12/28/17 December 28th 2017 Weather
Marching forward towards 2018 one day at a time.
We will end 2017 with great weather. Many areas will see upper 70s and low 80s for the next 3 days. If you walk outside early this morning you will be pleasantly surprised to have 56 degrees at 5 am.
Today and the next 3 days will be 15 degrees above normal for this time of year.
If you are visiting from Michigan or folks coming out to the Rose bowl you will not be disappointed. Where the East Coast is having snow, we are enjoying Summer like weather.
As you can see high pressure rules again, and is pushing clouds around our areas.This will last through Tuesday, then maybe some changes are on the horizon.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
Two of the 3 models are now calling for rain Wednesday night and into the weekend. These models have been consistent for the past few days. I am sure you will start to see this in the forecast soon.
In the meantime, enjoy the great winter weather that California brings us.
We will stay dry and warm though 2017. It does look like 2018 is going to bring us rain midweek.
Have a great day
Jack Martin
12/21/17 Thursday Morning Forecast (Without Fire Alerts)
Good Thursday morning the 21st of December.
It is great to be able to give a forecast with only a short update on the action of the fire. We can now start thinking about more pleasant things, like the holidays.
The best present we can get is to have all the fire, smoke, and ash gone. I think we are getting close to that point.
The wind of last night blew around the ash on the ground, but no new fire or ash was in site.
Now we move onto a better life in our area again. Everyone should be able to get back into their homes today.
Weather wise we are still under a big dome of high pressure. No clouds around us.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
Speaking of clouds, it was a nice site to see real clouds yesterday to replace smoke. It even rained as far south as Santa Ynez… SLO got around 1/4 of an inch, and we got the wind.
Today is also another great transition day. This will be the shortest sunlight day of the year. Starting on Friday, each day gets slightly longer. This in mind, we have 2 things to be happy for today.
The Christmas holiday is quickly approaching.
The good news is anyone coming here or staying here will not be disappointed. We will have great weather.
Christmas Day will likely be clear and in the low 80s. This will only begin to make up for almost the last 3 weeks, but we are now going in the right direction.
Ventura and Santa Ana prone areas still have one more day of crazy winds. Then you will also begin normal weather again.
We will all notice quite a drop in temps in the mornings. 40s coastal and freezing and Below in the valleys and mountains. “Well it is winter”.
Sunshine will warm us nicely each day. 
Extended forecast, no rain until the end of 2017. We can only hope for the rain to start up in 2018.
In the meantime, enjoy what we love in Santa Barbara and around our area.
A special thanks to those firemen that made it possible. You guys rock!
Everyone now will also be able to return to their homes and get ready to be thankful for their homes again.
Also let’s bring back the tourism. All the smaller shops need some help. Go out this weekend and spend some money locally.
Have a great day, 4 days till Christmas
12/20/17 Wednesday Morning Weather
This is the day we have been waiting for…. Kind of!
The idea is to get through the wind, and we will move on from this fire.
There is a low-pressure system moving down the coast right now. This will arrive here in our area this afternoon.
No rain, below Lompoc. However, it is about the wind for us in Santa Barbara tonight. It looks like the wind will begin to come up around 5 PM. It will blow fairly hard overnight.
Coastal: 15 to 25 miles per hour.
Mountains and valleys: 35 to 50 miles per hour.
This will be a classic sundowner event. This is typical of what we get at least 15 to 20 times a year. The only difference is the fire.
Here is the low marching towards us, spinning down the coast.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-WV.HTML
The good news is the firemen seem to have a pretty good handle on the fires right now. They have even opened up more areas for people to return to their homes yesterday.
The new open areas are from Foothill Rd into the mountains at Las Positas to the north. From the south Ladera Ln south is open to all again above East Valley Rd.
What is closed still… Las Positas south to Ladera above East Valley Rd and Foothill.
Here is the map, you can see it for yourself
The areas that they are keeping closed are the areas cause problems in the wind tonight. Hopefully as soon as the wind event goes though. They will lift all the mandatory areas.
Regarding the rest of the weather:
After the winds stop. It is going to be very cold. This might be the coldest temps of the year to date. Valleys and mountains are going to be freezing and below at night.
For the extended forecast.
No rain in site. Nice weather over the Christmas holiday
That’s it for the day.
Weather 12/19/17
Good Tuesday morning,
It is a good morning, I have not said this in a while. Today is going to be a nice calm day with sunshine and burnt mountains in the backround..
Many of the people that are displaced are allowed to go back into their homes, so they can begin to get ready for Christmas. This is good news for some, but many others are still locked out of the houses. People that are able to return are from East Valley Road to the beach, and Olive Mill Road and south to Toro Canyon. All other areas are still closed. They even have military personnel blocking the way into the restricted areas. They have many Hum Vee’s blocking the entrances.
The main reason for the closure is the risk of the fire returning Wednesday night. So yes, this brings us to Wednesday. Wednesday will start out slightly damp because we will have an onshore flow. This is thanks to a low that will brush us. Rain will occur from Lompoc to the north. No rain here or south, but winds will pick up from the north on Wednesday night.
This will create a 12-hour condition that will cause strong north winds. A classic sundowner wind event starting around 5 or 6 PM and last until the next morning. That is what created all the problems way back in 1990, when we had the painted cave fire. Not that this will happen again, because the hills have only 10 years of growth since the last fires. They are cautious about allowing people back into evacuation areas until this event blows though in the fire areas.
If all goes well I feel we will be out of the woods by Thursday. The wind event here will be over, and Friday I think they will begin to let people back into their homes.
Beyond Thursday. Ventura will experience wind as a new Santa Ana wind event comes back. For us in Santa Barbara, nice weather though Christmas. With Christmas day bringing a high of 72 degrees.
