12/31/23
Good New Year’s Eve morning,
I am sure everyone is counting down the minutes till the new year. However I thought we would end 2023 with some stats.
Cachuma lake is 91% full with Gibraltar and many other reservoirs full.
Rain totals for the season at this point are 114% of normal.
Yesterday’s storm brought everyone 1 inch of rain. Some Mountain locations saw 2 inches.
https://files.countyofsb.org/pwd/hydrology/Rainfall%20Reports/rainfallreport.pdf
Today you will see cloudy skies most of the day with a chance of rain later today and tonight. This is a very weak system, where it does rain expect 1/10 or less.
Monday and Tuesday look dry, but Wednesday a stronger system will move in in the early morning in SLO and late morning on SB and Ventura. rain totals will be 1/2 to 1 1/2 inches.
Thursday the rain clears out and it looks Like a dry few days, with another system Sunday. At this point it looks to be weaker, but we are still too far out to make that call.
In the mean time, enjoy your last day of 2023 and we will talk in the new year 😂
Happy new years to All “Cheers”
Jack Martin
12/30/23
Good Saturday wet morning,
The rains arrived overnight and the good news it is almost over.
https://radar.weather.gov/station/KVTX/standard
It was a quick hitter with around 8 hours of rain, and all while we were sleeping.
Good rain totals with 1/2 to an inch of rain locally and around 2 inches at some locations. Refugio had around 2 inches.
Today will be dry and cool the rest of today and most of Sunday, before another system Sunday night into Monday.
This will be very similar to last nights rain, but much less in total. No more the 20/100, Or less then 1/4 of an inch. Rain in LA area will likely roll into new years morning, but clear out for the game in Pasadena.
Next week we are now beginning to get a feel for the weather, which is looking to keep the storm door open all week. These do not look like big systems, but it looks like rain Tuesday night into Wednesday then another storm for the weekend. We will feel it out as we get closer to the 3rd storm.
Bottom line we will start off the new years with dampness, but not crazy wet.
After next week it looks like we are in for a great the week following if the long range models hold together.
Have a great weekend and New Year’s Eve, I am sure we will be typing away before the new year.
Jack Martin
12/29/23
It was a wild day if you were sightseeing at the beach yesterday with high tide and high surf at 10:30 in the morning and got quite exciting. I was reading that nine people went to the hospital in Ventura from that rogue wave that flooded everything out.
Today, high tide is at 12:30 and the wave heights will not be quite as high. Still, it will result in the same issues where parking lots will get flooded
Weatherwise, we have rain coming in this evening lasting overnight into Saturday morning. Looks like anywhere from half an inch to 2 inches is likely. Overnight tonight into Saturday morning you can take a look at Zoom Earth you’ll see high clouds over us now and the front will move in later in the afternoon, creating light to moderate rain. Rain rates will not exceed 1/2 inch per hour.
This will not be anything like the last storm, but the accumulations will be decent. Some southeast winds will enhance the rainfall on south-facing mountains to 2 inches. Winds can blow in the hills to 45 miles an hour from the southeast.
https://zoom.earth/
Looks like Saturday afternoon it will clear out. We’ll have a dry Saturday night and Sunday morning at least. Consensus on the next system is still not clear and may completely miss us and stay west and go south.
We have to see how that all plays out. Next week it looks like we’ll have two dry days, Tuesday and Wednesday. Then another system coming in Wednesday night and Thursday. This does not appear to be a strong system only light rain.
Have a great day, if you’re going to the beach watch the waves at all times and get ready to run 🤔🤣
Jack Martin
12/27/23
Good Wednesday morning,
With theses holidays, I have to pause for a moment and trying to think about what day it is.
Today, Wednesday, zoom earth shows us that all the storms and energy is north of our forecast area. Northern California and the Pacific Northwest is seeing all the action.
https://zoom.earth/
The system to the north will sag south later today, but it looks like any rain that squeezes out will remain over SLO and maybe western Santa Barbara county. Where rain occurs it will likely be 1/10 of an inch.
Here is SB it looks to remain dry.
