12/31/19
New Year’s Eve day,
The last day of this decade. We will be moving into 2020’s for the next 10 years.
Wow, I remember the 2000s like it was just a few years back. Time flies….
If you were up with me this morning, I watched 2020 arrive in Sydney, Australia.
Quite the fireworks there. Google them, pretty cool.
For today, we are looking at wind in Ventura and all Santa Ana wind prone areas. Winds should start to back off this afternoon, with some breezes tonight.
The low from yesterday is now spinning in the Mexican Baja:2
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/conus_band.php?sat=G17&band=09&length=12
Wednesday, Jan 1st 2020 should be a good day for all. Temps will be upper 60s and the wind will die to calm. Perfect for the parade and Rose Bowl.
Wednesday night however, low pressure will bring wind to north facing mountains and Jack’s backyard at north west faces in SB.
60 mile an hour gusts are possible.
Back to work Thursday looks good, but cooler in the valleys.
Friday through the weekend, Santa Ana winds return to Ventura south, and we all warm up to above normal temps.
We will likely see 70s.
Beyond that, the 7 to 10 day forecast appears to be dry. With no rain in sight.
Let me be the first to wish you a happy New Years 2020.
I am going to try to make a New York City New Years, no chance for a west coast celebration.
Enjoy and go Ducks 😁
12/30/19
Good Monday morning,
Low pressure has moved south and now is creating some rain and lighter showers.
The low pressure system has drifted further to the west than predicted. This is very visible on the satellite view:
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/conus_band.php?sat=G17&band=09&length=12
Because the low is further off shore, Ventura will just see a trace of rain and LA no rain.
Santa Barbara and the central coast around 1/4 of an inch.
This afternoon the low drops further south and remains west. This will allow Northeast winds to take over.
Santa Ana wind event will begin this afternoon. 25 to 35 mile an hour winds are likely. Winds continue into Tuesday for all areas Ventura and south to Catalina.
For all Tuesday through the weekend will remain dry with no rain.
Tuesday and Wednesday will remain below normal temps with highs in the mid 60s.
Thursday we begin to warm up and by Friday into the weekend above normal temps are expected. Looks like we will see 70s for the first time in awhile.
Santa winds will continue Wednesday into Friday as high pressure and off shore flow builds stronger.
All in all we are poised for a dry period and warming temps at the end of the week.
Have a good week and New Years is almost upon us.
12/29/19
Good Sunday morning,
Right when we thought the rain was figured out on Saturday, we will throw a monkey wrench into the forecast. Yesterday we talked about all the rain in LA and Ventura.
Now it is not that likely. Rain is still going to happen, but the track has changed.
It now looks like low pressure will dig south today, but continue south and miss most of LA.
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
So what is the latest forecast?
Today is looking good. Sunny, but cool with highs below normal around 60 degrees.
This afternoon we should see some mid to high clouds over us.
Tonight the low drops south and is parked 100 miles west of point conception.
This will start rain on the central coast around 4 am, then move it south into SB and then Ventura. Rain might miss LA all together.
Monday we will see rain, and showers. Totals for central coast around 1/4 to 3/4.
SB 1/4 to 1/2 Ventura 1/4.
Tuesday we turn to off shore winds. Catalina and Avalon harbor will be rocking once again, but not in a good way.
Looks like the Santa Ana event will last through most of the week. By Thursday and Friday we will warm up and reach 70s.
The good news is after Monday’s rain, we will be dry for the rest of the week.
Snow levels on Monday will still be very low, so we will see what that brings to local mountains and the Grapevine.
Enjoy your Sunday, Go Seahawks (good game tonight.)
12/28/19
Good Saturday morning,
Around the holidays I really need to think, what day is this?
Today and Sunday we will enjoy sunshine and cooler weather. Highs will be in the low 60s and lows around freezing in valleys, with low 40s coastal.
The best news is the Grape vine is back open, freeways and surface streets will see lighter traffic, for 2 days at least………
Yes, another even colder system arrives Sunday night. It does look like the Grapevine on the I5 will be closed again, creating a new year nightmare on the road again.
As far as rain and snow goes. The next system rolls in Sunday night. All models now finally agree on the track of the low.
If you like more rain and snow, then you will like what I have to say.
Sunday night a cut off low drops down the coast and settles at point conception. This will allow increased rain totals for Southern California.
SLO will stick with the original .25 to .50. Santa Barbara will see .50 to 1 inch, and more in south facing mountains. Ventura and LA will see the most with .75 to 1.5 inches.
The bulk of the rain will be Sunday night into Monday first half of the day.
Tuesday, New Year’s Eve day looks to be dry and a Santa Ana wind event begins to set up. With this there is good and bad news.
