Tuesday December 27th
Good morning,
I hope everyone had a nice Christmas and were able to enjoy a few days off.
This week will start off like a good Christmas present. Sunny and warm for the next 3 days. This is thanks to high pressure and off shore winds. Highs Wednesday and Thursday will be in the 70s. “It has been awhile since we have felt warm.” However, lows will still be quite cold at night.
On Thursday things begin to change. Remember the low that passed off shore on Sunday. Well it is parked to the south spinning around (take a look)
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-ft.html
This is just like last Wednesday’s system. A cut off low will be drifting northward. This will happen Thursday night into Friday. This is another one of those systems that we do not clearly understand.
We will call for some rain, although were not sure how much until it is almost here.
Then there is Saturday. It does look like rain is in our New Years Eve day forecast. This one is likely. This system is coming from the north. We will watch the track and see how much rain will appear. It is still too early to know.
Rain is likely to arrive Saturday morning on the central coast, and then spread into LA just in time for New Year’s celebrations.
The start of 2017 looks to be dry for at least the first 2 days, but lots of wind.
Ok, now you are caught up with the weather.
As always stay tuned.
12/14/16 Are You Ready……
Ok here she blows. Rain and southeast winds are going to make this one a good storm.
Take a look at the graphic or link. They are showing a flash flood watch for the entire area.
Just a FYI flash flood watch does not mean we are going to have it. We are only watching out for the possibility. A WARNING means it will likely happen.
Ok onward with the forecast.
It is looking quite nice for a good windy, heavier rain event. The satellite is looking good, driving the south jet into the area. Combining with the low, it is going to make a classic wet storm. Look at the loop, it is taking shape.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
So when will it start? Well rain is north right now (bay area). The low drifts south later today and early Thursday morning the rain starts on the central coast and drop south.
Rain should hit SB between 10 am and noon. Rain will start lighter, then pick up. Heaviest rain will be from 6 PM to midnight for SB. 3pm to 9pm on the central coast , 8pm to 2 am Ventura south. LA 11pm to 6 am.
Winds will be out of the southeast and drive the rain into houses that face this direction. 
It will be one of those rains that structures leak from wind and water driving into walls, windows and doors that face to the south or east.
It will be a 24 hour event. Not raining all the time, but in the middle it will be heavy.
I hope no one needs to go to LA on Friday morning. The roads will be a mess, with lots of fender benders.
All in all rain totals coastal around 1 inch, mountains 1 to 3 inches… Santa Barbara more, because of our south facing mountains. We should see better mountain and coastal totals.
Oh today. Mid to high clouds. No excitement . Rain starts overnight. North to south.
The weekend will be dry but cool. Winds will blow hard from the northwest Friday afternoon and night.
PUT your Swans in a safe, wind sheltered area.
Snow levels will start out high, because the sub-tropical jet is going to keep levels at around 8000 ft. As the cold low arrives Friday morning, levels drop to 5000 feet. It will be a cool weekend.
Windy on Friday afternoon as the wind shifts to the northwest.
Enjoy the fun.. It is going to be a good storm!
12/13/16 Rain Is On Track For Thursday
Good Tuesday morning,
We are on track for a wet Thursday and Thursday night. Take a look at the link, you will see the low to the north in the Gulf of Alaska which is in the driver’s seat.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
This low will begin to sag south, and will push a good subtropical jet of clouds over us. The low combined with subtropical jet will create a good rain event for us.
We should see rain starting around 10am Thursday morning in SB. SLO Wednesday night. And Santa Ynez in between. We should see a nice 12 hours of rain with 3 to 6 hours of heavy rain.
To add more fuel to this, we are going to have southeast winds. This will channel the winds into our South facing mountains a squeeze out as much rain as possible. Also wind for us.
This will be the best storm to date this year. Heavier rains will produce much needed run off into our lakes and streams.
In the meantime, expect night and morning clouds and Fog the next 2 days. Also after the fog clears you will see mid-level clouds over head. None of this means rain, until the low drops to the south.
The weekend is looking dry, but cold… or at least below normal temps.
Expected rain totals: SB coastal 1 to 2 inches. Mountains 2 to 4 inches. Other areas that are not south facing will be less. .75 to 1.5 coastal and more in the hills.
Enjoy, this is going to be a good one …
12/12/16 Good Monday Morning
It looks like our weather is good through Wednesday. Not much in excitement until Thursday. If you look at the daily graphic Thursday night, says “HEAVY RAIN.”
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-119.82323141110199&lat=34.43943640637926#.WE6tu9Q76hA
Rain will move into the central coast on Wednesday night and then move south. Rain will begin in Santa Barbara some time Thursday around mid-day. By Thursday evening and night we are looking at HEAVY rain.
This system will be warm with snow levels at 8000 feet and then drop to 5000. Snow lovers will not appreciate this…. The system also has good rotation with counter clockwise winds from the southeast.This means, more rain and heavier for Santa Barbara. Mountains are looking to get 2 to 4 inches. Coastal areas 1 to 1 1/2 inches. This will be the best storm of the season.
Friday will have showers and then it looks like partly cloudy skies for the weekend as we dry out.
This should be a pretty exciting late work week storm
Get ready for some Action……
12/7/16 Will it Rain??
That is the million dollar question? It will rain from Santa Ynez north… for Santa Barbara and south it still looks like we will be right at the cut-off.
Rain chances begin Thursday night from Lompoc north. If Lompoc gets any rain it will be recorded in the 100s of an inch, meaning light rain- drizzle. Areas north are going to get more. SLO is looking like 1/3 of an inch.
Friday the system begins to sag. It looks like rain will fall in SLO and part of Santa Barbara County. Rain in Santa Ynez and to the north, but it looks like Santa Barbara city and south will stay dry.
One thing for sure, It does not appear the rain will make it to LA or even Ventura.
Saturday is the same way. Clouds do hang around and there are impulses that could bring rain to Santa Ynez and north.
The rain almost hits SB, but seem like it will not at this point. Complete confidence in the forecast for Santa Barbara is not 100 percent for the following reason. Today is Wednesday and we are working with computer models.
We will see if this changes the rain- no rain cut off with in the next 48 hours.
In the meantime, stay tuned and have a great day.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
12/5/16 This Week’s Weather
Good Monday morning,
Here we go another start to the work week. We are going to have a mixed bag of weather this week. A little of everything.
Today will be sunny and nice, with some fog in Santa Ynez and central coast.
Tonight will bring fog to most areas, except where northwest winds blow.
Tuesday there will be fog in the morning with on shore flow, followed by wind Tuesday afternoon and night for SB with winds from the northwest.
Wednesday the winds shift to the northeast Dry day.
Thursday a chance of rain begins from the north to the south. It appears at this point that rain chances will be mainly to the north, but may get into Santa Barbara County. We will need to wait and see…
Friday through Sunday a few weak systems pass over bringing a chance of rain at times, but bottom line, we have a few systems coming and going. Tuesday the first is dry and we will just get some on shore flow and damp mornings, which then is followed by wind. After that passes, the next arrives on Thursday. Rain chance start Thursday morning and then move south. The wettest model show rain for Santa Barbara, but the other 2 keep it to the north for now.
Friday through the weekend we have a few weak systems that could bring rain at times. Too early to make a call in when. Looks to be light however.
Stay tuned………