Thursday a weak ridge builds in through mid day Friday. Then another stronger system arrives Friday night and Saturday morning. This one does appear to bring everyone some rain. Expect 1/2 to 1 inch of rain for most out of the system. SLO could see a little more and south facing mountains of SB up to 2 inches. Ventura and LA will get wet, but more of 1/4 to 3/4 of an inch.
Sunday looks to be dry, but beyond that the models are not in agreement. There is some chatter about rain New Year’s Eve into New Year’s Day, but all models differ at this point. It does look like a ridge will build in next Tuesday bringing dry weather for the start of 2024. Looking into the extended forecast there does not appear to be any big systems on the forecast for the first full week of January 2024.
Enjoy your week
Jack Martin
12/26/23
Good day after Christmas morning,
For some of you it is back to the jobs, otherwise you get to enjoy another day of celebrating the holidays. For me 4 AM wake up and get ready for work.
As far as the weather goes, looks like we’re gonna have mixed bag, the rest of the week with high-pressure today, starting to turn on shore later in the day, with a very slight chance of some rain tonight and Wednesday morning. Mainly to the north in Slo, and northern Santa Barbara County. With Less than a quarter of an inch.
Looks like Santa Barbara should remain dry with the first system.
Wednesday, Thursday and half of Friday also looks to be dry, but Friday night is when the next system arrives. This one looks to create some rain for everyone most likely 1/2 inch to 1 inch starting Friday night and most of Saturday.
Sunday, New Year’s Eve day, rain chances start all over again on Monday and Tuesday. We Have to watch and see how that all plays out.
We don’t expect any huge storms at this point but some rain is likely at times the rest of this week and mainly Friday night and Saturday.
I hope everyone had a great Christmas as always seems to go by so quickly five more days of 2023 then we bring in the new year.
Enjoy the rest of your week
Best,
Jack Martin
12/22/23
Wow, we made it through the storm, but not without a lot of excitement. All the hype came to be 100% accurate Rain intensity and totals broke numerous records, with Oxnard receiving all most 3 inches in 1 hour yesterday. Rain totals ranged from 4 to 16 inches, with rocky Butte the winner with over 16 inches in the 5 day total. The 154 got 10 inches, SB 7 inches and everyone else hovering right around the same on south faces.
It was so crazy that Santa Barbara made the national news last night with quite a long segment. Here are some numbers to view https://www.weather.gov/lox/LAXRRMSBA
Today the 22nd of December, the rain is coming to an end as the system is south and East of us. SB today will see 1/10th to no rain today. LA still with a chance of showers.
I do have good news in the forecast with no more rain through the 26th at least. There is a chance for rain the 27th, but models are backing off that for our area and it looks to be more of a north storm.
I think we all need a break, anyway. I know that this week has been intense for me.
We felt trapped yesterday as the waters filled the streets at my office. The only way out was to take the high roads. Everything was flooded to the south. It is amazing to me that people that see an area is flooded and they still drive through it and get trapped.
Here are some photos that I took from my travels and right out side my office door
Enjoy your holiday, merry Christmas and Box day to all.
Also the last bit of good news is every day forward the days get 1 to 2 minutes longer as we have passed winter solstice.
Have a great holiday with Family and friends!
There are some great football and basketball games on this weekend and Christmas Day.
Best,
Jack Martin
12/21/23
Good Thursday morning,
Wow, with all the rain this week I really had to think about what day it was… I started to type Wednesday then I had to check.
The heaviest rain is now over Ventura and moving into LA. Early this morning Oxnard area and Silver Strand Beach got 3 inches of rain in 3 hours.
Looking at the zoom earth you can see the center of the low is just offshore of point conception https://zoom.earth/ …just west of us.
This is going to bring us numerous showers and rain through out today. Expect rain heavy at times amounting to another 1 to 3 inches through Friday.
Wrap around moisture will occur late today into Friday with showers throughout the day, but Friday will be drier.
By Saturday, the low-pressure system will move East, and the rain will be over, here with only some stray showers in LA.
I would hate to be traveling by air or even car in LA today. There is going to be tons of delays and many accidents on the road.
Stay away from there if you can.
Sunday, Christmas Eve day, the rain will be all but a memory. We will have 3 days of great weather with high pressure building in through Tuesday the 26th.