Winds in Ventura and Santa Monica will blow hard, but in protected areas like Santa Barbara and The Rose Bowl will only have warmer temps just in time for the game.
The other news is we should see dry, and warm conditions the rest of the first week in January.
Here is how it looks from the sky.
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
If you need to travel on the road ways, Monday and Tuesday will not be good days from San Francisco to LA, and especially Santa Barbara. As the interstate 5 will likely close again.
I will bunker down and watch the Ducks from my 86 inch flat screen over looking the freeway traffic.
Enjoy your Saturday, more Sunday.
12/28/19
Good Saturday morning,
Around the holidays I really need to think, what day is this?
Today and Sunday we will enjoy sunshine and cooler weather. Highs will be in the low 60s and lows around freezing in valleys, with low 40s coastal.
The best news is the Grape vine is back open, freeways and surface streets will see lighter traffic, for 2 days at least………
Yes, another even colder system arrives Sunday night. It does look like the Grapevine on the I5 will be closed again, creating a new year nightmare on the road again.
As far as rain and snow goes. The next system rolls in Sunday night. All models now finally agree on the track of the low.
If you like more rain and snow, then you will like what I have to say.
Sunday night a cut off low drops down the coast and settles at point conception. This will allow increased rain totals for Southern California.
SLO will stick with the original .25 to .50. Santa Barbara will see .50 to 1 inch, and more in south facing mountains. Ventura and LA will see the most with .75 to 1.5 inches.
The bulk of the rain will be Sunday night into Monday first half of the day.
Tuesday, New Year’s Eve day looks to be dry and a Santa Ana wind event begins to set up. With this there is good and bad news.
Winds in Ventura and Santa Monica will blow hard, but in protected areas like Santa Barbara and The Rose Bowl will only have warmer temps just in time for the game.
The other news is we should see dry, and warm conditions the rest of the first week in January.
Here is how it looks from the sky.
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
If you need to travel on the road ways, Monday and Tuesday will not be good days from San Francisco to LA, and especially Santa Barbara. As the interstate 5 will likely close again.
I will bunker down and watch the Ducks from my 86 inch flat screen over looking the freeway traffic.
Enjoy your Saturday, more Sunday.
12/27/19
Good Friday morning,
The low has moved East and will start it’s way across the country, giving them lots of snow.
For us, it is starting out mighty cold this morning with some valleys in the 20s and coastal areas in the low 40s.
A ridge is building in for the next 3 days, bringing us dry, but cold weather with highs only around 60 degrees:
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
The high pressure remains in place through Sunday, giving us nice chilly weather for outdoor activities.
Sunday night and Monday, the next system rolls in. All models now agree that we will all see rain late Sunday night into Monday.
This system will not be a big rain maker. We are looking at 1/4 to 1/2 of rain from this one.
We should clear out Monday afternoon, and we should see nice weather through the rest of the week.
New Year’s Day and the Rose Bowl will be another recruiting trip for visitors. Way back in the day.
I came to a Rose Bowl and it was 89 degrees on Jan first.
The following spring I packed my bags from Bellevue Washington, never looked back.
Have a great weekend. A few good college games on today and Saturday.
Enjoy your cool, but sunny weekend.
12/26/19
Good Thursday morning,
Christmas night brought lots of excitement for the Santa Barbara area. The winner was Montecito for 1.80 inches in the past 24 hours.
Santa Barbara was close behind with 1.57 inches. The 5 day totals are approaching 5 inches in numerous areas. That’s quite a bit of rain.
Yes this does put us above normal for this time of year. The low is right over us now.
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
Today the showery pattern will continue, mainly the first half of the day. Showers are moving into Goleta soon.
This afternoon we begin the clearing process and we will see dry weather through Sunday.
Sunday night, the next system begins to roll in. Models agreement varies with this system.
It is still too far to know how it will affect our weather, but it does look like we will see some rain Monday.
Tuesday and Wednesday looks to be dry.
Have a great day, hope everyone had a good Christmas.
12/25/19
Good Christmas morning,
Hope everyone had a good Christmas Eve and going to have a better Christmas Day.
The Rain has been falling in the San Francisco area and will move south today.
It does look like most of your Christmas Day will remain dry. This is good news for my Teams that are on call today, but as the day progresses, the rain intensity will increase.
Looks like rain will start from north to south as typical. SLO will see rain this afternoon and Santa Barbara early Evening. Ventura and LA shortly after. This will be a good rain.
As pointed out by the National weather service, at around 4pm they use the words “Game On” because we will see heavy rain tonight and southeast winds.
If you have followed my forecast for some time you will know when we mention southeast winds, that that means Santa Barbara will get the most rain and it will come down hard.