Also, I think the smoke will be a thing of the past.
Enjoy the nice day, then we will see what Wednesday night brings us… Beyond that, Christmas is here …. We will talk about this Christmas year for the rest of our lives, and not in a great way.
As always, we will get through this, we make the best of what we have.
12/15/17 Thomas Fire – Day 13 and Weekend Weather
Ok, where do we start. Well it is going to be about the shift in winds tonight.
Today winds will do exactly what they have done the past few days. Northeast to start the day, then shift southwest late morning. This has let firefighters use back burns in the creek and valley areas in Montecito. They burned up all the fuel from the bottom to top creating a fire break.
The fire moves around 1/2 to 1 mile west each day. It is now over San Ysidro hills. moving toward Westmont College area. I do not think it will get that far west today, but possibly Saturday.
Tonight and Saturday are going to be the danger period.
A weak front from the north will pass through today. This will not affect us until it passes. Tonight, we will see the north and northwest winds come up. It will also be windy during the day Saturday. Winds can blow up to 40 miles an hour in the hills towards structures on the ocean side of the mountain.
Saturday night a Santa Ana wind sets up again. This will blow Ventura and south. For us ,we will welcome calmness again. Critical time for Montecito is from sunset tonight though midday on Saturday.
Beyond that who really cares right now….
but no rain in site. Off shore winds again…
Thursday night next week, another north front passes and winds from the north and northwest pick up again.
Let’s hope we can get this thing out by then…..
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-119.64350493164055&lat=34.44045161277701#.WjPfQ6aIafB
12/14/17 Good News, and Not So Good News
Today, we will be clear of the smoke. It will be the best day in sometime.
The Santa Ana winds ramp up today, but will not affect us in Santa Barbara. Fire will continue, you will just see more of it, because the smoke is blowing away from us.
Friday, we will have some onshore winds, which is a good thing because the air will moisten. There is a cut-off low that is going to squeeze into the area.
Now the not so good news, behind the front on Friday night and Saturday, they are talking about a northwest wind event. This is not what we want, because the fire can possibly blow back to Montecito and down into the homes and population.
Remember plan C on the news last night. This is why they were talking about this. We will need to watch the wind and wind changes Friday night and Saturday. They are talking about up to 20 mile an hour winds from the north/northwest on Saturday.
If you know, our ocean is to the south. A north or northwest wind in our area is prone to create wind on us, like a northeast wind does in the south.
We will watch the forecast closely and see what develops.
Don’t want to alarm. We will have 36 hours, before any changes. Let’s see what happen.
We will know better on Friday morning.
Here is the forecast for the area in Montecito.
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-119.56934912109384&lat=34.433599999999984#.WjKSo6aIafA
12/11/17 Monday Fire Weather Update
Monday morning,
The fire is now upon us in SB hills. The good news is it is well a top the hills. Fire is on the back side of the hills for the most part. Of course, smoke is still upon us, however the good news is the winds are calm here. More good news is the northeast winds will turn southwest this afternoon.
So how does that help?
- The air quality will get better later this morning
- The fire will blow back on itself. “Call it a natural fire break!!”
Tonight, the wind does go back to the northeast and we will have the same switch back Tuesday afternoon to the south west. (This is for Santa Barbara area only.)
In Ventura and south, the northeast winds will continue. There will blow 25 to 40 miles an hour In the hills.
The only good in site:
Friday there will be an inside slider. This will bring back the onshore flow. That is the best news. The moisture will go up and calm the fire. For the record, there is no downhill wind support to push the fire into Santa Barbara. Where the fire is in view in Summerland, it is way up in the hills. It is not threating the coastal areas at this point..
That’s all the good news I can give for Santa Barbara.
Sadly, the smoke is now moving north. Santa Ynez, Lompoc, Santa Maria, SLO and areas to the north are all being affected now .
Have a good day , or make the best of it.
12/6/17 Wow, Fire and Wind in Ventura
Another rough day in Southern California. It seems there are fires everywhere. A new one just broke out by the Getty center and the 405 freeway. This is going to be a commuter’s nightmare, due to This and numerous other fires with freeways closures. I think there are now 5 major fires in Southern California area. … jeez
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-119.25008676031617&lat=34.27193598198497#.Wif8Z6aIbxw
Well the only positive news that I can give for today is the winds will calm for the day.
Unfortunately, tonight and overnight a strong high pressure is going to kick up the Santa Ana winds again. Winds from the northeast should climb to 70 miles per hour in the mountains, and coastal areas to 50 miles per hour.
This condition will last through Thursday.
Friday will still be windy, but not as bad. The wind and Santa Ana event is the only weather to report.
Cold nights with days in 70s to 80. No rain in sight.
We will hope the fire crews can get a handle on some of these fires today.
Sorry for anyone that has lost their home. We have seen fires like this in Santa Barbara. Very similar to the 1990 painted cave fire.
Be safe everyone.
12/5/17 Fire and Wind in Ventura
Well sadly this is exactly what we feared. The winds in Ventura and south are blowing up to 70 miles an hour in the mountains and 50 to 60 miles an hour coastal . The fire is moving west towards Ventura.
The winds are going to continue to blow hard this morning and then begin to taper this afternoon. Winds will calm some, but another big event comes in Wednesday night into Thursday. These winds are making it almost impossible to stop.
It basically reminds me of the painted cave fire in 1990. You just cannot stop it until the winds slow down. It is going to be a long day in Ventura.
For the rest of us, it just really cold at night and warm days. No wind in SB.
For my friends in Ventura area, we will hope the winds slow up and the fire crews can get their arms around this. They will have a short 24 to 36 hours before wild wind pick up again Wednesday night.
150 structures at least have gone down, with more to come.