Wednesday and Thursday of next week, long range models are hinting another storm. However that is a Christmas away.
Here are the numbers so far rainfall has been 3 to 8 inches for most this week so far https://www.weather.gov/lox/LAXRRMSBA
Just look at rocky Butte in SLO with over 15 inches of rain so far this week https://www.weather.gov/lox/LAXRRMSLO
Enjoy the rain, it will be showery more than steady rain the next two days.
4 days till Christmas
Jack Martin
12/20/23
Good morning,
The rain was very affective the past 2 days with good accumulation. Santa Barbara 1.75, Montecito 2.6 and KTYD tower over 5.58 inches https://www.weather.gov/lox/LAXRRMSBA
I would say that is a pretty good storm, but the real rain has not started yet. Here it is spinning tightly off the San Francisco coast https://zoom.earth/
This is moving into position to bring us heavy rain starting early this afternoon through most of Thursday. Winds will pick up from the south and blow in the mountains at 45 mile an hour. Here we will feel winds but nothing like the mountains. For today light to moderate rain this morning, then the tap opens up this afternoon and rain will be come heavy at times, for the next 24 to 36 hours. rain rates at .30 to .60 per hour. Rain totals will be 4 to 8 inches and 5 to 10 inches on south facing mountains of Santa Barbara and Santa Ynez
If and where thunderstorms occur rain rates may go more than 1 inch per hour. It is going to be a very wet period with some flooding likely. I will be watching the rain and radar as we get into the afternoon. Rain will continue through Thursday, then Friday we will see some showers, but the rain will begin to end. Still a chance for very light rain Saturday, but the system will likely be over until Wednesday of next week. We will be dry through the 26th of December (amen for Jack to visit with family)
Wednesday next week the forecast gets questionable with another system. Looking at the long-term models they are calling for more rain before the 2nd of January.
Enjoy the wild weather, and by the way 5 days till Christmas and Thursday is winter solstice with the shortest day of the year. With all the rain that might be a good thing
Just so you know Cachuma is at 88.9% and will likely fill the earliest we have seen in many years https://files.countyofsb.org/pwd/hydrology/Rainfall%20Reports/rainfallreport.pdf
Jack Martin
12/19/23
Good Tuesday morning,
We are looking at steady light rain this morning https://radar.weather.gov/station/KVBX/standard
As you can see on zoom earth satellite, storm #2 is in the picture now https://zoom.earth/
Don’t be confused with yesterday’s storm that went to the north and east, this one slide into place and is now rolling down the coast.
Today we should see light rain and accumulations of ½ to 1 inch of rain. Rain rates will be light at 1/10 to ¼ per hour.
There will be some breaks, but more steady light rain is likely today.
Tonight and through Thursday the second storm stalls over point conception and pumps in sub-tropical moisture
Yes, as advertised this one will be a doozie. 2 to 4 inches for all, but south facing Santa Barbara mountain 4 to 7 inches.
Rain will be heavy for 24 to 36 hours Wednesday into mid Thursday. South flow and subtropical moisture make a classic winter storm in California
Expect some flooding in areas especially as the rains ramp up Wednesday
Friday it looks like it will move east with a few showers possible and by Saturday it all clears out.
It does look like we have high pressure building in through Tuesday and dry weather for Christmas.
Enjoy the rain, it will get wild within the next 24 hours.
Jack Martin
12/18/23
By jack martin on Dec 18, 2023 at 05:25 PM
Good Monday morning,
Not much Action out there at this point, but there are a few interesting things going on.
It is quite warm this morning, crazy warm, 59 in Santa Ynez and 66 along the coast in Santa Barbara.
The rain really has been light to non-existent at this point.
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=39.49,-130.75,5z
The upper low is too far offshore and rising to the Northeast, keeping the rain to the north.
Don’t fear it will still arrive, just giving us a little more time to get ready for it. Rain will arrive later this morning or afternoon, but this first storm will be much lighter.
Rain today and Tuesday will be around ½ an inch to 1.5 inch in higher elevations. Rain will start out light then pick up tonight and most of Tuesday.
The second storm is what it will be all about. This system promises to be a strong storm. This starts up Tuesday night into Thursday, but rain will occur into Friday.