Looks like peak rates will be .75 per hour, and rain should fall heavy for 3 to 4 hours. Typical coastal areas will see 1 to 2 inches. South facing hills and Santa Barbara 2 to 4 inches.
Also with Christmas we always think of snow in the same sentence, well your in luck.
Snow level tonight will drop to 3000 feet and many areas will see snow when they wake on Thursday morning. (photos please, I am in Northern CA.) Thursday maybe some showers, but the event will be at the end. It will be a bitter cold day also.
Friday and Saturday, sunshine returns. Very cold, with freezing temps in most valley areas.
The view will be looking out to the island. It will be a picture perfect clear day after the storm turns the views to high definition.
Sunday ridge breaks down, slight chance of rain, but looks like we will be fine at this point.
Starting out your Christmas Day, you will be able to enjoy the outdoors.
Later in the day it will be a complete reversal, bringing heavy rain.
Hope everyone has a great Christmas with family, it is the best time of the year…..
12/24/19
Christmas Eve day,
Another rainy week, one storm down and the next is right on our heels.
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
The low to the north will pump in some clouds today, but no rain. Today will be dry.
Tonight the low gets closer. It looks like it could affect areas to the north, but not us.
Models finally seem to agree on the rain, timing is not perfect.
Looks like light rain could start up Christmas morning, but it will not be heavy.
The heavier rain will come in later in the afternoon into evening. Looks like a good downpour for around 3 hours.
Thursday maybe some showers. Rain totals are looking to be around .75 to 1.5 inches with snow levels dropping to 4000 feet.
Lots of snow in the mountains Wednesday night and Thursday.
Friday into the weekend looks dry.
Have a great Christmas Eve.
More weather Christmas morning for all.
12/23/19
Good Monday morning,
That was quite a storm yesterday, our day started with sun then the south winds really started blowing. We had heavy rain for 6 hours.
Rain total in the Santa Barbara and Ventura areas were quite impressive.
Santa Barbara and Montecito received 2.5 inches of rain in that short period. This was thanks to our south facing hill.
https://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/images/countyPrecipMaps/santabarbara_24HRprecip.png
Today the low is spinning 400 miles to the west and moving south into Mexico before it swings to the East. Cold air has moved in. This is going to give us instability in the hills.
Pulling moisture from the subtropical jet into the area:
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/conus_band.php?sat=G17&band=09&length=12
The best chance for additional rain will be this afternoon, where some areas will see thunder showers. Santa Barbara to LA will see the most additional rain.
If you get caught in a thunderstorm, heavy rain will occur with 3/4 of an inch. Most areas will see an additional 1/4 to 3/4 of an inch today.
Tonight we dry out and Tuesday will be dry.
Tuesday night, the next system drops in. This is going to be a colder system arriving on Christmas Day. Looks like rain should start up by noon.
Models have struggled with this event. Yesterday they called for less rain. The last model run flipped and now has made this a stronger system.
Now looking like another round of heavy rain Christmas Day into Christmas night.
Thursday a few showers, but the system will move out, bringing Back dry weather.
Friday and Saturday look to be dry.
This week is short for some, but I have 1/2 weeks worth of hours this weekend alone.
Love the rain, just as long as it stays out of your house.
Here are the rain totals for the past 24 hours in Santa Barbara county.
12/22/19
Good Sunday morning ,
Blue skies are still out there, but it will not last to much longer. Pearl was hoping to get a chance to run on the beach . she is in luck .
The rain is moving into north county right now and will be here before noon
Today we will see rain starting north to south. It will arrive in Santa Barbara by noon. Looks like we will just see some steady rain through tonight.
Monday we will see some morning showers, but for the most part, the afternoon will see the sun back again.
Tuesday transition day, but a chance of rain Tuesday night.
Wednesday, the rain looks to give us the best shot later in the afternoon Christmas day.
Wednesday night and Thursday rain. This system should be weaker than the first one today.
Friday and Saturday we dry out and sunshine is back.
So what are we looking at for rain? Today, the first system ½ to 1 ½ inches coastal. South facing mountains 2 plus inches.
The air will turn chilly this afternoon, dropping the snow level to 4500 feet.
Christmas system looks at this point to give us ¼ to ¾ of an inch of rain. Still too early to know for sure, but it does look to give us less rain than today’s system.
Get outdoors quickly or you will miss the dry window.
Have a great Sunday.
12/21/19
Good Saturday morning,
The day is here, no not Christmas, it is winter solstice. Amen for that. Every day will begin to get a little longer.
We have had a nice 2 week break from the rain, but that is almost over. You have 1 more dry day then we all get wet again.
Here is the next system dropping from the north.
