sunday a Santa Anna event starts up. Winds and dry air comes back though midweek. Chilly and freezing nights in the valleys sunny and warm days. High pressure will keep the storm track above us though Wednesday
That’s the good news………….
The bad news……….
If you planning a trip to Hawaii it is going to be wet next week.
Late in the week the high breaks down and more rain is in the forecast late in the week here…To add insult to injury the 8 to 14 day long range models bring us lots more rain….
We will close with, WOW… where was this weather last year ???
2/6/17 Nice Rain….
Good Monday morning,
The rain started right on schedule. 8pm, almost on the dot.
Look at these total since last night.
Santa Barbara 1.08″
Montecito 1.24″
San Marcos Pass 1.75″
This is only since 5am. It has been raining hard since 5am. This numbers are going to climb.
http://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/images/countyPrecipMaps/santabarbara_24HRprecip.png
Looks like we will have rain through the day. Then more overnight and through Tuesday. Tuesday’s rain will be more showery, than steady. We will see nice totals when it is all said and done…these rain will bring Cachuma Lake levels up.
We will get a break on Wednesday and Thursday.
Thursday night, we get the next system. This will bring rain Friday.
It looks like we will see a dry weekend….
Got to love all the rain…. and how about that super bowl. What a comeback…. I missed the half time show, because I had to cover a roof with plastic.
Take a look at the radar right now
Enjoy the rain….
2/2/17 Rain Has Arrived
Thursday morning brings the rain earlier than expected. Yesterday the models thought the rain would stay north a little longer.
Rain in central California is 1/4 to 3/4 at rocky butte right now. Rain started falling around 5:30 AM today from Santa Barbara and North. Rain is also getting close to Ventura right now.
We will see periods of rain today, tonight and into Friday morning. This will not be a big rain maker, but totals will range 1/3 to an inch through Friday. Rain will fall tonight and Friday across LA.
Clearing for Saturday and Sunday, and then the next system starts Sunday night into Monday. Models keep flip flopping on the strength. It will at least be like today’s storm.
Looks like the atmospheric river will stay over northern California, where they will get the bulk of the rain. Any way you look at this, we will welcome full reservoir anywhere in California. These rains will not be heavy, but will continue the flow into Cachuma Lake, which is now at 13%.
Have a nice rain day.
2/1/17 Wednesday Update
Hump day, transition day. We will feel and see the changes.
No real changes to the forecast from yesterday. We will see high clouds move in today ahead of the low pressure system. High pressure is moving east and will be replaced by the low. This has been spinning around the coastal waters all week. It is now on the move, however it is moving more northward.
What this means is we will not get a lot of rain. This has been advertised the past few days, so it is nothing new.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
The system will mainly affect SLO, Santa Ynez and Santa Barbara. Ventura and south will only see showers. Rain will start overnight from the north to the south.
Rain will begin in SLO early Thursday morning and move south. Santa Barbara around mid-morning. This will not be a big system. Rain will also fall into Thursday night. With showers Friday.
Don’t expect more then 1/4 to 1/2 of an inch with the first system.
Ventura and LA will have the best chance of rain Thursday night into Friday.
Clear but cool Saturday and Sunday. Super bowl Sunday will be dry during the day, but cool.
Sunday night into Monday, the next system rolls in. It does look like this will give us a better rain. Stronger system that will move further south. Total are still not clear, but an inch is possible.
Stay tuned. We need more rain… For the record we are around 160% to 180% of normal for this time of year… That makes us all happy.
We just want much more. Feb and March are good rain months also. Let’s hope to double what we have now…
Enjoy the rain