This system will wobble down the coast, and park, pumping in moisture from the subtropical jet. Yes, we are still on track for a lot of rain.
How much? Well models are still saying 2 to 5 inches, with 4 to 7 inches possible on south facing mountains.
Saturday it looks like we clear up for Christmas.
Enjoy the fun, it will get much more interesting!
Jack Martin
12/17/23 – evening update
Good Sunday evening almost 7 PM and look at me doing the weather report. What the heck! It was a fantastic weekend and ending Sunday night with great sunsets, but changes are happening fast.
I think I have said this a couple times but as the models get closer to the event, it looks like it is going to be a bigger event. I’m gonna have to monitor it as we get closer but rain will start up tonight. Won’t be super heavy Rain both on Monday and Tuesday with the first system accumulation 1 inch with the first.
The next system will arrive Tuesday night through Wednesday. We’re gonna see first wave of the system bring us another inch and a half.
Thursday and Friday is the wildcard but the wildcard is probably worth playing because it is looking like it’s gonna produce a bunch more rain. Computer models tonight are talking about 4 1/2 inches of rain and that may be pushing it a little bit but it’s gonna be a wet week. The good news and the silver lining looks like the rain will go away on Saturday and we should have decent weather for Christmas.
Of course, more to come, enjoy your evening bring an umbrella.
Stay tuned, rates go up this time of year 😂
Jack Martin
12/17/23
Happy Sunday. Changes are in the air. As you look out side you see some mid level clouds starting to cover the skies. This will really do nothing other then give us a cloudy day.
Offshore winds will still keep us warm today with above normal temps with highs in the 70s. This afternoon winds shift onshore and rain on the central coast will start up. Don’t expect any rain for us until tonight. Rain totals will be light through the first system with approximately 1/3 of an inch or less through Monday.
Zoom Earth | Live Weather Map & Hurricane Tracker
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=38,-131,4.84z
Tuesday still looks to be wet and the next system starts to move in, but rain will not be to intense.
The Wednesday through Friday period is when the real action arrives. We are expecting a weak atmospheric river with the cut-off low pumping subtropical moisture over us. Exact time is still not clear, but it will be a wet period at times 1.5 to 4 inches is likely out of the second system. It looks like we should be on the backside of the rain by Saturday. Bottom line it is going to be a wet week, enjoy the last dry warm day. After today highs will be in the 60s at best.
Jack Martin
12/16/23
Well there it is the little bugger that is going to make next week wet and unpredictable.
Zoom Earth | Live Weather Map & Hurricane Tracker
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/
Today off shore winds and high pressure will keep us quite warm, upper 70s to some low 80s. Tonight extra cold for most.
Now a slight change in the forecast.
Sunday looks to be dry most of the day. Then rain chances start up north to south late in the day.
Monday looks to be wet on and off with around 1/2 inch of rain in SB, more to the north and less to the south.
Tuesday is a change again. Yesterday it looked to be transition day, Now it looks to be wet and rain. Subtropical moisture will pump in from the south and give us rain.
Wednesday through Friday. The cut off low just spins off the coast and pumps moisture our way. How much and when is really open, since this is a cut off low.
We are expecting 1 to 3 inches through the period, but cut off lows can change things both ways. I do expect wet and especially south facing mountains of SB and Montecito.
Enjoy the nice weekend, because it looks wet most of next week.
Jack Martin
12/15/23
Good Friday morning,
If you take a look at the satellite, you’re gonna see that offshore flow, and the ridge is keeping all the clouds away and pushing them to the north. This condition will persist through Saturday and matter of fact, Saturday will be the warmest day of the next seven with the upper 70s and some low 80s But quite chilly at night.
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=34.9,-129.3,4z/date=2023-12-15,03:00,-8
Sunday picture begins to change high pressure starts to go away and the first system starts to move in. It does look like this will be pushed more to the north and rain will be minimal and not starting until later Sunday afternoon. With this being said we should see anywhere from 1/4 to a half an inch in Santa Barbara. Add a bit more on the Central Coast.
Monday Looks to be showering with possibly a quarter of an inch of rain.