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
Today high pressure will move south, but dry air will only allow us to see clouds today.
Models all agree on the rain for Sunday. Rain will start up around 4am in SLO then move south.
Rain will arrive 6 to 7am to SB. South facing mountains of Santa Barbara and Ventura will see the most rain from this event. 1 to 2 inches is likely.
Other coastal areas will all see 1/2 to 1 inch. Eastern areas will see the least, because this is more of a coastal event.
Rain will turn to showers Sunday night. There will be showers here and there Monday.
Tuesday looks to be a great travel day with dry conditions. I will be off to Northern California.
Christmas Day and Thursday, the models are still all over the board with the next system on timing.
We will see rain later Christmas Day and sometime into Thursday.
The models keep changing at this point, so we really do not know when the rain will start.
It does look like Friday we clear up and return to dry weather.
More to come as we get into the Christmas week.
Enjoy the rain.
12/20/19
This morning is noticeably warm at 49 degrees in Santa Barbara, but still a chilly 36 degrees in Santa Ynez.
Ventura, you are waking to a little wind as Santa Ana winds are blowing slightly.
Today will be the warmest day of the next 7. Heights are going to be in the upper 60s and low 70s.
Some high clouds will stream over us today, but overall a nice day.
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
Saturday will be dry, but low pressure will begin to enter. The off shore flow will shift to on shore.
Sunday, we now have a good picture for the arrival of the rain. Rain will occur starting in SLO then work it’s way south.
SLO will see rain in early morning hours and Santa Barbara later in the morning. Ventura and south around noon.
South facing mountains over Santa Barbara will see the greatest rain well around 1 inch likely. Other locations around 1/2 to 1 inch.
Rain rates will not be a worry, only brief periods of heavier showers. Rain will fall into Sunday night.
Monday the low still hangs around, but most of the shower activity will be over Ventura to LA.
We will see some Action, but minimal rain.
Moving into the extended forecast. Tuesday Christmas Eve day looks to be fairly dry. Still a slight chance of showers.
Christmas Day and beyond, the models are still not in great agreement, but rain is looking more likely late Christmas Day into Thursday.
As mentioned yesterday, I believe we will see more rain on Thursday. A few more days and we will have a clear picture.
In the mean time, get your shopping done Saturday, because rain will dampen your day Sunday.
Also the count down is on, 5 days till Christmas.
Have a great day and weekend.
12/19/19
Wow,
Typing in the dates in the subject line is interesting, it makes me think about history and dates.
Today, 36 years ago, was my first date with my wife. I was a kid at 24 and she was 19. “How time flies. “
Weather for this date is going to be pleasant.
A cool start to the day in Santa Ynez at 36 degrees and the same chill in north county. A weak ridge will ride over us for the next 60 hours.
A little Northeast winds will affect Ventura, south later today and Friday. These winds will be lighter however. Nothing like earlier in the week.
This will give us some warming, and some high clouds streaming over us.The temps will warm us up to the upper 60s for the day.
Friday will be the warmest day of the week. Highs might get to 70.
Saturday, the high pressure remains for the first half of the day, then breaks down as the next system rolls in.
This is in the Gulf of Alaska right now. You can see it on the satellite picture in the top left side, spinning.
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
This will start to affect our weather Saturday night or Sunday. This depends on which long range model you read.
One brings rain after midnight to SLO, the other holds it off to the morning.
The one consensus that they agree on is we will have rain sometime Sunday into Monday.
This will bring a good rain with early totals of 1/2 to 1 inch.
Forecast models continue to bring us different signals into the Christmas week.
One keeps the low hanging around with showers Monday and Tuesday. The other shows rain ending Monday.
The next system rolls in Christmas Day or Thursday. Again, models are not feeling the same on this right now.
My best guess is we will be in a wet pattern again and see at least a second system.
As we get closer to Christmas and the start of next week, we will sort this all out.
In the meantime, enjoy some great December weather and get ready for rain Sunday.
Have a great day.
12/18/19
Good Wednesday morning,
Hump day will break up the pattern for the week, for one day. Thursday will bring back the same pattern.
Thursday and Friday will bring Sunshine in SB and wind Ventura and south.”Yes Steven it is not over yet.“
Today we have a weak storm system passing through. This really has not given us any rain here.
To the north 1/10 of an inch. All the rain really has stayed north in the bay area.
Here you can see the low spinning off shore north of our area.
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
There is a chance of rain remaining today. Mainly north county and just some sprinkles.
Thursday high pressure builds back in and winds return to Santa Ana prone areas to the south.
Friday will be another windy day for Ventura and south. We will see a warming day and warmest day for the week.