Transition day Tuesday before a cut-off low arrives Tuesday into Wednesday. This is the system to watch. At this point, it appears the low is just going to spin around off the coast and pull up moisture from the subtropical and will just pump the rain into the area affecting the south-facing mountains of Montecito and Santa Barbara with the heaviest rainfall. It does appear 1 to 3 inches of rain is likely, but the exact timing is still not clear.
Looks like the period Wednesday through Friday are the most likely days for the heavier rain. The cut-off low makes it difficult to predict the exact timing and the amount of rain so stay tuned.
More fun to come
Jack Martin
12/14/23
Are we counting the days? We now have 2 things to count…
3 days of dry weather before rain arrives… 11 days until Christmas.
For the weather, you can see on zoom earth high pressure is keeping all clouds away for the next 3 days. Then a series of systems will begin to affect us starting Sunday.
Then next week, a second larger system for the 20th to the 22nd.
The first system will arrive Sunday into Monday. Rain chances start on the central coast Sunday morning and drop south through the day. This is not going to be a big rain maker, but 1/2 to 1 inch between Sunday and Monday. It does look like some rain on Monday.
Zoom Earth | Live Weather Map & Hurricane Tracker:
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/
Tuesday looks to be the only day between systems that will be dry.
The door opens up Wednesday through Friday for the second bigger system. Exact details are still a little sketchy for timing and rain amounts so we’ll have to wait and see how that plays out, but this does have a potential for heavy rain and a large accumulation.
In the mean time, enjoy 3 days of warm dry weather. Sunny skies and above normal temps through Saturday. Expect highs in the 70s to upper 70s Friday and Saturday. As always stay tuned, more to come.
Jack Martin
12/13/23
Good chilly Wednesday morning,
Winds are shifting once again to off shore. What this means is above normal temps during the day and colder nights. There will be temperature change, day to night of 40 degrees in some locations.
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-120.04623413085939&lat=34.6196473597972
Dry weather is expected through Saturday, then major changes are expected most of next week, with our first chance of rain Sunday into Monday.
Let’s start with current weather. Off shore winds will start to warm us up. Expect Friday and Saturday to be the warmest days. Highs in the mid 70s to 80 degrees in the warmest locations, but colder nights.
Sunday look for the first storm system to arrive, chances of rain starts during the day, especially on the central coast. Rain fall is not clear yet, but 1/2 to 3/4 on the central coast 1/4 to 1/2 in the Santa Barbara area and 1/10 in LA. This first system does not have a lot of moisture to work with.
After that it gets very interesting. Models are still not really aligned but if it all comes together we could see a series of storms affection us in the 7 to 12 day forecast leading up to Christmas. Right now, as it stands, we could see subtropical moisture combined with low pressure later next week. Should this happen we will see heavy rain, and likely a series of systems from the 20th to at least the 25th.
Nothing is for sure right now, but we need to watch this closely as we get into the weekend. It does appear we will be getting into a wet pattern, just how wet is still to be determined.
Stay tuned, this is the time of year where Jack’s forecast gets interesting.
Jack Martin
12/12/23
Good Tuesday morning,
Another chilly start to the day in the Santa Ynez valley at 36 degrees and 50 in Santa Barbara. Highs today will be around 70s.
Starting Wednesday some cooling as a weak front passes through affecting temps only. Off shore flow starts to build back up Thursday with warm on Friday and Saturday.
Highs in some valleys might hit 80 degrees on Saturday.
Starting Sunday things begin to change. Models are suggesting rain is starting, but are not in agreement at this point on timing or quantity.
The first system Sunday into Monday should be fairly weak with lighter rain. The big question pops up with the next system Tuesday into Wednesday. As we turn later in the week the short term models will take over and any questions should be answered. If the long term models are correct we could be into a wet pattern the 19th of December into possibly the new year.
Time will tell, but don’t bet the house on it at this point.
Zoom Earth | Live Weather Map & Hurricane Tracker:
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=55.1,-139.5,4z
Talk soon,
Jack Martin
12/11/23
Good Monday morning,
This week will pretty much be a carbon copy of last week. I you are enjoying the nice dry weather; you will like this forecast.
Today some high clouds streaming over us and a high is around 70 degrees along the coast and 75 in the valleys. Nights will be in the 50s coastal and 40s in the valleys.