Saturday a system out of the gulf of Alaska drops south. This will start to affect SLO as soon as early Sunday morning.
Depending on which model you read, rain will start up sometime Sunday and fall into Monday.
“This one is pretty much a sure thing.“
Christmas Eve and Christmas Day looks like maybe some showers, but likely dryer days at this point.
Thursday looks wet again with another system bringing rain through the area.
Today’s math lesson. Look at this 18 +7=25 Christmas day is 1 week away….
Christmas week will start in a wet pattern, just like Thanksgiving.
At my company, we have a saying. It only rains on weekends and holidays.
Keeping us on our toes. Looks like Christmas will be one of those….
Enjoy the week of dry weather, it all changes next week.
Smile, it makes the day better.
12/17/19
Good Tuesday morning,
7 days till Christmas Eve day and it does feel like Christmas out there.
Cold this morning with 32 in Santa Ynez and low 40s in Santa Barbara.
The Santa Ana winds are blowing hard to the south with a 74 mile an hour gust last night in Santa Monica mountains.
Catalina harbor also has been pounded from these winds.
Wind will continue through the day, then begin to back off this afternoon.
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
For today, we will be cool in Santa Barbara with highs in the 60s. Some high clouds will filter through this morning ahead of the next system.
Tonight, low pressure moves in from the north and west. This will bring some lighter rain to SLO and northern Santa Barbara county.
Looks like the rain will draw a line in the sand right at Santa Barbara. This is not a big rain maker. Maybe 1/4 of an inch for SLO and 1/10th down to Santa Ynez.
Wednesday, the same results with only a chance of rain.
Thursday into Saturday we will have dry weather.
Sunday, we will have the next system roll in. This one looks to be stronger with more precept.
Aa a matter of fact, long range models are calling for a wet pattern through Christmas.
Have a great day, and we will give you more on Wednesday morning.
12/16/19
Good Monday morning,
We are coming off a Chilly and windy weekend in SB.
If you were paying attention to the wind direction, you would have noticed it shifted from the northwest to the northeast.
This will set up a Santa Ana wind event the next 2 days for Ventura to LA.
Winds are going to ramp up today and will blow at 60 miles an hour in the LA mountains.
The Santa Ana event will last throughout Tuesday.
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
Tuesday night a weather system moves in from the north. This will begin the rain chances.
It does appear now it will be an event that dies at Santa Barbara.Rain should occur in northern SB county and SLO. South Santa Ynez will likely see some rain.
The weather system will run into the Santa Ana event and likely just break off winds and bring some higher clouds to Ventura and south.
For Santa Barbara, we are on the edge. If we get rain, it will not be a big event.
Thursday through Saturday we will see dry weather.
Saturday night, the next weather system rolls in bringing rain to SLO and moving south of us for rain Sunday.
Have a great week, more on Tuesday morning.
12/15/19
Good chilly – windy Sunday morning,
We are starting out with chilly temps 49 degrees in SB and 45 in Santa ynez.
The is thanks to the cold front passing to the east. There will be a chance of some snow on north facing mountains and the grapevine.
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-119.71664428710938&lat=34.42616890436072#.XfZK2C-IafD
As the low moves East, the winds will shift to the Northeast. This will take the winds out of Santa Barbara and place them in Ventura and south.
A Santa Ana wind event will occur Monday and Tuesday. This will be a cold event, because the air is chilled.
Tuesday night and Wednesday rain is still into the forecast, it will be a matter of how far south this goes.
We should get a better read on this by Monday morning.
For the next 3 days we will see sun shine and cooler days and nights.
Speaking of days, the daylight starts so much later and night comes early.
The good news is 6 days until the winter solstice. Saturday the 21st will be the last day before we start to see the day light increase each day.
Also Christmas is 10 days away.
Have a Great Sunday!
I will be back bright and early Monday with the work week forecast.
12/14/19
Good Saturday morning,
Great weather the past few days with highs each day in the low 70s. It was nice to feel the sun warm our bodies.
Northwest winds last night kept us dry and warmer over night in Santa Barbara.
Today the front is running over us this morning.
This is going to do nothing in our area, but a slight chance of rain to SLO and northern SB county.
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
After the front passes, we will have another round of Northwest winds here.
This is going to keep us clear where other areas can see some drizzle and fog as onshore flow is over us.
Cool air also rolls in Sunday, there is a chance of mountain showers and possibly snow.
For us only a cooler day with highs, a few degrees lower than today. Highs in the mid 60s.
High pressure builds in and we are looking at a Santa Ana wind event Monday and Tuesday.
Ventura and south will see winds. We will see sun and cooler days and nights.
Tuesday night through Wednesday night, there is a lot of differences with the 2 long range models.
The first GFS brings rain in Tuesday night into Wednesday, and is the wettest of the 2 models.
The second EC bring rain in 12 hours later arriving Wednesday.
So it is looking like we will see some rain at this point. Once we get to the 72 hour period (Monday morning).
We will have a better feel of the rain totals.
Thursday and Friday is looking dry, with the rain giving us just a 1 day event.
Enjoy your weekend and we will set up the forecast for next week on Monday.
12/13/19
Good Friday the 13th morning,
Hope you are not superstitious. I am not, everyday should start out with the right attitude.
Today we have a dirty ridge over us, with high pressure allowing some mid to high clouds over us.
It will be a nice warm day with highs in the low 70s.
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
Tonight the ridge breaks down and low pressure over Oregon approaches.
This will bring in a chance for light rain over SLO and northern SB county.
For us, no rain SB and south. Santa Ynez might see some light rain.
Saturday night the cold air arrives, snow levels will drop to 3000 to 4000 feet. Maybe a little snow on the Interstate 5 and local mountains.
Gusty winds are expected in Santa Barbara and the mountains Saturday afternoon and into Sunday evening.
Sunday is looking sunny, but cooler. The cold air will allow chilly nights and highs in the 60s during the day.
Monday and Tuesday, the winds shift to the north east. This will bring in a cool Santa Ana event.
Winds will blow in Ventura and to the south, because of the cold air the temps will remain low.
No real heating.
Tuesday night and Wednesday, a low approaches. Depending on what model you read, we will have rain, or be dry.
The 2 long range models have no agreement at this point.
So the approach is chance of rain !!! Because we do not have a clue yet.
Thursday is looking to be sunny.
Hope everyone enjoys Friday the 13th and it is a Lucky day for you.
No fear of walking under a ladder here…
Have a great weekend.
12/12/19
Good Thursday morning,
Waking up this morning, you will notice it is a warmer start of the day.
A weak front to the north is passing and that’s what created winds last night.
As this front passes this morning, we will have a nice few days with temps above normal.
Highs will be in the mid 70s through Friday:
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
Saturday, another weak system passes through and we really will only see some wind. Slight chance of mountain rain or snow with snow levels at 4500 feet.
Sunday the low clears out, with again some northwest winds.
Monday and Tuesday is looking dry, with some Santa Ana winds.
Wednesday is our next chance for rain. Models are mixed on this. One shows rain, the other calls for dry. We will see how it shapes up as the week changes into the next.
Enjoy some warmer weather the next few days.
12/11/19
Good Wednesday morning,
Looks like lots of surfers will be ill the next few days. A west swell will make surfers quite happy.
For non surfers, there is a low to the north which will give rain to Northern California.
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
This will do nothing here. We will remain dry, with maybe some high clouds.
Later in the day we will see high pressure start to build in from the southwest.
This will warm us up for Thursday and Friday. Nice weather will prevail for theses days.
Saturday the ridge breaks down and weak low pressure moves in. This track is not favorable for rain, so only a chance in the mountains.
Sunday and Monday appear to be cooler and dry.
Tuesday, another low drops down the coast. Some rain on the central coast, we will see how far south it gets.
Wednesday through Friday, this is not clear. Models vary from high pressure building in, to clouds and periods of rain.
We will not even touch this right now.
In the meantime, enjoy the surf and warming air through Friday. I will be sticking with putting on roofs.
14 days till Christmas
12/10/19
Can you believe Christmas Eve day is just 2 weeks away…. wow that went fast….
The best news is we are looking at a dry period.
It now looks like we will see a few weak fronts pass through, but no rain for at least the next 7 days.
Today a weak front is approaching. This is going to breakdown the high and filter in some mid to high clouds.
(From the sky)
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
Wednesday the front passes, there will be no rain with this, only a little onshore flow.
Thursday and Friday, high pressure and above normal temps are in the forecast.
We will see temps some 5 degrees above normal. Highs will be in the mid 70s.
Friday should be the warmest day of the week.
Saturday another weak front passes, possibly a few mountain showers, but no rain coastal.
Sunday, we clear out and set up for some Santa Ana winds on Monday and Tuesday.
All in all, we are looking at some nice winter weather for the next week.
With all the recent rains, Santa Barbara is now 125% for normal rain for the year.
Have a great day!
12/9/19
Good clear Monday morning,
A little chill in the air outside, but we will see dry conditions this week and now looking like into early next week.
This is a welcome change after rain the the past 2 weeks.
The latest storm system that passed through has provided us good rain totals.
All coastal areas received 1 to 2 inches and the foothills and mountains 2 to 3 inches.
The showers continued on and off into the evening, but are gone.
The low is now over Mexico, and we have a ridge that has built in.