Santa Ynez is a chilly 39 degrees and 53 in Santa Barbara. here is how it looks from the sky https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=31.05,-112.86,5z
All week through Saturday it looks to be the same results, with nice days and highs around 70 to mid-70s.
Looking towards the weekend Saturday looks to be cloudier and then the rain word creeps into the forecast on Sunday. we will have to see how this plays out but I guess it is time that we start to see some of that wet stuff.
It has been a good run of dry weather allowing me to get caught up from all the rain earlier in the year. enjoy the dry weather this week, there might be changes upcoming.
I know the big question you have is what happened to El Nino? well, it is still in the picture and out there. El Nino typically hits us January through March and it is still likely to bring us an above normal rainfall for the weather year.
Our weather year goes from October 1st, 2023, to September 30th, 2024. don’t think it is off the table because we have been dry for the past few months.
The holiday season might be starting later in the mountains, but it is still more than likely to happen. Here is the latest of the possibilities. https://www.newsweek.com/noaa-maps-el-nino-rain-snow-winter-1850730
Have a great week, you will likely need to look back in a month to remember the dry weather before Christmas.
Jack Martin
12/7/23
If you live in the Pacific Northwest you’ve been experiencing an atmospheric river this week, flooding and lots of rain.
Quite a different story back in Southern California where the only real weather Action will be wind.
Today the tail end of the Pacific Northwest low will past through. No rain here, but this afternoon and tonight lots of wind. Especially the Montecito hills where 70 mile an hour gusts are possible.
As far as temps go highs will be in the upper 60s to 70 degrees, today and the next week.
It is pretty easy to sum up our forecast for the next 7 days, with the only real excitement is some wind at times.
Southern California will be perfect with highs around 70 degrees and lows in the valleys with 40s and coastal 50s. I think most of the country would Settle for our lows as highs. We will need a sweatshirt at best.
Enjoy the pre holiday great shopping weather. No excuses for the weather. Just don’t use those credit cards, unless you pay them off ever month because the interest will hurt.
Enjoy the weekend, likely no reason for a report Friday
Bring rain gear if your going to the Pacific Northwest
Jack Martin
12/6/23
Good Wednesday morning,
How about that weather in Tuesday, SB hit 79 degrees, Santa Ynez 82 degrees
A storm system in the pacific northwest is now working its way towards California https://zoom.earth/
This has been dropping buckets of rain in the northwest and California will get the tail end of this.
Rain possibilities will be as far south as Santa Ynez, but 1/10th of an inch or less this afternoon – tonight.
For us, SB south. no rain only wind, that is pretty much the story for the next week.
Today offshore turns on shore this afternoon, it will be a cooler day with a high of around 70 degrees.
Tonight Northwest winds blow though, winds will pick up tonight then tail off Thursday morning.
Later Thursday the winds shift to the Montecito hills then Friday further south to Santa Ana county.
This pattern will remain though the next week, with onshore, offshore and winds. No rain in site through next week
Have a great day, here comes daylight at 6:19am. December 21st is coming and days will start to get longer once again.
Jack Martin
12/4/23
Happy Monday the 4th of December. 21 days till Christmas.
A lack of weather reports the last few days, because there is really nothing to report.
The only excitement on the west coast is in the Pacific northwest where they are getting buckets of rain right now. https://zoom.earth/
Here in paradise, it is winter and cooler, but hot for many in areas outside of California.
Tuesday some wind of 40 miles an hour in Santa Ana country. Here in SB calm and warm
It looks like we will be dry for the next 2 weeks will on and off, offshore winds and temps the next 2 days well above normal.
Highs in the mid-70s to low 80s in some locations. Lows at night are quite warm for this time of year. 40s in the valleys and 50s coastal.
Wednesday, we switch to on shore and a slight chance for rain in SLO county, but non here. Maybe some winds
Cooler days through Friday then another round of offshore and Santa Ana winds. It now looks like the same pattern continues through next week.
Dry conditions for the next 2 weeks, snow in mountains will not be like it has been the past 2 years.
We are starting out with less excitement and weather so far. All good in my eyes, no rain is a good thing and we have plenty of water in those lakes.
Jack Martin