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
Today will be sunny and a few degrees warmer than yesterday, but still below normal.
Tuesday, a weak front pushes clouds through the ridge, bringing nothing more than mid to high clouds to the area.
“ No Rain “
Wednesday, the front departs and high pressure stats to build back in.
Thursday we will see our first warm up in almost a month with temps above normal.
Friday, we continue to be warm and dry.
The weekend is also looking dry, with the exception of northern SLO county, where there is a chance of rain.
The first part of next week is also looking dry. This of course is welcomed after the 2 weeks of rain.
Have a great dry week.
12/8/19
Good Sunday morning,
Another wet morning thanks to the Pineapple Express.
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
San Marcos pass has seen 1.27 inches in the last 24 hours and over 2 inches for the 2 day total. Also the rain is not over and we will see showers into the afternoon.
Looks like next week is still looking good and dry. Good news for all, as we deserve a break. Peaks of the Sun should break out in the afternoon.
Have a great day, and happy birthday Jeff.
12/7/19
Wow, what a great day to be a Oregon Ducks fan.
What a great game …. Rose bowl bound and back in the top 10.
The rain held off until the second half, then it poured down on all the Utah fans.
They are a great class of people however, it just was not their year. Leaving the stadium with my Ducks jersey on, lots had great class to say congrats.
The rain also arrived in Santa Barbara. Nice light rain has given everyone 1/4 to 1/2 inch so far, with more to come ….
Pineapple Express is lined up and will supply plenty of more moisture over the next 24 hours.
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
Rain will pick up later in the day with good south flow, this will enhance the rain over Santa Barbara and areas.
Looks like another 1/2 to 3/4 will fall. Some south facing hills could see 1 to 2 more inches.
Sunday afternoon, the rain goes away and a week of good weather is on the horizon.
It is a break we all need after 2 weeks of wet.
Next week is looking sunny and warm, with the exception of Wednesday. A weak front will pass through with just some cloud.
Enjoy the weekend, it will be a great weekend for college football. Some great games today. LSU vs Georgia, also The Ohio State vs Wisconsin.
The wet weather will give you a good reason to watch the games.
I love college football.
Enjoy.
12/6/19
Good Friday morning,
Are you ready for more rain. Ready or not here it comes again.
This system will be a lot different from the last, but will bare the same results with a fair amount of rain.
You can see low pressure to the north pulling the sub tropical jet towards us.
Yes, call it what you like, Pineapple Express, atmospheric River. You can see it here:
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
This will bring a longer period of lighter rain. Rain will start up later in the day and continue on and off into Sunday.
This has good south flow, so our Santa Barbara mountains will squeeze out more rain over SB and the hills.
Rain will stop Sunday afternoon and totals will be 1/2 to 1 inch and 1.5 plus on south facing mountains.
Basically a light steady rain.
Monday and Tuesday look dry.
Wednesday a weak disturbance comes though, but looks to be dry at this point.
Thursday and Friday we should warm up again.
Enjoy the weekend and Go Ducks.
It will be Duck like weather with rain at Levi stadium.
I will be dry and warm in a nice suite.
Have a great weekend.
12/5/19
Good Thursday morning,
Wednesday gave us quite a bit of excitement in the morning when the skies opened and dumped heavy rain for a 2 hour period.
The good news was heavy rain was short lived and did not do any real damage in the fire areas.
The rain totals were great with this system, especially in the Santa Barbara area.
everyone received 1 to 2 inches of rain. Here are the totals for SB county.
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/lox/scripts/getlocal.php?prod=LAXRRMSBA
Also for Ventura gang, here are yours.
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/lox/scripts/getlocal.php?prod=LAXRRMVTU
Today, looks to be mostly dry, but shower chances continue through the afternoon.
We could see clouds start to line the hills and build up. There is a possibility of a shower or two.
Friday day looks relativity dry, but Friday night another system affects our weather.
This will likely bring in some rain Friday night into Saturday and again Saturday night into Sunday.
Friday nights system is from subtropical moisture being pulled up by the low in northern CA.
Saturday night will be from the passing of the low.
All in all, this will be a weaker system with 1/4 to 1/2 inch south of point conception and 1/2 to 1 inch above.
The best news is that next week is setting up to be dry. Looking like Monday through Thursday we will have dry weather and a warming trend.
I love the rain, but it will be nice to see a break, then we can get back to normal work and weather.
Enjoy the rain on and off through the weekend.
I will be at Levi stadium cheer on the Pac 12 championship game.
Go Ducks !!!!
12/4/19
Good Wednesday morning,
Low pressure is spinning off shore and has been moving quite slowly.
We have only seen some light showers, but rain will pick up around 6:30 and we will see a brief period of some heavy rain.
Looks like it will dump pretty good for a 2 to 3 hour period, before turning to showers.
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
South winds have picked up and mountain areas are really feeling these winds.
Rain totals are on track .75 to 1.5 coastal and 1 to 3 inches in the hills.
Rain peak per hour could be as high as .80 to .90 per hour. This will make a mess in the burn areas this morning.
Rain turns to showers this afternoon. Showers will continue through the night.
Temps today will be a high in the 60s, which is cool, but still 10 to 12 degrees warmer than last weeks rain.
Thursday looks to be dry. With some clouds only.
Friday, a low to the north comes into play, but rain will stay north until at least Friday night.
This system never gets close enough for us to see heavy rain, but showers remain in the forecast through Sunday.
The best chance for rain is Saturday night.
Monday and Tuesday are looking dry with a warming trend looking more likely.
This is still in the long range models, so we will watch the weather as it gets closer.
Let’s hope for a dry period starting next week.
Enjoy the rain, butt dont be fooled, it is coming.
12/3/19
Good Tuesday morning,
My weather spotters report rain on the pass and Refugio beach last night.
This was a result of the moisture plume spreading South as reported in yesterday’s forecast.
Only SLO and western SB county got a trace of rain.
Today we will prepare for the next system.
This low pressure system has been spinning around over northern California the past day and has moved south and west.
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
It is around 500 miles west of point conception. The position of the low is too far west and has pulled all moisture off shore for today.
This low will begin to move east this afternoon, then rain chances begin to increase.
Rain should stay away till at least 4 pm in SLO and western Santa Barbara counties.
Santa Barbara and areas south should see no rain until the over night hours.
Rain will start up north to south around midnight. Arrive in SB around 3 am and LA just in time for the commute.
This will bring us moderate to heavy rain at times through mid afternoon Wednesday.
Then there remains a chance of showers the rest of the day.
Everyone will see .75 to 1.5 inches of rain. South facing areas like Santa Barbara hills will see around 3 inches.
Rates could exceed 1/2 inch per hour, at times.
This system will depart and leave us dry for Thursday and at least the first part of Friday.
Then, another system out of the north will bring more rain Friday night into Saturday.
This system will remain more to the north, creating less rain. Expect around 1/2 of an inch of additional rain.
We dry up Sunday and Monday. Then, we are hoping for a dry period so Jack can get some work done 😄.
We will see how next week shapes up, as we get further in this week. In the meantime, prepare for rain overnight.
Burn areas might be affected with rain rates, if they go above 1/2 per hour.
This rain, however, should put the smoldering fire out for good.
Enjoy the day.
12/2/19
Good Monday morning,
Hope everyone had a nice holiday and made it home safe and dry.
Today we will see the Pineapple Express or atmospheric river sag south a little.
For the past 36 hours, it has been focused in Monterey area where some locations have seen 10 inches of rain.
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
Today this will sag south into SLO county and tonight western Santa Barbara counties.
Looks like those areas can pick up 1/2 to 3/4 of new rain.
Tuesday it looks like the rain will stop for the day, but return overnight Tuesday.
Tuesday night into Wednesday will bring everyone more rain.
Models are beginning to slow down the Tuesday night system and may push it into the early morning hours in SB and a rough rush hour rain in LA.
We are looking at the same totals 1 to 2 inches coastal and 3 inches in the mountains through Wednesday.
Thursday looks to give us a break, but another system for Friday and Saturday.
This one, however, looks to be not as wet with 1/4 to 3/4 at this point.
All in all another wet week.
Let’s hope for a break in the rain for the week of the 9th.
12/1/19
Welcome to December, 30 more days before 2020.
The rain yesterday was exactly as advertised, however it started up slightly earlier then originally forecast.
We saw light rain for an 8 to 10 hour period with everyone seeing 1/4 to 3/4 of a inch.
Turning our focus to current.
Today we have the first atmospheric river event for the season. Steady rain will occur through Monday night from SLO to Monterey.
We might see occasional rain here, but just mostly cloudy through Monday.
You can see it on the satellite.
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
On Tuesday, the low shifts south and by midnight or early Wednesday morning, rain will spread into all areas.
Wednesday will be wet with some heavier rain from around 3am through the morning.
We are looking at 1 to 1 .5 inches coastal and 2 to 3 inches in the mountains.
Rain rates per hour is not clear at this point.
Thursday a break, but there might be another system Friday and Saturday.
This is still a ways out, but rain looks to stay in the forecast most of next week.
Enjoy the break form the rain today and Monday.
It won’t be great weather, but the wet stuff should stay to the north.
Welcome to winter and the rainy season.